get rid of later if you have to but I think (not a big CFB fan so I maybe missing something) that this line goes up quite a bit on gameday espically when you compare some numbers. Public will be all over a small favorite and possibile decent scalp/middle should be out there. I just grabbed some -3 -103 at Pinny and -3 -105 at the Greek. Hopefully line creeps back to 4 or higher for a decnt middle/scalp and stay heavy one side (haven't figured that one out yet). It's time to get our bowling shoes on.:realtongu
Me not a big CFB fan either, but my concern is how the line for BYU has gone down from the opening line(s) of -5. I don't know if it means that early sharps hit Oregon hard (but why would they based on the pulse/buzz around?) or that the books think Oregon is the correct SU winner so they are trying to get more bets on BYU at -3 than -5.
I don't think this line is going to "bounce back up"; some particular games, sure, but not so sure about this one. In any case, yes, in my square opinion, BYU -2.5 or -3 seem to be the RIGHT play.
* CalvinTy
I don't think this line is going to "bounce back up"; some particular games, sure, but not so sure about this one. In any case, yes, in my square opinion, BYU -2.5 or -3 seem to be the RIGHT play.
* CalvinTy
Might be right from a money movement point of view, as squares no doubt will believe TCU rout is correlated to BYU winning.
Whether or not this is true would be irrelevant to someone like Ice who is merely looking to play back.
As for the actual right side, have no clue how Ducks will react being in Vegas before X-mas, but have hard time believing Cougars will have seen team speed Quack Attack brings.
In summary, I pretty much said nothing.:drink:
Whether or not this is true would be irrelevant to someone like Ice who is merely looking to play back.
As for the actual right side, have no clue how Ducks will react being in Vegas before X-mas, but have hard time believing Cougars will have seen team speed Quack Attack brings.
In summary, I pretty much said nothing.:drink:
uppy:Heh, yep, nice post, GD. After all, this thread is about line movement, not picking sides so guess it doesn't matter if all of us like BYU (or not)...
That said, BYU -3 at low juice (-103, -105) have been available for at least a day, probably a day & half (confirmed since Monday around noon Eastern)... I know this becuz I still subscribe to a service pick with a year's subscription (from 8 months ago), and the 'capper mentioned 2 days ago that he has a play on BYU at -3.5 & the line had gone down half-point that same day when I checked.
Now after the TCU rout, I'm not seeing much line change at all. Guess it'll be morning before squares react to that, :lolBIG:.
Heck, I thought I saw Raj or Skins mention one was taking BYU at -2.5 at Hollywood. I had checked the Hollywood line immediately (to see if any book really broke the 3-pt barrier) but it was -3 without logging in, etc.
Anyway, BYU line going back to -4 or -4.5, I just don't see it *yet*.
* CalvinTy
That said, BYU -3 at low juice (-103, -105) have been available for at least a day, probably a day & half (confirmed since Monday around noon Eastern)... I know this becuz I still subscribe to a service pick with a year's subscription (from 8 months ago), and the 'capper mentioned 2 days ago that he has a play on BYU at -3.5 & the line had gone down half-point that same day when I checked.
Now after the TCU rout, I'm not seeing much line change at all. Guess it'll be morning before squares react to that, :lolBIG:.
Heck, I thought I saw Raj or Skins mention one was taking BYU at -2.5 at Hollywood. I had checked the Hollywood line immediately (to see if any book really broke the 3-pt barrier) but it was -3 without logging in, etc.
Anyway, BYU line going back to -4 or -4.5, I just don't see it *yet*.
* CalvinTy
situationally, Oregon is in a great spot. Oregon Coach has a winning bowl record and does a great job in these games. Also BYU may be disappointed they did not get invited to a bigger bowl. I think these are the facts that have made the line dropped and gets people looking at the Ducks. This is not my view but the thinking that seems to be out there. They bowl games need to be capped a little different that the reg season for sure. If a team is disappointed with their bowl then they usually do not do well. G/L
Ice I know you started this thread about the BYU game but also take a look at Fla St +4.5 against UCLA. Great spot for FSU here. UCLA coming off a huge win against rival USC to knock them out of the BCS title game. FSU does have a very good defense, allows less than 100 rush yards per game. Bowl dogs allowing less than 100 yds per game have a great ATS bowl record, I don't remember it exactly but it was something like 30-10 ATS over the last 25 years.
Tom Brady#1 said:
BYU is thrilled to death to be playing Oregon. HC Mendenhall is a former Oregon State coach...He also replaced Oregon OC Crowton and rebuilt the program. BYU sold out the stadium a month before it was being played and here is the kicker....they bought 75% of Oregon's allotment too.
Oregon has more speed and the better skill guys. If this game was being played at the start of the season rather than the end, Oregon would win by double digits.
But if Oregon is not well prepared, and the primary focus since the civil war is their new gay-flame helmet, and turn the ball over at all, BYU is going to mow them over.
PP:
Las Vegas Bowl: BYU -3.5 -105 vs. Oregon
Of the early Bowl games, this is the highest volume match-up. We opened BYU as 7-point favorites, but the early sharps sucked out all the value, backing the Ducks until the line stabilized where it is now. Although BYU is 10-2, they’re only ranked 19th due to a soft schedule. The Cougars played only one ranked team this year, losing to Boston College 23-20.
Oregon won its first four games and then stumbled, finishing the season at 7-5 with three consecutive losses. Although the two teams are very close in the computer rankings, Oregon’s season-ending slump is making a lot of players think twice before backing the Ducks.
Las Vegas Bowl: BYU -3.5 -105 vs. Oregon
Of the early Bowl games, this is the highest volume match-up. We opened BYU as 7-point favorites, but the early sharps sucked out all the value, backing the Ducks until the line stabilized where it is now. Although BYU is 10-2, they’re only ranked 19th due to a soft schedule. The Cougars played only one ranked team this year, losing to Boston College 23-20.
Oregon won its first four games and then stumbled, finishing the season at 7-5 with three consecutive losses. Although the two teams are very close in the computer rankings, Oregon’s season-ending slump is making a lot of players think twice before backing the Ducks.
As several posters have noted, the line on byu dropped from around -6 or 7 to -3, and only now is the juice starting to creep upward.
I can't rightly figure why the 50% drop from the opener. It may be because a starting Cougar corner was declared out after the line was posted, and the other starting cb is questionable. Still, that's a big plunge for one player, or maybe two.
Oregon is one of the nation's worst teams in turnover ratio, while BYU is one of the best. Schedule strenght is of course a factor, but so is motivation, and after losing a tough one in the same bowl last year BYU should be very focused. And they're used to Vegas, and mainly Mormons to boot, who don't gamble. This bowl is a comedown for Oregon. Some of the Ducks players (at the Venetian) have been slamming the slots.
BTW, Belotti in the bowls only has one SU win more than loss, not a Bowden or Paterno type bowl record.
I can't rightly figure why the 50% drop from the opener. It may be because a starting Cougar corner was declared out after the line was posted, and the other starting cb is questionable. Still, that's a big plunge for one player, or maybe two.
Oregon is one of the nation's worst teams in turnover ratio, while BYU is one of the best. Schedule strenght is of course a factor, but so is motivation, and after losing a tough one in the same bowl last year BYU should be very focused. And they're used to Vegas, and mainly Mormons to boot, who don't gamble. This bowl is a comedown for Oregon. Some of the Ducks players (at the Venetian) have been slamming the slots.
BTW, Belotti in the bowls only has one SU win more than loss, not a Bowden or Paterno type bowl record.
