Key numbers in NBA?

xpanda · Dec 20, 2006

Never bet an NBA basketball game in my life, looking to start by next season. Needing to do a little homework first, of course, so want to start with the key number issue. What are they, for sides and totals, in NBA? Anyone know the approximate frequency that they occur as well?

Thanks in advance!

Fishhead · Dec 20, 2006

There has been many great threads on this over the years, a couple just recently.

Many varied opinions on the subject.

Fishhead · Dec 20, 2006

Fishhead said:
There has been many great threads on this over the years, a couple just recently.

Many varied opinions on the subject.

Numbers 2-10 have a REAL value of 7-8 cents per half point for the most part.......with the numbers 2 and 7 being slightly higher and in the 8-10 cent range.

Some will argre that the numbers 5, 8 , and 9 should be valued higher than the 7-8 cent range also.

xpanda · Dec 20, 2006

Fishhead said:
Numbers 2-10 have a REAL value of 7-8 cents per half point for the most part.......with the numbers 2 and 7 being slightly higher and in the 8-10 cent range.

Some will argre that the numbers 5, 8 , and 9 should be valued higher than the 7-8 cent range also.

Great info, THANKS!

I remember a while back reading an article that outlined the exact number of times certian point differentials have come up in NFL, NBA and NHL, but cannot for the life of me find it again.

Will have to keep digging.

Doug · Dec 20, 2006

Info credit to SBR's Ganchrow

<TABLE class=tborder id=post3562861 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_3562861><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ats>Spread</TD><TD class=ats>N</TD><TD class=ats>Freq.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>1</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3,413</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.05%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>2</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3,839</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.04%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>3</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4,631</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.91%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>4</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4,925</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.51%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>5</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4,829</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.47%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>6</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4,455</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.15%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>7</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3,978</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.40%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>8</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3,429</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.37%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>9</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2,983</TD><TD class=ats align=right>5.20%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>10</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2,486</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.26%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>11</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,884</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.98%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>12</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,457</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.43%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>13</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,168</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.94%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>14</TD><TD class=ats align=right>880</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.98%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>15</TD><TD class=ats align=right>612</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.41%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>16</TD><TD class=ats align=right>388</TD><TD class=ats align=right>6.19%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>17</TD><TD class=ats align=right>221</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.07%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>18</TD><TD class=ats align=right>132</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.27%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>19</TD><TD class=ats align=right>52</TD><TD class=ats align=right>5.77%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><HR>Methodology:

All NBA regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 17<SUP>th</SUP> of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (18,368 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 1 point of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 2 and 4.
This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

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xpanda · Dec 20, 2006

Awesome, thanks!

Redneckman · Dec 20, 2006

Fishhead said:
Numbers 2-10 have a REAL value of 7-8 cents per half point for the most part.......with the numbers 2 and 7 being slightly higher and in the 8-10 cent range.

Some will argre that the numbers 5, 8 , and 9 should be valued higher than the 7-8 cent range also.

You should be selling 1/2 points at Pinnacle then, especially off of the 2 and 7. I'm sure you are. :103631605