Magica10 said:
Bzzt!
The vast majority of public opinion polls can be conducted with a sample size of roughly 1000 people, to within a confidence rate of 5%. And that's for a poll covering the general population.
A 3,000-person sample size as a representation of sports bettors on a specific game in a specific sport is about six times what you'd need for a +/- of 3% in almost all circumstances.
What good is opinion if they are basically flipping a coin or making picks on a game they have little to no knowledge of. That's the point I am making. In politics, you always have the "not sure" option. At wagerline these guys feel compelled to make a pick on every last thing regardless. They also put the max units on every last play too.xpanda said:
RobFunk said:
Have you been to a bar on sunday during football season? How much knowledge do most of these people have. "how can the jags lose to houston twice in one season." "How can the number 3 ranked team be a dog to the 14 ranked team?"
Do you honestly think the majority of cappers spend more than 2 minutes deciding who they will take? I have known plenty of cappers and they may spend 30 seconds deciding who they will take.
Again, i am not advocating fading wagerline at all. That is a terrible idea. nor is it good to simply fade the public. But knowing where the public is leaning is at the very least a useful too. And wagerline gives us an indicator of that. Not 100 percent accurate, but more accurate than simply guessing.
Primetime,
What you say is very true except the last bit. Your guessing that the others arent guessing. The only way you know the Public lean is to know where the figures lead the Cappers. For example, in order to find the true line the TD part of the equation may be 18.5 but you cant score 18.5 in TDs so lots of cappers will come up with 14, immediately giving that Team a 4.5 lean in their figures. If you see ACE-ACE his My line Vs Books is the epitome of what Im talking about. Green Bay was -3.5 last night and ACE made it Minny -4, that might sound crazy but the actual lean was up to -7, the whole thing got distorted by the Books heavy lean towards Green Bay. Tonights a different story, the true line was Kansas -4.5 with a Public lean to -7 the books this time has gone along with that so they are on the same side. as you see, its a lot more complicated than just looking up Wagerline and making a statement.:drink:
What you say is very true except the last bit. Your guessing that the others arent guessing. The only way you know the Public lean is to know where the figures lead the Cappers. For example, in order to find the true line the TD part of the equation may be 18.5 but you cant score 18.5 in TDs so lots of cappers will come up with 14, immediately giving that Team a 4.5 lean in their figures. If you see ACE-ACE his My line Vs Books is the epitome of what Im talking about. Green Bay was -3.5 last night and ACE made it Minny -4, that might sound crazy but the actual lean was up to -7, the whole thing got distorted by the Books heavy lean towards Green Bay. Tonights a different story, the true line was Kansas -4.5 with a Public lean to -7 the books this time has gone along with that so they are on the same side. as you see, its a lot more complicated than just looking up Wagerline and making a statement.:drink:
Magica10 said:
agreed..... wagerline is just one place that tries to paint a picture of where money is going, however using votes instead of actual bets placed. There are sites that do offer percentages on 10s of thousands of bets actually made with real money. Gives you a little more educated look at some games if you are trying to bet against money, but people just assume it is as easy as looking at a list and picking a Team, although if used right it can definately help.
