Tom Brady#1 said:
NY Yankees versus Boston Red Sox line at Pinny is -125/+117
line at BetJam is -115/+105.
You would bet Boston +117 at Pinny and NYY -115 at BetJam so you would LOCK in a profit no matter who wins. So for example if you bet Boston -1000/+1170 (+117 at Pinny) and NY Yankees -1162/+1010 (-115 price at BJ.) Now if Boston wins you win $8 and if NYY wins you win $10.
THanks. So you would need a lot of outs I would imagine? Also kind of a lot of work to seek,search and calculate the scalps too? Yeah this might be worth some effort. A consistent profit would be nice even a snails pace during bases because it is my far the hardest to beat straight up in my opinion. Thanks.
Tom, what I have been doing successfully over the last few months is to take leads with bonus offers early in the day and then scalp it 2 hours before game time. Usually you can find middling opportunities, bonus whoring opportunities and pure scalping opportunities. In the case it doesn't work out, you can stick with your initial lead bet at very good odds due to the bonus or just find outs that also contain bonuses to lessen the amount of chalk you have to eat.
it can be done with good bonus' (i say 50% cash/100% Bonus Play)..very little knowledge and decent rollover requirement...you cant lose money even if your inexperienced....
just have to use the exchanges or pinny as the scalp book...then you hope you lose at the bonus book...if you win...it takes a little longer to roll it over...unless its a smaller rollover....but still you wont lose money even if your not patient and taking small -scalps
just have to use the exchanges or pinny as the scalp book...then you hope you lose at the bonus book...if you win...it takes a little longer to roll it over...unless its a smaller rollover....but still you wont lose money even if your not patient and taking small -scalps
I'm not good at predicting line movement as some of the experts here like Fish and ICE but I look for certain potential middling numbers and then base on who Pinny is leaning towards, I usually use my bonus sites and fade the line with my bonus, usually equate to a +100 bet. So then later I'll look for middling opportunities and scalping opportunities. If the lines doesn't change by the time the game starts, usually a even bet that is fading against a Pinny lean can stand on its own and is a long term winner. However, in the case when the odds go against you, I usually find another bonus to lessen the blow.
It's not a entirely bonuswhoring method but it's a good way to scalp/middle/bonus whore/straight betting all at the same time. I'm still learning to perfect this method by learning about exchanges but this method has been working for me as of late.
It's not a entirely bonuswhoring method but it's a good way to scalp/middle/bonus whore/straight betting all at the same time. I'm still learning to perfect this method by learning about exchanges but this method has been working for me as of late.
see you at the poker table.
Scalping can be hugely profitable, but sucks away at the cire of your life. Becuase if you are not scalping, you KNOW you are missing an opportinity to make money. It works great with bonus whoring, and developing a good relationship with a few books you are "losing" at to get better than advertised reloads.
gl
Scalping can be hugely profitable, but sucks away at the cire of your life. Becuase if you are not scalping, you KNOW you are missing an opportinity to make money. It works great with bonus whoring, and developing a good relationship with a few books you are "losing" at to get better than advertised reloads.
gl
Yes, it can be hard to do as it requires more time and work. I realize this is better for those who can either work at home or can study line movements at their work if possible. Also, pure arbing opportunities are very hard to find (as in Iceman's great example above; that was a 2-cent arb example -115 & +117 on exactly same line).Tom Brady#1 said:
So I sometimes take small risk in creating polish arbs; this means that you are exposed at a line/number for example by either a potential push/loss or loss both ways:
Team A -2.5 -105 at Book X
Team B +2 +113 at Book P
If Team B loses the game by exactly 2, I would push that wager *BUT* lose the Team A wager. Any other number and results would give me a nice 8-cent polish arb. This opportunity is much easier to find/create these days, especially with Pinny as one of your outs (to get the + juice via the drop-down menu, etc).
I have an actual example on above for tonight's NBA game btwn Phoenix/Dallas. Pinny had Phoenix at +3 -105, but I sold the full point to +2 +113 when I saw that some other books had moved the line down to +2.5- already. My other book had opened at Dallas -2.5 -110 originally (Bodog) so I figure that it would drop down to -2 -110 by today (it did).
Though, I gave up and instead of getting a pure 3-cent arb, I now have a 8-cent polish arb as I decided to nab -2.5 -105 at Bodog when they adjusted the line a little bit.
So with just a nickel bet on each side, I will have either $7 or $32 profit on the 8-cent polish arb as long as Phoenix doesn't lose by exactly 2.
Do that with a few games or use Pinny Live betting to scalp any pre-game bets you have already made, etc. Lot of information that people can give in those threads on this.
Cheers,
* CalvinTy
Tom & others:
Since I'm in the mood to illustrate further on my previous post, let me paste the visible concept here on my line of thinking & actual attempted bets:
Now let me paste another snapshot with a more generic example of a real arb using dime bets & how it can really add up money-wise...
See how you can profit $33.02 no matter what happens if you found -105 at one book but +112 at another book, as long as both books took dime bets and that you have an exact opposite line (-2.5 and +2.5; or ML itself).
Those $33.02 adds up several times a week (I haven't tried this much yet, though, but Fishhead & others can vouch for that experience...)
* CalvinTy
Since I'm in the mood to illustrate further on my previous post, let me paste the visible concept here on my line of thinking & actual attempted bets:
Now let me paste another snapshot with a more generic example of a real arb using dime bets & how it can really add up money-wise...
See how you can profit $33.02 no matter what happens if you found -105 at one book but +112 at another book, as long as both books took dime bets and that you have an exact opposite line (-2.5 and +2.5; or ML itself).
Those $33.02 adds up several times a week (I haven't tried this much yet, though, but Fishhead & others can vouch for that experience...)
* CalvinTy
CalvinTy said:Tom & others:
Since I'm in the mood to illustrate further on my previous post, let me paste the visible concept here on my line of thinking & actual attempted bets:
Now let me paste another snapshot with a more generic example of a real arb using dime bets & how it can really add up money-wise...
See how you can profit $33.02 no matter what happens if you found -105 at one book but +112 at another book, as long as both books took dime bets and that you have an exact opposite line (-2.5 and +2.5; or ML itself).
Those $33.02 adds up several times a week (I haven't tried this much yet, though, but Fishhead & others can vouch for that experience...)
* CalvinTy
Been doing this for years on a much higher volume scale.
This is one of many, many ways one can add to their bottomline as a successful gambler......be they recreational, semi-pro, or professional.
Nice job CalvinTy.....
No to both questions. I see in my spreadsheet that I have made about 10-15 polish arbs in the last 2 months (I don't "seek out" those; I simply only consider them when I happen to be staring at SBRLines & see some line movement that intrigued me *or* that it's halftime in NBA and I have both of my books up to compare the sides/totals, etc).Valuebets said:
But what I do in my head... I have a few guidelines for myself:
1.) no full polish middle (i.e. -6.5 +109 and +5.5 -103; which means I could lose both bets if something falls on -6+!!! I don't care if it's NBA game total like O196.5 +109 and U195.5 +103 for a 12-cent potential polish arb, I will PASS just because of *that risk of game hitting on 196*.)
2.) if pure arb, the sky is the limit regarding wagering amounts, obviously... so no qualms with dime bets even if my total BR is still under 10K. *but* for polish arb, I limit to nickel bets on each side with one side having a push "at worst" so I only can lose a maximum of $500-$550 at any given time.
3.) So that if that bad experience that *will come for me; it has NOT come yet...* in where the game falls on that pushed number, I can handle losing $500-$550 to be made up by 2 separate wagers straight up in the future. (I don't have a "unit" since I am using a money management system in my spreadsheet but my average/median wagers are $100-$250 for any handicapped games. So I'd just wager $250-$275 each and go on a 2-0, 3-1, 4-2 record ---2 more bets won than lost as the goal--- to erase that bad polish arb.)
4.) Yes, the risk/reward looks horrible because it can be average of like $5 profit but risking $500's so I have been selective on this so far... for polish arbs, I will not bother with "3 cents differential"... I'd do this if at least 7 cents or preferably more to justify just a teensy bit...
After saying all that, I much rather focus on great scalping opporunities by betting a ML pre-game where I have a lean on Bodog... then using Pinny Live, while in-game spread/totals change quite a bit, the one constant is what? The game moneyline! So, I am having great success on this so far with no bad experiences *yet*. See my post on this thread by OMT yesterday for a perfect example:
http://forum.therx.com/showpost.php?p=3608377&postcount=16
I personally see that I make more from scalping than polish arbs even as both carry a similar kind of risk, just because all THANKS to live betting, really.
* CalvinTy
Speak of the devil. :lolBIG:Valuebets said:
The only outcome I didn't want to happen did happen, Phoenix losing by exactly 2 (99-101). That was not even like 2% mathematical chance (according to previous discussions on this subject on forums), but it hit, haha. So there goes my 1st bad experience with polish arbs, down $525 on that bet as that spreadsheet snapshot illustrates.
To make it ironic, it was not because of line movement but rather it was because I couldn't wait to close the scalp/arb by waiting for Dallas -2 -110 than being impatient and taking -2.5 -105 to match up with my Phoenix +2 +113 (instead of +3 -105).
Lesson being learned. Time to get that moola back.
* CalvinTy
