The biggest myth in handicapping

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If you bet mostly unders, you will come out ahead in the longrun.





Lets just get rid of that notion please. It is so false its not even funny.

I have heard this for years and years, over 90% of my totals bets have been on unders and I am a lifetime loser betting unders.

Now im not saying this just because I have been losing, just look at the numbers historically. There is no advantage in the stats in taking the unders vs the overs.

The only advantage is on television games like monday night football where the closing number is always going to be higher than the opening number. These are good for middles sometimes.

But other than that, lets please trash this famous false statement.
 

Redpimp Ghost.
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same goes for betting dogs all the time....

there is even an interesting stat that leans heavily for particular favorites in football...

Problem is that you need a huge bank roll to play this stat and make some profit
 

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How about "bet more when you are winning and less when you are losing"?
 

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My favorite is "I will bet less games because the juice will get you if you bet too many games."

What the hell does that mean? If every bet you make is a +ev (and it should be if you are betting it) than you the more bets the merrier. 10,000 54% bets are better than 1,000 54% bets.
 

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RobFunk said:
My favorite misconception too.


This is not a misconception at all in my view. Talk to real pros and most will tell you they bet more dogs.
 

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Iceman said:
My favorite is "I will bet less games because the juice will get you if you bet too many games."

What the hell does that mean? If every bet you make is a +ev (and it should be if you are betting it) than you the more bets the merrier. 10,000 54% bets are better than 1,000 54% bets.

That is an exact quote from one cappers website that is totally absurd. It makes zero sense as you showed.
 

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Tom Brady#1 said:
That is an exact quote from one cappers website that is totally absurd. It makes zero sense as you showed.

It means that if you have a mathematical edge on every play you make, the more bets (volume) you make, the more money you'll profit. This is true. Conversely, if you don't have the edge, or you have the edge sometimes, but you also make marginal plays that cancel out your "edge" plays, you'll be punished. You have to be able to recognize a mathematical edge or you'll never win in the long run.
 

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Dogs and unders hit at say 52%...that means you should be aiming to have about 52% of your plays be dogs and unders...not 70% or 80% or whatever. However, betting all dogs or all unders is more profitable (at least less detrimental) than betting coin-flips.

Also, betting lots of games will only kill you if can't win anyway. Betting 20 games instead of 10 only doubles what you would have done in 10 games, whether that's a good thing or bad.


It's all pretty simple math.
 

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There are a lot of myths in this regard. So many pros swear they won't lay over -150 in baseball and won't lay more than 3 points in NFL. Whatever works for each person, but there is money to be made in every single situation you can come up with. Find the right situations for teams that are huge favorites or huge dogs, find the right spots for under high totals and over low totals. I hear countless times on the radio analysts saying "I can't bet the game with the number like it is". Really? Is there a law against it? Will both sides of the wager be losers? Of course not!

What people probably should say is "be careful when betting favorites and overs." This is true because human nature is to favor these two more often than not.

However I have to say the public is getting quite sophisticated these days so it may not apply like it did in the past. Don't know if it is more intelligent money coming in compared to fewer square dollars, or if it is just the squares are getting sharper. Bottom line is in the past a week like this one would have very different betting action. It used to seem like 95% of the time time a favored team with something to play for going against a team with nothing but pride to play for would get bet up. The squares loved betting the must-win against the who-cares. Look at the board this week. Skins getting money, Raiders getting money, a bunch of other situations holding steady or seeing only slight moves. I remember 6 point moves not too long ago, nothing of the sort has been happening this year.
 

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Terrefic post WB.

Agree with the comments about the public. There is no doubt a higher % of people looking at things they didnt or couldnt before. Wether it be the forums, articles or being able to watch more games and scout teams for themselves.
 

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like Wildbill is saying.....stick to what works for you. Some people may specialize in one division or a particular sport.

For me
- I'll never lay more than -3. I'll lay whatever vig I get charged but I'll take the hook from -3.5 every time(but never over -140 vig or its a no play)
-Caution to the side of safety on big faves(just hate laying anything).
-Theres many key ttls in foots I'll always buy around. 38,44,45,42,37,etc.
-Never put too much on an NBA under when the ttls over 210.
-The art of the pass is beautiful NO.......One great edge we have over bookmakers is we don't have to have action on every single game, we can pick and choose our spots. If you have any second guesses for whatever reason, just pass. There's many games tomorrow.
 

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Anti-liberal said:
It means that if you have a mathematical edge on every play you make, the more bets (volume) you make, the more money you'll profit. This is true. Conversely, if you don't have the edge, or you have the edge sometimes, but you also make marginal plays that cancel out your "edge" plays, you'll be punished. You have to be able to recognize a mathematical edge or you'll never win in the long run.

My favorite is "I will bet less games because the juice will get you if you bet too many games."

I agree with Iceman that this statement is absurd is what I was saying. To state alone than juice will kill you if you have too many games is ridiculous. Like you said if you have the mathematical edge you bet. 54% betting more games makes you more money. I think we all agree here.
 

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goodcall said:
Dogs and unders hit at say 52%...that means you should be aiming to have about 52% of your plays be dogs and unders...not 70% or 80% or whatever. However, betting all dogs or all unders is more profitable (at least less detrimental) than betting coin-flips.

Also, betting lots of games will only kill you if can't win anyway. Betting 20 games instead of 10 only doubles what you would have done in 10 games, whether that's a good thing or bad.


It's all pretty simple math.

That seems illogical. If dogs and unders in fact hit at 65% would that mean you should be aiming to have about 65% of your plays be dogs and unders?
 

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Here is my take on why betting dogs and unders are better. Now remember this is over hundreds and hundreds of bet samples, I would say to see the real advantage.

Most square books will bump the favorite and the over up a .5 a point to 1 point. Now the consensus number historically(sp) has been 51% in favor of dogs and under and now you add in a .5 to 1 point better than the closing (consensus) number at these square books and with the fact the game hitting on the number (1%-10%) of the time (depending on sport, bet type and number) your win pct increases from 51% (betting dog and under) to a few more pct points.

The thing is you just won't find many "square books" have a number .5/1 better on the side of the favorite when they don't agree with the consensus number at the "sharp" books.

Favorites, Dogs, Over, Unders or whatever, if you have a number a point better than the consensus line in any type bet (more valuable when the number is worth more) you will win in the long run but it is a lot harder to find a better number with the over or the favorite at the books.
 

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The biggest Myth or mistake is thinking one catch phrases cover all the games, proper H'capping calls for a bit more than guesswork. The biggest reason posters on here lose is they think there's an easy trick which means they dont have to work for the cash, like anything else in life, there's a price. :drink:
 

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