arty: 
sorry I am answering this (it was addressed to the sharps) but I follow a rule I heard a year ago and I have made a killing in the past year in NBA.
If you beat the closing line in the NBA by 1 point with a dog at -110 line you will win at a 55% rate and I beleive it wins at at least that. Follow this rule in NBA (which isn't easy) and you will win BIG!!!!
as for your question: I follow a rule that if the ESTABLISHED opener (morning opener) moves 1.5 points than I fade the line move and have done quite well this year. What you are asking is 1 point moves (.5 point at +100), I am looking for 1.5 point moves. So if Houston opens -5 and goes to 6.5 (no new injury announnced), than I grab the +6.5. Alot of times the number will bounce back in this scenairo and you will have the best line all day.
If you beat the closing line in the NBA by 1 point with a dog at -110 line you will win at a 55% rate and I beleive it wins at at least that. Follow this rule in NBA (which isn't easy) and you will win BIG!!!!
as for your question: I follow a rule that if the ESTABLISHED opener (morning opener) moves 1.5 points than I fade the line move and have done quite well this year. What you are asking is 1 point moves (.5 point at +100), I am looking for 1.5 point moves. So if Houston opens -5 and goes to 6.5 (no new injury announnced), than I grab the +6.5. Alot of times the number will bounce back in this scenairo and you will have the best line all day.
MrCleo said:
I try to find the line that has been out awhile, so somewhere around late nite (if teams doesn't play that nite) to early moring because some numbers move if a team played the nite before.
It is a work in progress and there isn't many plays (which is fine) but more or less I think most of us would have the same number as the books, so basically I am faidn most public money on NBA sides and getting a little more value right before game.
OK, i'll open it up a bit more. The vast majority of posts on here to do with line movement and perceived value is done so from a static point in proceedings, what looked a good and smart move an hour ago can look rather silly later. The second point I'm highlighting is how often the Public or Sharps angle come into the conversation, Iceman brought this up straight away in his answer. The question was put purely from a mathmatical stand point which shouldnt have anything to do with why the line moved and who bet it. :drink:
I'll also add that guessing on something the Books didnt know is a big mistake. British Books I know always made it their priority to have their fingers in significant Pies and with something as easy to track as NBA or NFL there's no doubt the big books are on top of the Game. What I'm saying is the perception is that the line is sharp right from the get go and if it doesnt change in a couple of hours, then its solid. :drink:
I have won almost $18k betting around $100-200 a game ($4,500 was on SF moneyline) and concentrated beating the closing line. Not counting baseball I have won EVERY MONTH (Feb-Mar last hoops season and Sept- DEC and up $1,390 in Jan) not counting the baseball months.
I absolutley promise you I beat the closing 80% of the time. You must have dozens of outs(sqaure books), a line service, use key indicators on line movement (Dynamic line at Pinny), follow some steam, make around 30 bets on average nite and most importanly it takes time, time and more time. The lesser bets are every bit as valuable (1st half totals NBA and halftimes).
As for the NBA dogs bet, dogs cover 52% of the time almost every year in NBA, now add an extra point to that number and watch it creep into the mid 50% range.
This is a very simplistic explanation. Poster Sean1 can explain every bit as much as me but I promise you will win. I have taken a buddy with hardly any sports gambling knowledge and in 2 months betting $50 a game or so and he is about 3k.
I barely follow any sports and do NO handicapping(except NFL which I enjoy) and I have won.I actually hate NBA basketball, haven't honestly watched 1 second of it this year.
Throw in the occasional middle and away we go. Last hoops season from Feb- thru mid March I won 56% of my 600+ bets and all I did was concentrate on beating the closing line. This year alot more halftimes and 1st halves as books don't move as fast on these. I am telling you to scalp and middle for a month and you will kill the bad book/ bad number in the long run and see what exactly what I mean but don't forget it is work.
I absolutley promise you I beat the closing 80% of the time. You must have dozens of outs(sqaure books), a line service, use key indicators on line movement (Dynamic line at Pinny), follow some steam, make around 30 bets on average nite and most importanly it takes time, time and more time. The lesser bets are every bit as valuable (1st half totals NBA and halftimes).
As for the NBA dogs bet, dogs cover 52% of the time almost every year in NBA, now add an extra point to that number and watch it creep into the mid 50% range.
This is a very simplistic explanation. Poster Sean1 can explain every bit as much as me but I promise you will win. I have taken a buddy with hardly any sports gambling knowledge and in 2 months betting $50 a game or so and he is about 3k.
I barely follow any sports and do NO handicapping(except NFL which I enjoy) and I have won.I actually hate NBA basketball, haven't honestly watched 1 second of it this year.
Throw in the occasional middle and away we go. Last hoops season from Feb- thru mid March I won 56% of my 600+ bets and all I did was concentrate on beating the closing line. This year alot more halftimes and 1st halves as books don't move as fast on these. I am telling you to scalp and middle for a month and you will kill the bad book/ bad number in the long run and see what exactly what I mean but don't forget it is work.
Ice, On this logic, IND would be a play tonight in the NBA for you since it opened at 7.5 and now is at +9...just making sure I understand the theory
Other quick question, do you use donbest or another line service...Thanks and if anyone else has opinion on this, would greatly appreciate it.
Other quick question, do you use donbest or another line service...Thanks and if anyone else has opinion on this, would greatly appreciate it.
glenrobinson said:
OK. First off the 1.5 pts off opener (no injury) is just a work in progress and it seems to make sense. Basically slow moving steam all day to me is bad bettors moving the number and this creates value. So yes, Indiana is the play but with that said wait on this as 9.5 is now everywhere if you have enough outs you will most likely find a 10 later (I haven't looked yet but I think I will find one) and usually I have noticed this number will hit a plateau and bounce back so don't lose the 9.5.
But my above post is to beat the closing line so an example would be to have Dallas (preferably dogs though) at -8 and that would be a solid bet (IMO).
I honestly don't really care if I win or lose the bet (I do but you know what I mean) I am just aiming to make GREAT plays and enough of these plays which in essence are -120 at Pinny will beat bad books. This is the reason why "square" books will kick you out, beating them to lines moves but my plays are so small ($100 on average) combined with I am not betting steam as much as rock solid value, so i fly under the radar quite a bit.
if you can beat the closing number by a point 80 percent of the time, my hat is off to you. But I find that very hard to believe and if you really are doing that you are betting way too small and should be up way more than 18000 in a years time. It seems you are trying to be a pro and spending the time trying to be one but aren't one.
royalfan said:
I have a 100k a year job(which I won't quit to do this) that I am married to and a 20k bankroll to bet with. What do you want from me? This is my comfort level. 200 units.
I don;t want nor need more stress than this. I have debated for months on betting more. Bottom line I am betting $150,000 a month. How I do it may be different than some but I am hoping and accomplishing a 1-3% ROI, not bad for a hobby.
Iceman said:
Seems to be a pretty time consuming "hobby". Would love to see a sample of a day where you make 30 plays and post them when you play them and see you beating the closing line by a point 80 percent of the time. I simply don't find it believable. How about this. I will give you a period of any three days and give you 3-1 odds that you cannot make 40 NBA plays in that span that beat the closing line by 1 point or more 80 percent of the time. If you typcially play 20-30 bets a day and beat the close by a point 80 percent of the time it should be even easier to find 40 over a three day span. Our wager would start with your first play which is guaranteed to be a winner also for you. Nothing big, just want to see this system in action.
