Are there now too many "contrarian bettors"?

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 5, 2007

This is something Ive noticed and especially since online sports forums sprouted all over the place.

Every other thread its easy to find the words, "public, square, everyone is on, fade, etc". People post these threads about how the public is on such and such team, and within one hour they have 25 replies agreeing with them that yes in fact "everyone" is on that game and they are also fading "everyone".

I guess when they calculate "everyone" they arent including themselves and the rows of others who think they are alone playing these "public fades".

The army of contrarians here and elsewhere believe they are supposedly on the sharp plays eventhough I dont see any of them with a + tally at end of season. As far as Im concerned, the "sharp" side is the side that cashes the ticket and nothing else.

Ive tried blindly fading various consensus items and it doesnt work unless used sparingly. Its a tool and nothing more.

I, myself, as a former member of this "contrarian" club, would like to inform the rest of the army that they are in fact the majority quite often and may want to reconsider "contrarian" betting methods.

:icon_conf

BASEHEAD · Jan 5, 2007

You may be onto something.I try and mix it up but there are times when fading the majority money public is a good idea and the sometimes the best play on the board (ie big reverse line moves-CS North last night (I was part of the public on this one unfortunately-stupid) ,Utah night before).

Im not sure any "system" playing against the "squares" has any real merit anymore.

ElIguana · Jan 5, 2007

Interesting concept, Woof. Many think they are smarter than everyone else or have some angle others haven't thought of.

There are instances when a line is clearly off, public is all over one side, and the books are begging for more "square" $$ (Miami +13.5 @ Chicago Bears this fall comes to mind). When punters catch a situation like this where the books truly are setting up the public, a fade is often a wise move....bet with the books!

But in reality, situations like this are very rare. What I believe happens is we are so eager to find such situations that we "create" them and see something that may not even be there.

ppeter · Jan 5, 2007

Hmmmm. Now that Dawoof has officially thrown in the towel on blindly "fading" I think I will go back to blindly fading the consensus on wagerline. Surely a sign that it will work again if the strongest believer in the system has lost the faith

uppy:

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 5, 2007

Yep, Ill be looking for your popular Mr. Square thread to be rekindled.

Get down there and post some plays.

:suomi:

buffettgambler · Jan 5, 2007

"Too many contrianians" is oxymoronic in nature, as there exists a self fullfillling prophecy. Somewhat of a Yogi Berra line if you ask me, as if there are too many contrarians, it wouldnt be contrarian at all.

5teamparlay · Jan 5, 2007

what Was The Final Record Of Favorites Ats In The Nfl??????

Get Back To Me--- Not Nough Yet.

mike0187 · Jan 5, 2007

No I do not think there are too many "contrarians."

There are just too many recreational gamblers out there for that to happen I think

boatboatboat · Jan 5, 2007

If I see 200 people standing outside of a resturant waiting to eat, the last thing I would do is say "that place sucks", and go to a place with an empty parking lot.

BASEHEAD · Jan 5, 2007

buffettgambler said:
"Too many contrianians" is oxymoronic in nature, as there exists a self fullfillling prophecy. Somewhat of a Yogi Berra line if you ask me, as if there are too many contrarians, it wouldnt be contrarian at all.

Sometimes I think its a case of I know, that you know I know whats going on.

There are lines that beg for the obvious play and folks oblige happily often.Its how the linemakers reacts to the action that make the game betworthy (or not) IMO.

Fading for the sake of fading is foolish.

BASEHEAD · Jan 5, 2007

boatboatboat said:
If I see 200 people standing outside of a resturant waiting to eat, the last thing I would do is say "that place sucks", and go to a place with an empty parking lot.

McDonalds drive thru has a long line sometimes....doesnt mean its good,just means its EASY.

WCBias · Jan 5, 2007

This bowl season was a prime example. I can think of a number of games where the perceived "public" was huge on one side, yet that side covered. LV took a bath on some of those games.

trytrytry · Jan 5, 2007

boatboatboat said:
If I see 200 people standing outside of a resturant waiting to eat, the last thing I would do is say "that place sucks", and go to a place with an empty parking lot.

Yogi said it best

"Nobody goes there anymore its too busy"

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 5, 2007

5teamparlay said:
what Was The Final Record Of Favorites Ats In The Nfl??????

Doesnt tell us much since sometimes more or equal betting action is on the underdog.

Blindly betting too many underdogs has been one of my biggest betting mistakes since I began gambling online.

This weeks nfl playoff games is an example of plenty of bettors backing dogs and probably falsely thinking they are alone or with the sharp action.

trytrytry · Jan 5, 2007

ive been thinking much about this topic quite a bit this fall as it turns out. Dont have any answers but lots of thinking.

Really hope we get people to give thoughts on this.

I feel the only winners long term are Value players a guy/gal who can more often than not see value as small as 1/2 point and play those sides at reduced juice (and play only those types of plays). Some of those are wagerline public plays and some are not. If you play value sure on some games you get caught in "the trap" (ie the line was a set up with value and you got ambushed). If you can compliment your value playing with avoiding a few ambushes here and there your overall ROI can improve.

TheFalls · Jan 5, 2007

I think that there probably is too many at this point. There are more people playing these games than ever.
And when you lose over 50% of your plays you have to reevaluate what you are doing.
Flip the script and things started falling in your favor.

I used to cap games like a mother all through college-always winning-every year.
Had one BAD year a few years ago, and I had to adjust what I was doing. I became very contrarian and it worked.
I have now found a balance between being diametrical and studying trends and stats. Not easy.

Antonioli · Jan 5, 2007

interesting thread.

I love the way you guys use games that happened as an example of unsuccessful fade plays, look ahead, it's too convenient to look back and judge. I cap the games, i predict the lines, then i look at the concensus, one thing for sure is that i do get uncomfortable to find out 70% of the "players" agree with me. Tonight i do believe more money will be on Washington, but they would still cover. I think most realised that concensus is just a 50/50 thing, and you might get 60% going against fishy lines. The key word is sparingly.

boatboatboat · Jan 5, 2007

BASEHEAD said:
McDonalds drive thru has a long line sometimes....doesnt mean its good,just means its EASY.

ummmmmmm

yes it means in the world of "fast food", Mc D's is good.

BASEHEAD · Jan 5, 2007

boatboatboat said:
ummmmmmm

yes it means in the world of "fast food", Mc D's is good.

McD's is about the worst of the "fast food" chains.

ucking:

Hold the special sauce.

boatboatboat · Jan 5, 2007

oh now.......

In the world of fast food, the fries are to die for, the shakes are yummy, and those McMufins rock.

BTW, what are your thoughts on Jerry Springer? I have suspected for quite a while now, the guest are really paid actors.