Determining "public plays"

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What percentage of players need to be on one side of a game (ATS) to be considered a public play? 60-40? 65-35? 70-30?

Also, looking at tonight's NBA games on Sports Insights,

70% on Minnesota ATS, opened at -7.5 now at -6.5
67% on Dallas ATS, opened at +5, now at +5.5
62% on Utah ATS, opened at +2, now at +3

So, in turn do

Philly +6.5
San Antonio +5.5
Houston -3

become so-called "sharp plays" if you believe in books taking a stand?
 

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JB, I really only use the public angle for NFL and March Madness. Those are the biggest earners for the books.
 

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I agree that NFL is probably the best to use this angle, but am I understanding this correctly in terms of these games being plays IF you use this angle? Also, what percentage do you need to make something like this a play?
 

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i just started monitoring that sight over the last couple of days. their updates arent consistent though so its inexact.

ive been breakin them down by over 70%, 80% and 90% this is for ncaa, nba and some nhl.


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Obviously a small sample size, but very nice results so far.

Also, are you on Philly tonight then?
 

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not playing them . just following along and see if there is anything to these numbers
 

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not sure how legit the numbers the books give out. seems self defeating to me. thats why im just lookin right now.
 
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Seems like everyone and their mother is on Dallas and Utah tonight..

Interesting to see how that works out.
 

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Tesco - you're not tracking just fading public plays but only public plays when the line moves the other way right? Also, does the record for the 70%+ include the record for 80% and 90% in it & likewise does the record for 80%+ include the 90%+ within it?

Thanks, possibly looking to track this myself.
 

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Go to Walmart and ask 10 guys in the sports section who they are on.
 

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Judge Wapner said:
JB, I really only use the public angle for NFL and March Madness. Those are the biggest earners for the books.

You can add certain NCAAF games to this, too.
 

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parlayin said:
You keep saying certain. Which ones?

Higher profile, nationally televised, stuff like that. Games likely to draw more bets in general, basically.
 

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