Who is a good example of why you need more than 1 book! Possible middle here as well!

I usually like to bet first quarters of football under the posted total. Before I show the lines, they are usually around 7.5 for teams that throw the ball a little and 7 for teams that run the ball. A high scoring team might have a first quarter total of 10 or so.

Now initially I was looking at my betcris account and I clicked on 1st quarter bet and saw under 7.5 at even. I thought that wasnt a real bad line and almost bet it. But i said, let me check at 2 other books just in case. Here are all of the first quarter lines for all wild card games at betcris at this time.

34773478
1Q KANSAS CITY
1Q INDIANAPOLIS


<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520938_12070_2_-10.5_130_NFL name=game>o10½+130

<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520938_12070_3_10.5_-150_NFL name=game>u10½-150


5:00 PM1 /06 /07
34793480
1Q DALLAS
1Q SEATTLE

<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520942_12070_0_0_100_NFL name=game>PKEV
<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520942_12070_1_0_-120_NFL name=game>PK-120

<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520942_12070_2_-7.5_-120_NFL name=game>o7½-120
<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520942_12070_3_7.5_100_NFL name=game>u7½EV

NFL QUARTERS First Quarter Lines - Jan 07
10:00 AM1 /07 /07
34833484
1Q NY JETS
1Q NEW ENGLAND

<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520946_12070_0_0.5_-105_NFL name=game>+½-105
<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520946_12070_1_-0.5_-115_NFL name=game>-½-115

<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520946_12070_2_-7_-110_NFL name=game>o7-110
<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520946_12070_3_7_-110_NFL name=game>u7-110




1:30 PM1 /07 /07
34853486
1Q NY GIANTS
1Q PHILADELPHIA

<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520950_12070_0_0.5_-120_NFL name=game>+½-120
<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520950_12070_1_-0.5_100_NFL name=game>-½EV

<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520950_12070_2_-7.5_-120_NFL name=game>o7½-120
<INPUT class=chkbox type=checkbox value=520950_12070_3_7.5_100_NFL name=game>u7½EV



Now lets compare with betjamaica.


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=780 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#f8f5bd><TD noWrap>477</TD><TD noWrap>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S1_0> +½ -112 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=L1_0> Over 10 -115 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f8f5bd><TD noWrap>478</TD><TD noWrap>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S2_0> -½ -108 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=L2_0> Under 10 -105 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f8f5bd><TD noWrap colSpan=5><CITE>* Game Note: (NBC) (Wild Card Game) Team Totals are available under proposition</CITE></TD></TR></TR><TR bgColor=#cdeab8><TD noWrap colSpan=5>1/6/2007 07:00PM </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cdeab8><TD noWrap>479</TD><TD noWrap>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S1_1> +½ -155 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=L1_1> Over 9½ -120 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cdeab8><TD noWrap>480</TD><TD noWrap>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S2_1> -½ +135 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=L2_1> Under 9½ +100 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cdeab8><TD noWrap colSpan=5><CITE>* Game Note: (NBC) (Wildcard Game) Team Totals are available under proposition</CITE></TD></TR></TR><TR><TH vAlign=top align=left bgColor=#17654b colSpan=5>Sunday</TH></TR><TR bgColor=#f8f5bd><TD noWrap colSpan=5>1/7/2007 12:00PM </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f8f5bd><TD noWrap>483</TD><TD noWrap>New York Jets</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S1_2> +3 -125 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=L1_2> Over 7 -105 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f8f5bd><TD noWrap>484</TD><TD noWrap>New England Patriots</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S2_2> -3 +105 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=L2_2> Under 7 -115 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f8f5bd><TD noWrap colSpan=5><CITE>* Game Note: (CBS) (Wild Card Game) Team Totals are available under proposition</CITE></TD></TR></TR><TR bgColor=#cdeab8><TD noWrap colSpan=5>1/7/2007 03:30PM </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cdeab8><TD noWrap>485</TD><TD noWrap>New York Giants</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S1_3> +½ +100 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=L1_3> Over 9½ -120 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cdeab8><TD noWrap>486</TD><TD noWrap>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=S2_3> -½ -120 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT class=inputstyle id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=L2_3> Under 9½ +100 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>








Now here is skybook.com

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD class=TitleSportsbox align=left colSpan=3>NFL Football 1st Quarter</TD><TD class=TitleSportsbox align=left>Spread</TH> <TD class=TitleSportsbox align=left>Money Line</TD><TD class=TitleSportsbox align=left>Total Points</TD><TD class=TitleSportsbox align=left colSpan=2>Team Total Points</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=Table2inside><TD noWrap>Sat 1/6</TD><TD noWrap>477</TD><TD noWrap>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_8 name=radiox>+½ -115 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_8 name=radiox>Over 10 -115 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR class=Table2inside><TD noWrap>1:30PM (PST) </TD><TD noWrap>478</TD><TD noWrap>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_8 name=radiox>-½ -115 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_8 name=radiox>Under 10 -115 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Sorry but skybook only has the first game up at this time.


As you can see, betjamaica has line at under 9.5 and +++100!!! Betcris has is at under 7.5 and even! Now I might consider going for a middle here is 8 was more of a key number. Instead, I am taking the under of course!! This is like stealing in my opinion! The game MIGHT go over, but not the first quarter. I look for a 3 point MAXIMUM first quarter score.


I guess you guys that middle might like to try this middle. But you probably need either a safety or a missed extra point to get the 9 point total.

You have both unders at +money, not under and over.

Yes but, betcris has it at under 7.5 at even and betjamaica has it at under 9.5 and +100. I am not talking about middling at all since that is something that I never do, I am just talking about where to shop for the under

Sounded to me like you were talking about middling it.

I guess you guys that middle might like to try this middle. But you probably need either a safety or a missed extra point to get the 9 point total.<!-- / message -->

I was mentioning that it is a possible middle, but I never try to middle nor do I EVER HEDGE A BET!!

It's not a good middle, no way the total lands on 8 or 9 enough to be profitable. Of course under 9.5 is better than under 7.5 with the same juice, but this middle will eat the juice way more than 4.76 % of the time.

Yeah 8 and 9 is not exactly live numbers, you need a missed extra point, safety or perhaps 3 FG's. BTW Players did I read that right and you say a maximum of 3 points in the Indy/KC game? Why do you think the 1st quarter will be so low scoring? I don't necessarily disagree as I am considering a game under play myself, just curious where you are coming from.

Doug said:

It's not a good middle, no way the total lands on 8 or 9 enough to be profitable. Of course under 9.5 is better than under 7.5 with the same juice, but this middle will eat the juice way more than 4.76 % of the time.

Click to expand...

Doug is right, not a good middle. Don't be fooled by 7.5 thru 9.5 with football middles. Books will be very loose with those numbers as they almost never hit. Same with 1st halfs (and ht's) totals of 17.5 thru 19.5, dead numbers.

Pat, I felt that KC would be forced to run the ball.

In the second game, likewise, Seattle will try and run theball on 3 straight downs to start the game most likely. If successful, then they will keep doing it at least through the first quarter. Dallas doesnt exactly have a strong offense as well. Should be an easy under at least through one quarter

there's virtually no difference between a 7.5 and 9.5 1q line.

Easy winner here!

ivyconniver said:

there's virtually no difference between a 7.5 and 9.5 1q line.

Click to expand...

well, lets not exagerate here....

there is always the possibility of a 3 field goal first quarter.

ivyconniver said:

there's virtually no difference between a 7.5 and 9.5 1q line.

Click to expand...

Sounds like 2 free points to me!!




Your statement is exactly what I say when people tell me they are trying to middle a game. I always see it as a waste of time unless you are betting $20000 on each side

The EXACT same numbers are available tomorrow

Points have different values, I'll take a two point middle in hoops sides ( NBA, NCAA, WNBA, Euro, Ferengi, whatever) no problem, it's a winner.

This Q1 middle is a loser, due to how football is scored. You need to have a very good idea what each point is worth before you attempt a middle.

In reality you usually have to lead and forecast line movement to middle, you won't find much in real time, anymore. If you do, it's for like $220 with SIA.

Anybody have the numbers on how often Q1 hits a total of 8 or 9 ? I'd guess maybe 2% ? 3 FG's are pretty unlikely. A FG is the result of a drive that fails to produce a TD, drives consume time, timeouts are saved for later, there just isn't enough time for 3 FG's in Q1.