I lost my Seattle over Dallas wager because I elected to take them -1.5 +105 instead of -1 -112 at a different book. I was cursing myself after the loss, but when I started thinking about it I'm not sure I made a mistake. The wager was only for $50, but If it were for 1000 the juice difference would be considerable. What would you have done before the game with these options?
You did the right thing. If you want to succeed in this you should not be cursing yourself for taking the loosing side but congratulate yourself for making the RIGHT decision. It does not matter HOW you did, what matters is WHAT you did. On the long run doing the right things is +ev and that is all this about.
What difference does the amount make ? I'd pick the line not based on the size of the bet. I had some Dallas +3.5 -140 ( overbet believing it would drop to 2.5 or less, and trying to middle the 3). I took back some Seattle ML, some at Sea -1, based mainly on where I had free funds, my preferred takeback line was meant to be Sea -2.5, but things don't always go as planned, worked here.
Doug said:
Agree. The size doesn't matter. MONEY is MONEY. Even $20 covers a Neteller withdrawal.
The trick is to expose yourself as little as possible.
I had KC ML parlayed with the over too. I lost it BAD, but it was worth the 6-1 payout.
Tomorrow I have New England -14.5 and the NYG on the ML. I might lose both wagers, but if I hit one of them, I will be ok for the next two weeks.
You did the right thing, but you lost. It's ok. Losing a wager is NOT a bad thing - not doing the right thing is what you should be wary of.
Doug said:
Again, it's MY practice to buy the .5 point when I bet larger amounts. If I'm wagering 5k, then I buy the .5 most every time. If I'm just dinking around and wagering $50, then I leave it. It's not worth it to me. Not necessary for monitary reasons, but more to see how well I capped the event.
If I cap a bball game at -10, and pinny is showing -5.5.... on a piss-away bet, I'll leave the .5. On the same bet, if I'm dropping $5k, then you're damn-right... I'm buying that .5
The Pig said:
Paying 17 cents for that half point would have been the wrong play.
For such a move to break even, that half point would have to come into play once every 6 games.
If you lose a 6 wagers when you pay an extra 17 cents, you have lost a wager without losing a wager.
If you keep paying 17 cents for that half point, in the long run you will lose money over the guy who doesn't. You might win/push a wager, but it still won't be worth the extra investment.
