Is this a sound long term polish arb?

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Morning everyone, I found this unique situation early this morning and would like the opinions of the middling/scalping experts here.

Game: NBA Washington vs. Toronto
Arb Situation:
O221 +100 (Wagered $500)
U220.5 +112 (Wagered 471.70)
Potential Results:
On 221 --> -$471.70
Not on 221 --> $28.30 for a 6% return of $471.70

I read at another forum that the total push point frequency for 201 is 1.79%. So base on that, I'm thinking this is an advantageous play. Would love to hear opinions from you guys.

Value
 

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Valuebets said:
Morning everyone, I found this unique situation early this morning and would like the opinions of the middling/scalping experts here.

Game: NBA Washington vs. Toronto
Arb Situation:
O221 +100 (Wagered $500)
U220.5 +112 (Wagered 471.70)
Potential Results:
On 221 --> -$471.70
Not on 221 --> $28.30 for a 6% return of $471.70

I read at another forum that the total push point frequency for 201 is 1.79%. So base on that, I'm thinking this is an advantageous play. Would love to hear opinions from you guys.

Value

Yeah that works. Not gonna make you rich, but it's fine.
 

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6% with a few key strokes.

BRILLYANT!

people buy cd's that take a full year to yield a 6% rate of return.

You earned 6% in one afternoon......

Imagine if you did that with 10k per transaction, and you found 20 bets a year to do that with.

hmmmmmm
 

MrJ

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boatboatboat said:
6% with a few key strokes.

BRILLYANT!

people buy cd's that take a full year to yield a 6% rate of return.

You earned 6% in one afternoon......

Imagine if you did that with 10k per transaction, and you found 20 bets a year to do that with.

hmmmmmm

The flaw in your suggestion is that he is earning 6% on the wagered amount only, not on his total bankroll.
 

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Which line is from Pinny ?

The U220.5 was from Pinny.

6% with a few key strokes.

BRILLYANT!

people buy cd's that take a full year to yield a 6% rate of return.

You earned 6% in one afternoon......

Imagine if you did that with 10k per transaction, and you found 20 bets a year to do that with.

hmmmmmm

Usually I would be very pleased if this was a scalp play but because there is a chance that I can actually lose if the game lands on 201, I'm sort of doubting myself if this is a good play or not.
 

gerhart got hosed
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I would never, ever make that bet considering you can lose. You can find arbs all day long if you look. Yesterday there was a 5% arb in the Dallas game 1st Q between youwager and pinny. Now 5% arbs aren't common but they are out there. But the fact that you could lose makes this arb, if you want to call it that... a terrible one
 

Rx God
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I think it's profitable over many bets, but if you get a bad streak where the number lands with unusual frequency, then you're in bad beat city.
 

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I don't know anything about this but I would say its a nice play and I the fact that the total is so high makes me think its a good play.

If the total was lower I would think it becomes a worse play.

It just seems to me the lower the total the more the predictable single numbers would be.

Am I close??
 

gerhart got hosed
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I am just saying why bother when you can find other arbs out there. This may be a 6% arb when it hits, but lifetime, even if it is +EV, it can't be by much. Find something without risk.
 

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I would never, ever make that bet considering you can lose. You can find arbs all day long if you look. Yesterday there was a 5% arb in the Dallas game 1st Q between youwager and pinny. Now 5% arbs aren't common but they are out there. But the fact that you could lose makes this arb, if you want to call it that... a terrible one

I agree with you on that. Just lately I'm getting bored at finding the usual free risk arbs. But this morning, I happened to stumble upon this play and was curious about its long term expected gain. I notice base on stats, it is a good long term play and it adds a small element of risk into the bet which was something I was looking for.
 

Rx God
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I wouldn't go looking for it, but might bet it if I found it. Great for rollover, but probably at places where you don't need it like the M's and P.
 

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I don't know anything about this but I would say its a nice play and I the fact that the total is so high makes me think its a good play.

If the total was lower I would think it becomes a worse play.

It just seems to me the lower the total the more the predictable single numbers would be.

Am I close??


Yeah I would definitely not touch this small risk arb if the point value was 171. But just the fact that the total was so high and the frequency that it would hit at 201, (1.79%), is 3x less than the amount of the arb win 6%had me thinking it's a good sound play.
 

Lieutenant Commander
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I think that 1.79% number is incorrect. My estimation is 2.5% making this marginally profitable as you "should" win just $24.30 instead of $28.30.

Putting statistics aside, by some freak of nature, 221 actually happens much more frequently than it should around these totals. I personally prefer not to argue with this type of things as there is always a possibility that there is something behind this that I do not know about. There are just too many other opportunities to put my money on.
 

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You're right I did look at the wrong values. According to my stats as of 1/1/07, 221 is hitting at 2.05% so just a little less than 3x.
 

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Mr J said:
The flaw in your suggestion is that he is earning 6% on the wagered amount only, not on his total bankroll.

where did I suggest he made 6% on his whole bankroll?
 

MrJ

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where did I suggest he made 6% on his whole bankroll?

This is easy to assume as you compared making 6% 'in one afternoon!!!' to making 6% over a year. The way you said it gives the impression that you are comparing them directly (ie full bankroll in play). If you don't then it's apples to oranges since 6% of an unknown amount can't be compared to 6% of the whole bankroll.
 

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