Math guys, whats my chances of winning the HUMMER?

CHOPTALK · Jan 14, 2007

1) Will there be a score in the first 6 minutes and 35.5 seconds of the game? NO
2) Will either team commit a turnover in the 4th quarter? YES
3) Who will cover the spread? SD minus 4.5 points? NE
4) Will game go over or under 46.5 points? under
5) Will either team score in the final 35.5 seconds of the first half? NO
6) Which team will cover the 4th quarter? SD minus .5 (half a point) NE

I know some of these plays or semi coralated, so my odds should be a little bit better than a pure 6 team parley.

roach23 · Jan 14, 2007

no chance.

bdgear · Jan 14, 2007

CHOPTALK said:
1) Will there be a score in the first 6 minutes and 35.5 seconds of the game? NO
2) Will either team commit a turnover in the 4th quarter? YES
3) Who will cover the spread? SD minus 4.5 points? NE
4) Will game go over or under 46.5 points? under
5) Will either team score in the final 35.5 seconds of the first half? NO
6) Which team will cover the 4th quarter? SD minus .5 (half a point) NE

I know some of these plays or semi coralated, so my odds should be a little bit better than a pure 6 team parley.

dont know the odds but i missed it last week by 1 prop i put no for will phill-giants score first 6 minute hit the other 11

GL :toast:

CHOPTALK · Jan 14, 2007

How do I hedge this shit?

bdgear · Jan 14, 2007

CHOPTALK said:
How do I hedge this shit?

are you serious? LOL!

Doug · Jan 14, 2007

Better than 1 in 64 with the correlation.

CHOPTALK · Jan 14, 2007

bdgear said:
dont know the odds but i missed it last week by 1 prop i put no for will phill-giants score first 6 minute hit the other 11

GL :toast:

Damm what a bummer. I hate to say it, but I will probably miss by one or two. Trying not to get my hopes to high.

I am an emotional wreak right now.

The Saints game was unbearable until the very end. I was going insane, then the Saints pulled it out, I come to the forum to find out that I am in the running for a Hummer that I totally forgot that I even entered.

Now I have 24 hours to unwind from the Saints game, and get ready for this PATS game.

Im going insane folks!!!

CHOPTALK · Jan 14, 2007

Tonight was going to be a sleepless night no matter what because of the Saints game, now you add this to the mix.

So now im getting over this emotional Saints win, then I have to pull hard for Seattle tommorow, then I have this PATS/CHARGER game tommorow night.

I CANT TAKE ALL THIS:lolBIG:

Doug · Jan 14, 2007

Maybe 5% or so chance, I can't see it being higher than that, realistically.

GL

CHOPTALK · Jan 14, 2007

If SKYBOOK wants to buy me out of this bet for cheap, im all ears.

If not, thanks again SKYBOOK.

themanej2001 · Jan 14, 2007

Chop you can hedge it honestly... if you don't plan on keeping the car and you plan on selling it if you win the first half props you can bet like SD in the second half and stuff... dont know how u hedge the turnover but you know what i am saying...

GL TO YOU!!!

D2bets · Jan 14, 2007

1.58315%

Doug · Jan 14, 2007

You could hedge the last prop in the 4th Q, if the games way under, and SD leads Q4, and there's an early TO in the Q, that's about it.

CHOPTALK · Jan 14, 2007

Doug said:
You could hedge the last prop in the 4th Q, if the games way under, and SD leads Q4, and there's an early TO in the Q, that's about it.

If it gets that far, I think I would take my chances.

If I have a 50% shot at winning at any point, im letting it ride.

I have been studying all 6 of these bets, and there is simply no way to hedge a bet like this, besides that last play you are talking about.

I mean, how can you hedge, will a team score in the last 30 seconds?

Doug · Jan 14, 2007

Last 30 sec of H1, that will be out of the way at halftime.

Doug · Jan 14, 2007

Doug said:
You could hedge the last prop in the 4th Q, if the games way under, and SD leads Q4, and there's an early TO in the Q, that's about it.

oops, you need NE in Q4, not SD.

trytrytry · Jan 14, 2007

dont sweat it man. chop this is all you today. chop chop chop....

Journeyman · Jan 14, 2007

Doug said:
Better than 1 in 64 with the correlation.

much better than 1 in 64....I'd say roughly a 1 in 45

Mr.Smith · Jan 14, 2007

you cant hedge. good luck though. people are rooting for you. get some beer and ride it out.
new england and under I think is a good bet

JudgeWapner · Jan 14, 2007

Take the day and go somewhere. When you get home tonight, check in and see how you did.

Math guys, whats my chances of winning the HUMMER?

Member

Rx. Junior

New member

Member

New member

Rx God

Member

Member

Rx God

Member

Home Sweet Home

New member

Rx God

Member

Rx God

Rx God

Member

Banned

RX Senior

Member

Forum statistics

Share this page