Probably correct, the guys who profit from bases are not to be found here, and if they were found here before, they ran fast when people started asking for tips on systems like "tailing streaks" and so on.
I would expect the system for capping bases is very similar to other teamsports, except it's a bit more complicated as you have different lineups from day to day, not only giving you the the problems to solve as homefavour but also adding a ranking that has to be adjusted every single day.
Talking about starting pitchers and bullpen ofcourse. If you wanna bet the lite version, try taking away as much of the extra work as possible, maybe like betting 5 innings only, which means the bullpen will have such a small affect on the estimation that you can really ignore it. Or atleast make a very small average adjustment.
Then make rankings of the offence, rank the different pitchers, look on the stats of homefavour, what have the numbers really been. Take away every single "feeling" from the game. Let the numbers speak.
And finally, learn to ignore. Two things;
1. What people say, what people post, streaks, history, whatever.
2. Stats ging the opposite way of your ranking. This is the key. If you believe Maddux is gonna have a whip of 1,15 this year you can't stop believing that after three games when he is up at around 1,60. Guys will have bad days, guys will have long negative streaks. In the end, if you made a good ranking, it will turn and you will cash in.
I would expect the system for capping bases is very similar to other teamsports, except it's a bit more complicated as you have different lineups from day to day, not only giving you the the problems to solve as homefavour but also adding a ranking that has to be adjusted every single day.
Talking about starting pitchers and bullpen ofcourse. If you wanna bet the lite version, try taking away as much of the extra work as possible, maybe like betting 5 innings only, which means the bullpen will have such a small affect on the estimation that you can really ignore it. Or atleast make a very small average adjustment.
Then make rankings of the offence, rank the different pitchers, look on the stats of homefavour, what have the numbers really been. Take away every single "feeling" from the game. Let the numbers speak.
And finally, learn to ignore. Two things;
1. What people say, what people post, streaks, history, whatever.
2. Stats ging the opposite way of your ranking. This is the key. If you believe Maddux is gonna have a whip of 1,15 this year you can't stop believing that after three games when he is up at around 1,60. Guys will have bad days, guys will have long negative streaks. In the end, if you made a good ranking, it will turn and you will cash in.
