TheCruncher's Super Bowl Play

thecruncher · Jan 21, 2007

Went 2-1 today, making a little money. Hit both sides, but got smoked on the 2nd half Under, lol. Oh well, I actually had the Over in the game for the same amount, but it wasn't a posted play.

Adding for 1/2 Unit:

Bears +7.5 (-119)
+ Bears ML for 1/4 Unit (+234)

My early line is Bears +2, with an O/U of 48.5

dray · Jan 21, 2007

Love it, thanks for the info.

SubwaySam · Jan 22, 2007

thecruncher said:
Went 2-1 today, making a little money. Hit both sides, but got smoked on the 2nd half Under, lol. Oh well, I actually had the Over in the game for the same amount, but it wasn't a posted play.

Adding for 1/2 Unit:

Bears +7.5 (-119)
+ Bears ML for 1/4 Unit (+234)

My early line is Bears +2, with an O/U of 48.5

Two very strong plays right there.

Bluemyboy · Jan 22, 2007

good stuff..... glad to see you took it already too! good luck to us in the Superbowl. Season is almost wrapped up....almost time to start counting the days down until preseason. Goodluck Crunch!

thecruncher · Feb 4, 2007

Alright here's my final line:

Bears +1.5, O/U 48.5.

So, I still like my Bears' plays.

For all the people just dropping by for today, or as a reminder to the regulars, here is year to date.

***YTD***
+17.8 Units (average bet size for season has been 0.6 Units, so +29.7 average bets.)
+7.57% Return on Investment

Sides: -1.0 Units
Totals: +9.5 Units
Teasers: +3.0 Units
Halves: +4.8 Units
Quarters: -0.5 Units
Team Totals, Parlays: +2.0 Units

Enjoy the game, please drink irresponsibly and we'll see you next year, when I hope to unveil the most revolutionary "do it yourself" handicapping website/software the industry has ever seen. I can't talk about it any further, but just had dinner last night with my genius programmer pal, who anticipates that the technology he is developing will push his company to a 50 billion dollar one in 3-5 years time. I'll be one of 5-6 individuals crafting his beta system to a specific industry, whereupon if we can show the success of our systems within his model, he'll be going after some big venture capital. He hopes to have his software ready this summer, and I hope to have a website up sometime before or during the early part of next season, but we know how these things go, so I'm just keeping my fingers crossed.

ButI'mTedBell · Feb 4, 2007

Enjoyed your threads all season Cruncher. GL today, and especially with your project.

dottom · Feb 4, 2007

Bears is the bet here - Colts are .500 away from home

Bears +7
Bears +10.5 -185
Bears ML

I won't get into details of individual match-ups or style vs. style etc. as it's been done ad naseum. Let's stick to some bigger picture analysis here.

Not only is Indy not playing in dome/turf but slightly wet with 40-60% chance of rain. That fast yet small Colts defensive line on wet grass away from dome/turf will allow Bears to move the ball. Let's not forget that Colts were 4-4 away from home. Many are comparing Bears vs. Baltimore to show how Colts can beat Bears like they did Baltimore (who had a better defense). The problem with that is Baltimore's offense is one-dimensional, and Bears have a still-underestimated offense. If there is such a thing as being "underestimated" and making the playoffs... many think Bears can only win if their defense keeps Colts in check, and the common reasoning is "no one can keep Colts offense in check". But Colts offense will not be as effective away from dome/turf and with slightly wet to raining grass field. Plus the Bears will be able to score so their defense doesn't have to completely shut down the Colts. Bears actually average 29.16 points L6 games vs. Colts 26.83. My point here is that Bears can score too. The defense doesn't have to shut down Manning & company... just keep them somewhat in check.

7-points is a gift. If you need to get more down but are up against your books limits, or can't post up enough at a single book due to recent legislation issues, take the alternate line +10.5 and/or the ML.

CaptainCarl · Feb 4, 2007

Good luck Cruncher! Ended up teasing Indy -0.5 and un 53.5. More $'s on player props than on the game.

TIGERTOY · Feb 4, 2007

Good to see you on the Bears. Good luck buddy.

Tiger

SubwaySam · Feb 4, 2007

Cruncher, congrats on another great season, and best wishes with the business venture. A business like that would be a dream come true for many of us on here, and it takes a lot of guts to put it on the line and dive into something like that. Looking forward to the product - make sure you find a way to let us all know how/where to find you.

thecruncher · Feb 4, 2007

Thanks, Ted, Dot, Cap, Tiger and Sam. BOL to one and all.

thecruncher · Feb 4, 2007

Well, I've never been afraid to bail on a team at halftime, so here we go again!

Adding for 1/2 Unit:

Colts -5 (-105) 2nd half

Will still profit if the Bears win the game, otherwise, lose a little on the ML play, but I just don't see it happening. The Colts dominated the first half with the exception of 2 big plays for the Bears. Colts seriously outgaining the Bears, and the Bears' defense only figures to get even more worn down unless the Bears offense can sustain a drive.

TheCruncher's Super Bowl Play

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thecruncher

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dray

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SubwaySam

"Success is a lousy teacher."

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SubwaySam

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