It might be a good time to see some stats regarding key numbers in the NFL. We all know that 3 is the biggest key number but 7,6, and 4 are also key numbers that often come into play. Since -6,-6 1/2 and -7 are all numbers that can be readily attained right now..... perhaps an updating of likelyhood of them coming into play might be timely. Does someone here have the exact numbers ?
The last 2 could just as easily stretch to the last 3 ! I was just asking if someone has the correct stats on these key numbers/ Perhaps fishhead has some stats ? I remember when baseball's allstar game alternated swings of 10 games or more in a row back and forth. 40 games is not much of a base to offer meaningful prediction on what might happen this year. This is JMHOJourneyman said:
here's what G+J has on their site, if you want to trust them:
NFL Margins of Victory:
3 pts 14.3%
7 pts 7.2%
4 pts 6.8%
6 pts 6.3%
1 pt 5.5%
14 pts 5.3%
10 pts 5.2%
2 pts 3.7%
11 pts 3.6%
17 pts 3.6%
20 pts 3.5%
5 pts 3.0%
13 pts 2.9%
21 pts 2.3%
24 pts 2.3%
16 pts 2.2%
8 pts 1.9%
9 pts 1.8%
12 pts 1.6%
Others 8.6%
NFL Margins of Victory:
3 pts 14.3%
7 pts 7.2%
4 pts 6.8%
6 pts 6.3%
1 pt 5.5%
14 pts 5.3%
10 pts 5.2%
2 pts 3.7%
11 pts 3.6%
17 pts 3.6%
20 pts 3.5%
5 pts 3.0%
13 pts 2.9%
21 pts 2.3%
24 pts 2.3%
16 pts 2.2%
8 pts 1.9%
9 pts 1.8%
12 pts 1.6%
Others 8.6%
The G&J numbers are for absolute margin of victory. What's relevant here is favorite MOV.
Estimated NFL ATS and Over/Under Push Frequencies
Estimated NFL ATS and Over/Under Push Frequencies
