-FH- wagering consideration for COLTS backers

Fishhead · Feb 3, 2007

If one likes the COLTS -7 -110...........think you have better value wagering PEYTON MANNING as being SUPERBOWL MVP @ EVEN MONEY or better..............-FH-

ppeter · Feb 4, 2007

Darn good point, Fish.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2007

ppeter said:
Darn good point, Fish.

Thank you

For one thing, I dont see ANY of the Colts big three recievers of Harrison, Clark, or Wayne having any chance of winning the award over Manning.......as if they have a big game, so will Manning.

I can see possibly J.A. winning the award at the RB position or a defensive player(Freeney or Sanders?) and thats it..........and no, Veneteri is not winning the award.

BUT HERE IS THE HUGE KICKER..........the COLTS could win by 1-7 pts, thus not covering, and MANNING could win the AWARD!!

No question in my mind this is a sharper play for COLTS backers rather than laying 6.5-7.0 pts with them.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2007

Fishhead said:
Thank you

For one thing, I dont see ANY of the Colts big three recievers of Harrison, Clark, or Wayne having any chance of winning the award over Manning.......as if they have a big game, so will Manning.

I can see possibly J.A. winning the award at the RB position or a defensive player(Freeney or Sanders?) and thats it..........and no, Veneteri is not winning the award.

BUT HERE IS THE HUGE KICKER..........the COLTS could win by 1-7 pts, thus not covering, and MANNING could win the AWARD!!

No question in my mind this is a sharper play for COLTS backers rather than laying 6.5-7.0 pts with them.

Which raises the question.........

WHO HAS THE BEST ODDS ON PEYTON TO WIN THE MVP OF THE SUPERBOWL??????

Woody0 · Feb 4, 2007

Fishhead said:
If one likes the COLTS -7 -110...........think you have better value wagering PEYTON MANNING as being SUPERBOWL MVP @ EVEN MONEY or better..............-FH-

If you like the Colts -7 -110, then take the Colts -6.5 -103 (MB).

Regarding value, if the Colts win by 1-7 then Vinatieri might be a last minute hero and if he's responsible for much of the scoring in a low scoring tight game it might be worth a little on him at high odds.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2007

Woody0 said:
If you like the Colts -7 -110, then take the Colts -6.5 -103 (MB).

Regarding value, if the Colts win by 1-7 then Vinatieri might be a last minute hero and if he's responsible for much of the scoring in a low scoring tight game it might be worth a little on him at high odds.

If I liked the COLTS, even at -6.5 -103, would still rather have PEYTON for MVP at plus money to win the MVP rather than laying -6.5 in this spot.

Again, very debatable and highly speculative debate................but have stated my feelings.

Woody0 · Feb 4, 2007

Fishhead said:
Which raises the question.........

WHO HAS THE BEST ODDS ON PEYTON TO WIN THE MVP OF THE SUPERBOWL??????

+110, Pinny, VIP, WSEX; +117, Tradesports.

Edit: My point about -6.5 was simply a better line and a separate issue from taking Manning as MVP instead. Good questions you raised FISH, wonder if any one else will jump in.

X-Files · Feb 4, 2007

Fishhead said:
Which raises the question.........

WHO HAS THE BEST ODDS ON PEYTON TO WIN THE MVP OF THE SUPERBOWL??????

Probably better can be found, but...

Pinnacle now has +110 {-125 he won't}...saw it as high as +130 there

Olympic down to +100...was at least +120 at one point

Bet365 had -150 days ago, now OTB, as far as i can tell

X-Files · Feb 4, 2007

Fishhead said:
If I liked the COLTS, even at -6.5 -103, would still rather have PEYTON for MVP at plus money to win the MVP rather than laying -6.5 in this spot.

Again, very debatable and highly speculative debate................but have stated my feelings.

If the Colts win, which they probably will, i think a very high
percentage of the time Manning would be MVP. IMO this at
plus money is a clearly better choice than laying with the ML
and could even be safeguarded with some on the Bears ML
at a good price. Manning for MVP will be my biggest bet so
far this year.

steaktartar · Feb 4, 2007

Fishhead said:
If one likes the COLTS -7 -110...........think you have better value wagering PEYTON MANNING as being SUPERBOWL MVP @ EVEN MONEY or better..............-FH-

PINNY IF U CAN PLAY THERE HAS +110 ON MANNING I think your reasoning is very solid here if colts just win game between 1 and whatever..........he is odds on to win MVP good bet

amich1 · Feb 4, 2007

i posted this earlier in the week

the way i see it, basically a free shot to double up while risking 5% juice to play
Peyton to win MVP
w/
Bears ML

one of these two things will happen tonite.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2007

Remember, if the COLTS lose the game outright..........you save 25+ cents in vig!!!

Not to mention ALL the other scenarios that make this a better play for Colts backers!!

Also, is it possible that MANNING could win the MVP even if the Colts lose............answer, YES!

Chispa · Feb 4, 2007

Freaking brilliant.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2007

Chispa said:
Freaking brilliant.

Do I sense that as being a sarcastic comment??

:think2:

:toast: :toast: :toast:

MRPROFESSOR · Feb 4, 2007

hey fish, do you have an official selection for this game?

Iceman · Feb 4, 2007

good reasoning Fish. Now did you come up with that on your own or did some help you?

I like the way you think.

Now I have to think my Colts ML bet thru:ughhh: Maybe say screw it and just bet squares. I will probalbly have more on Lasalle today than the Super Bowl (sad but true)!!!

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2007

MR PROFESSOR said:
hey fish, do you have an official selection for this game?

Small LEAN to the favorite...............

In 25+ years of handicapping, let me give you my FAIRLY CLOSE W-L records on the following............which you can believe or not, but its the truth.

SUPERBOWL

5-20 .......20%

College Bowls

74-26......74%

MRPROFESSOR · Feb 4, 2007

that is hard to believe actually lol.

however i wouldnt put any stock in that 5-20 record, i know youre as sharp as they come.

Chispa · Feb 4, 2007

Fishhead said:
Do I sense that as being a sarcastic comment??

:think2:

:toast: :toast: :toast:

Totally sincere.

Fishhead · Feb 4, 2007

Thanks Chispa............have a profitable Superbowl.

-FH- wagering consideration for COLTS backers

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