NL West Observations and Prop Bets

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For the next couple of weeks, I will analyze and review each division’s proposition bets, and share ones that I have made and am pondering in making.

Dodgers
Division win payout: +150 Win totals: 88.5
Comment:
Pros:

In a division that consists of teams that lack power and possess spacious ballparks, pitching is a variable that is slightly magnified- and the Dodgers have the best in the division. The additions of Schmidt and Wolf are an upgrade to the rotation from Maddux and Sele, two pitchers that are now gone. The depth in their starting rotation is a good stabilizer in offsetting scoring droughts that made them prone to going into prolonged losing streaks that they were susceptible too last year making their win total proposition a compelling bet. Another nice addition is Pierre as their new leadoff batter, as his style of play compliments the lineup and combined with Furcal, will force opposing pitchers to pitch in stress situations against the heart of the lineup. The team could also have the best bullpen in the division if some of their front end options can live up to their potential. A hidden variable that I feel makes them the team to beat and makes their win total (Over) proposition a compelling one is the notion that they have the best and most aggressive GM in the division with Colletti. The roster that you see now can be completely different than the roster that they finish out the season with if everything doesn’t go as planned, making a bullish season long prop on the Dodgers desirable. The Dodgers also have some young players with a ton of upside potential that should play a key role on the team starting on opening day.

Cons:
Age. The heart of the Dodgers lineup is concerning, as their 3,4,5 hitters are past their prime and are injury prone. Garciapparra had a decent year last year, but is always a durability concern, and was horrible during the second half of the year. His 33 home runs the last three years combined leaves a lot to be desired. Kent as a cleanup hitter is also not an attractive option for a team that is favored to win the division. He showed last year that his best years are behind him, as his 14 home runs, lack of durability and poor fielding does not make him the player he once was. Gonzalez as the projected fifth batter is also suspect, as he is well past his prime and managed just 15 home runs last year in nearly 600 at bats. I am also expecting more of a 2005 effort than a 2006 performance out of Schmidt, while Lowe repeating last years season might be wishful thinking. The lack of a solid left handed pitcher can prove costly if Wolf doesn’t return to form.

Conclusion:
Although they are the team to beat in the division, their +150 payout for a season long proposition is not terribly compelling. They should finish the season with 85 to 90 wins, and they appear to be a slightly better team that last year, where they managed to win 88. But without any other team in the division taking a substantial downward turn, and their lack of hitters in the heart of the lineup will make an 89 plus win season (without and solid trades during the season) too speculative for my liking in a season long prop bet.
 

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SF Giants
Division Payout +370 Win totals: 80.5
Comment:
Pros:

Although the big free agent addition of Zito might pay big dividends, it might be the middle of the rotation that might be the most productive part of the Giants pitching staff. Cain has the stuff to be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, and should resemble more of the pitcher he was during the second half of the year rather than the struggling pitcher he was earlier in the season. Lowry also has a lot of upside potential, has yet to hit his prime, and should put forth a better year this year, as last year he was plagued by injury. If Hennessy or Sanchez round out the3 rotation, they will provide the Giants with another young arm with upside potential and an ability to surprise the public. Although neither Roberts nor Molina are big name free agents, they are both players that make their team much better. Molina is one of the best signal callers in baseball, which is a huge asset when working with a young pitching staff in which the Giants possess. His bat is also an upgrade. Roberts is a situational hitter, team player, and adds a dimension to the Giants game that they have been lacking for years, a leadoff batter that can steal bases. Bochey is also an upgrade in the managerial spot, as Alou did a poor job managing the bullpen during his stint as the Giants manager. His propensity to overkill some bullpen pitchers was potential the demise to their season last year.

Cons:
This team might have the worst 3,4,5 lineup in baseball. Although Aurillia had a solid year last year, he is not a bat you want at the third spot, nor is he a bat you want using up the first base position. Repeating last years numbers is also something that he should find hard to attain. Bonds is a huge question mark and does not provide the Giants with a dominant cleanup batter like he did in years past. Durham is not your normal fifth batter, and will also find it hard to repeat last years performance (which was in a contract year). Although last year proved otherwise, he, much like most of the Giants hitters, is past his prime. Feliz (a player that has never lived to his potential, lacks situational hitting and an OBP that resembles a pro player) Winn (another hitter, like Vizquel, is past his prime and lacks an ideal OBP) rounds up a Giants lineup that can potentially be the worst in the division. If Morris continues his downward trend, this team will find it hard finishing with a winning record. Probably their biggest weakness is their bullpen. Their closer, Benetez is a huge question mark and potentially a huge liability, especially since the Giants lack and ideal replacement if he continues to struggle. The lack of a setup man and solid long relief will also make it hard for the Giants to get Benitez his chances.

Conclusion:
In my opinion, this team has too many holes to win half of their games. This is the reason that I have already placed an Under 80.5 prop bet on their win total for the year. Although Cain and Lowry provide the Giants with a solid 3,4 combination, their 1,2 pitchers are overrated and overpaid. However, more concerning, is their lack of bullpen, and age that surrounds their roster which will make them vulnerable to burnout closing out the season. This team just doesn’t appear to have what it takes to finish with a winning record, and another season with a win total in the 70’s appears to be in store for the Giants.
 

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Arizona Diamondbacks
Division Payout: +660 Win Total: 78.5
Comment:
Pros:

This team is the biggest dark horse in the division, and it’s hard to know what to expect out of this team. The surprise of the division can be the Diamondbacks productivity that they will get out of their starting pitching staff. Webb provides them with a true number one and one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. However, it is what they might get out of the next three in their rotation that can put the Diamondbacks over the hump and allow them to finish the year with a winning record. The 2,3,4 pitchers on the team consists of 3 veteran pitchers coming off horrible years and are primed to improve. Although RJ is past his prime, expect him to put forth a much better season than last now that he is coming off back surgery and a clearer mental state. Hernandez was also was plagued by injuries last year and a lack of motivation, and if he can manage similar numbers to the ones he put up with the DBacks late last year, he will provide the team with a solid number 3. Davis also underachieved last year, and has the stuff to return back to form and provide the team with another solid southpaw in the rotation. Their bullpen improved a lot last year, and has some underrated pitchers. Although there is not much to get excited about as far as hitting goes, the Dbacks do have some young talent that can impress and one of the best fielding SS, 2B combos in baseball.

Cons:
The Dbacks are yet another team in the division that lacks a solid lineup. Byrnes is not your ideal cleanup hitter, but after leading the team with just 26 home runs, the Dbacks don’t have many other options. The back end up the lineup consists of young players that can be a bust. This is not something you want when coupled with a front end up a lineup that doesn’t strike any fear.

Conclusion:
Betting a season long prop on the Dbacks will consist of more speculation than most teams, as it’s hard to get a handle on a team that has three veteran pitchers coming off inferior years and a lineup that has half their players with under 60 career games. I see no reason to take any position on this team until one could get a better read on them.
 

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SD Padres
Division Payout: +300 Win Total: 84.5
Comment:
Pros:

This team has always had a propensity to play better than they appear on paper, so a bearish approach to this team is not a terribly compelling route to take. Looking at this team, and nothing terribly dominant stands out, however, unlike other teams in this division, this team lacks a glaring weakness. The Padres have never been known for a potent lineup, but have had success without it two years straight by winning the division. Gonzalez is one of the more underrated hitters in the league, while both Giles and Greene should be able to improve from last years numbers. Although the Padres managed 88 wins last year, they were able to do it with their ace finishing with an ERA that was 1.5 runs higher than what he averaged the two previous years. Peavy and Young provide a powerful one/two punch at the top of the rotation, while Henlsey can turn out to be one of the best 5th starters in the league this year. Their bullpen has always been an asset, and only losing Adkins, they should be able to continue to be such again this year.

Cons:
How long can this team continue to overachieve? Losing Bochey can prove costly, as he is one of the more underrated managers in the league. This team seriously lacks power, and could finish the year with just one hitting batting over .280. Wells and Maddux provide the Padres with big names and past accomplishments, but might also provide them with liabilities on the mound. All five starters are below average in eating up innings, which could lead to an overworked bullpen down the stretch. This can prove costly, as their star bullpen pitchers are getting up in age and may be past their prime. Neither Hoffman or Linebrink pitched well in the second half of the year, and if that trend continues, this teams win total may suffer, as they are built to win close games.

Conclusion:
On the surface, getting over 3 to 1 odds on a team to win its third straight division title appears to be generous, especially since they don’t appear to be much worse off than last year. On the surface, asking them to win more than 84 is not too much to ask either. However, in order to do so, this team will have to continue to overachieve, something I will not put my money on. But with no value for a bearish approach, I will not aggressively bet against them with a season long bet either.
 

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Colorado Rockies
Division Payout +1075 Win Total: 74.5
Comment:
Pros:
This team was on the most intriguing team last year in their division, as they started fast out of the gates with better than expected pitching. Although their pitching may be primed for another solid year, their hitting may be as well. The Rockies lineup is loaded with young talent. The top of the order may play better than most expect, as Taveras should improve his stolen base total from last year, while Carrol is one of the most underrated and better situational hitters in the league. Their 3,4,5 batters are as good as any in the division. Atkins is coming off a solid and underrated year, and combined with Holliday, the Rockies might have two .330 hitters that put up more than 30 home runs at the 3,4 spot. Although Helton is clearly at the end of his career, he could still manage a .300 average at the five spot and is backed by one of the better sixth batters in the league in Hawpe. Rounding up the lineup are two young prospects that should upgrade their respective positions compared to last year. Simply put, it is a battle between them and the Dodgers as the division’s best lineup. Although the Rockies lost their ace, they still have some young arms with potential. Cook is one of the more underrated sinker ball pitchers in the league, while Francis has as good of stuff as any other lefty in the division. The first half of the year last year, the Rockies had one of the deepest and best bullpens in the league. However, their bullpen slowed down late last year, but in large part thanks to Mesa and King, two pitchers no longer on the team. The Rockies still might have the deepest bullpen in the division, has the most underrated closer in the division, has a good balance of veteran and young arms, and lefties and right handers.

Cons:
This team is young, and still doesn’t know how to win on a consistent basis. Francis and Cook are both underrated, but are not ideal number one and two starters. Worse yet are their 3,4 and 5 pitchers, all who are highly inconstant and are all coming off seasons over ERA’s over 5. Eating up innings is also not what this starting rotation is built for, so their bullpen must perform well.

Conclusion:
This is the sleeper team in the division, and also possess the most value. Although winning the division is not probable, as some could argue there are at least 3 teams better than they are, in my opinion, they payout overcomes the risk. However, I feel that their win total has the most value, and have elected to place a position on the Over, as winning over 74 should not be a problem for this team that was able to win 76 last year. Expect an improved and potent lineup out of the Rockies this year. Although their starting pitching staff is suspect, their pitching depth in their bullpen will not put demand a lot of pressure on the back end of the staff. Don’t be surprised if this team manages 80 wins this year.
 

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good stuff. nice writeups. look out for the giants. bochy is gonna make a big difference. the starting rotation has a lot of potential with guys who can make spot starts and or pitch in the pen like sanchez, correia, hennessey. zito and cain should be dominant as 1/2. they should be favored to win almost every game that they pitch. Lowry, Sanchez, Correia all have big upside and i agree that Morris is gonna have to pitch better or take a seat. a performance like last year wont cut it. russ ortiz will be interesting as well.
the dodgers roster is scary with so much young talent but i really think that grady little is an idiot and will figure out a way to screw up. no reason on paper though the dodgers shouldnt win the division but i think the giants give them a run for their money while san diego i think will have an off year and arizona will be dangerous.
 

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