HORRIBLE theory my friend. You're not taking this into consideration; the 2006 Cardinals had the fewest games won during the regular season amongst all previous WS winners.
They won 83 games! Bodog currently has them at 84.5, OVER.
Here are my plays on all 30 teams in the game. I will check these at the end of the season and see how I did (I was 70% in NFL last two seasons, over 60% in MLB last season, over 65% the year before)...
NOTE: I'm going by Bodog futures as of 2/28...
Arizona - 78.5 - OVER
Atlanta - 82.5 - OVER
Baltimore - 73.5 - UNDER
Boston - 91 - OVER
Chicago (NL) - 84.5 - UNDER
Chicago (AL) - 87 - OVER*
Cincinnati - 77 - UNDER
Cleveland - 85.5 - OVER*
Colorado - 75.5 - UNDER
Detroit - 88.5 - UNDER*
Florida - 78.5 - UNDER
Houston - 78.5 - OVER
Kansas City - 67.5 - OVER
Los Angeles (NL) - 88.5 - OVER
Los Angeles (AL) - 90 - OVER
Milwaukee - 81.5 - UNDER
Minnesota - 83.5 - OVER
New York (NL) - 89.5 - UNDER
New York (AL) - 97 - UNDER
Oakland - 84.5 - OVER
Philadelphia - 88.5 - OVER
Pittsburgh - 72 - OVER
San Diego - 84.5 - OVER
San Francisco - 81.5 - UNDER
Seattle - 76.5 - UNDER
St. Louis - 84.5 - OVER*
Tampa Bay - 67.5 - OVER
Texas - 81 - OVER
Toronto - 86.5 - UNDER
Washington - 67 - UNDER
17 overs, 13 unders
* = my Top Plays, St. Louis over 84.5, Detroit under 88.5, Cleveland over 85.5, and the White Sox over 87. here's why...
St. Louis - very banged up last year with a very bad rotation (minus Carpenter and Suppan at the end of the year). They enter the season as the defending World Series Champions in a rather weak division. They brought back a lot of their key components and got rid of some waste (Jason Marquis). They won just 83 games last year but the pressure is off of their shoulders now. They got the monkey off their backs now and they can kick some ass. Pujols/Rolen/Edmons/Eckstein and company will keep their offense consistent enough to win at least 88 games. Carpenter/Suppan/Wainwright/Reyes and the rest of their staff will be much better than last season. Isringhausen won't be there to blow anymore saves and lose games. Also, look for them to make a huge deal before the deadline. Whether it's trading away Rolen or picking up some superstar (Miguel Cabrera), I see them pulling off a huge deal during the season.
Detroit - most overrated team of 2007. They were properly rated in 2006 and they proved that by winning the AL pennant. But their young pitchering staff will be under a lot of pressure and playing an extra month will come back to hurt them this season (just ask the 2006 White Sox how much an extra month can affect you the next season). Their offense will still be solid but nowhere near the '06 version. The addition of Gary Sheffield may make their lineup stronger, but it will also bring a lot of unwanted attention. He's already made headlines by not cooperating with George Mitchell in the steroid case. I see them topping off at 83 wins.
Cleveland - they have one of the best bullpens in the league. Their lineup is stacked from top to bottom. The only question mark is their starting rotation. Full of veterans and solid pitchers, health is the only concern. If Sabathia, Westbrook, Lee, and company can stay healthy, this team easily wins 90 games.
Chicago (AL) - They won 90 games last year (99 the year before) and they had a horrible Mark Buehrle, bad 1st half Jon Garland, bad 2nd half Jose Contreras, and a very shaky Javier Vazquez. Their bullpen wasn't all that sexy either. They now have a very solid bullpen which should be the best staff they've had in a while. Three of their four starters return in '07, but their best one is missing (Freddy Garcia). However, as a whole, the staff will be fresh and healthy, something they weren't last year. Buehrle will be ontop of his game, he has to be, as this is a contract year for him. He will make sure he earns Barry Zito money by finally winning 20 games and keeping his ERA in the low 3's. Garland has won more games than any Sox starter the last 3 seasons, including 18 in each of the last two. Contreras has officially been dubbed the ace of the 2007 staff and I see him proving it. Vazquez will either get his head out of his ass and overcome his 6th inning breakdowns, or John Danks/Nick Massett/Charlie Haeger will be right behind him waiting to take his spot. Gavin Floyd is the favorite to be the 5th starter, and word is the kid has great stuff. They will only go as far as their starting rotation goes, and I see them going far. Their lineup should be a little improved (they were very good in 2006) with Brian Anderson having a full season under his belt, Juan Uribe having to get his good name back after a bad offseason, and Podsednik having surgery on what has troubled him since the 2nd half of the 2005 season. The additions of Darin Erstad and Toby Hall make the Sox bench the best in the game (Mackowiak, Ozuna, and Cintron are there as well).
There you have it, hope I make you guys some money.
