MLB Team Win Totals ... Any Thoughts?

2007 MLB Regular Season Wins

Arizona Diamondbacks regular season wins
101 Over 78.5 Reg. Season Wins -115
102 Under 78.5 Reg. Season Wins +105

Atlanta Braves regular season wins
103 Over 83 Reg. Season Wins +102
104 Under 83 Reg. Season Wins -112

Baltimore Orioles regular season wins
105 Over 73.5 Reg. Season Wins -105
106 Under 73.5 Reg. Season Wins -105

Boston Red Sox regular season wins
107 Over 90.5 Reg. Season Wins -120
108 Under 90.5 Reg. Season Wins +110

Chicago Cubs regular season wins
109 Over 83.5 Reg. Season Wins -105
110 Under 83.5 Reg. Season Wins -105

Chicago White Sox regular season wins
111 Over 88.5 Reg. Season Wins -105
112 Under 88.5 Reg. Season Wins -105

Cincinnati Reds regular season wins
113 Over 76.5 Reg. Season Wins +102
114 Under 76.5 Reg. Season Wins -112

Cleveland Indians regular season wins
115 Over 86 Reg. Season Wins -105
116 Under 86 Reg. Season Wins -105

Colorado Rockies regular season wins
117 Over 76 Reg. Season Wins -105
118 Under 76 Reg. Season Wins -105

Detroit Tigers regular season wins
119 Over 88.5 Reg. Season Wins +100
120 Under 88.5 Reg. Season Wins -110

Florida Marlins regular season wins
121 Over 78 Reg. Season Wins -112
122 Under 78 Reg. Season Wins +102

Houston Astros regular season wins
123 Over 78.5 Reg. Season Wins -106
124 Under 78.5 Reg. Season Wins -104

Kansas City Royals regular season wins
125 Over 67 Reg. Season Wins -104
126 Under 67 Reg. Season Wins -106

Los Angeles Angels regular season wins
127 Over 90.5 Reg. Season Wins +105
128 Under 90.5 Reg. Season Wins -115

Los Angeles Dodgers regular season wins
129 Over 88.5 Reg. Season Wins +104
130 Under 88.5 Reg. Season Wins -114

Milwaukee Brewers regular season wins
131 Over 80.5 Reg. Season Wins -105
132 Under 80.5 Reg. Season Wins -105

Minnesota Twins regular season wins
133 Over 83.5 Reg. Season Wins -115
134 Under 83.5 Reg. Season Wins +105

New York Mets regular season wins
135 Over 89.5 Reg. Season Wins -105
136 Under 89.5 Reg. Season Wins -105

New York Yankees regular season wins
137 Over 96.5 Reg. Season Wins -116
138 Under 96.5 Reg. Season Wins +106

Oakland Athletics regular season wins
139 Over 85.5 Reg. Season Wins +105
140 Under 85.5 Reg. Season Wins -115

Philadelphia Phillies regular season wins
141 Over 88.5 Reg. Season Wins +108
142 Under 88.5 Reg. Season Wins -118

Pittsburgh Pirates regular season wins
143 Over 71.5 Reg. Season Wins -107
144 Under 71.5 Reg. Season Wins -103

San Diego Padres regular season wins
145 Over 83.5 Reg. Season Wins -123
146 Under 83.5 Reg. Season Wins +113

San Francisco Giants regular season wins
147 Over 81 Reg. Season Wins +102
148 Under 81 Reg. Season Wins -112

Seattle Mariners regular season wins
149 Over 78.5 Reg. Season Wins -108
150 Under 78.5 Reg. Season Wins -102

St Louis Cardinals regular season wins
151 Over 85 Reg. Season Wins -120
152 Under 85 Reg. Season Wins +100

Tampa Bay Devil Rays regular season wins
153 Over 67.5 Reg. Season Wins -105
154 Under 67.5 Reg. Season Wins -105

Texas Rangers regular season wins
155 Over 80.5 Reg. Season Wins -104
156 Under 80.5 Reg. Season Wins -106

Toronto Blue Jays regular season wins
157 Over 87 Reg. Season Wins -110
158 Under 87 Reg. Season Wins +100

Washington Nationals regular season wins
159 Over 68 Reg. Season Wins +102
160 Under 68 Reg. Season Wins -112
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MINE:

All These Over :

Cubs

Detriot

Milwaukee

Pitt

I dont like having 3 NL Central teams to be all going over their projections

INTRESTING ARTICLE I FOUND ABOUT THIS:

Oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book have just posted regular-season victory totals for the 2007 major league baseball season.

One of the most popular forms of season-long baseball betting, season-wins wagering allows gamblers to bet "over" or "under" a projected total of victories for each major league team.

For the 2007 season, totals on the board at the Hilton range from an opening line of 96 1/2 wins for the New York Yankees to an opener of 66 1/2 wins for the Washington Nationals.

The Yankees went 97-65 last year to win the AL East; the Nats finished 71-91, last in the NL East.

Bettors who take what could be called a "macro" approach to baseball season wins might look to play under on the teams with the highest win totals attached to them, and over on the teams carrying the lowest win totals.

Their thinking goes something like this: Professional sports teams tend to gravitate toward their league's mean number of victories over time, and the betting marketplace overvalues the top teams while underrating the cellar-dwellers.

Following this template - betting under the five highest totals and over the five lowest on the baseball betting board - has been a profitable strategy the past two seasons.

Last year this approach yielded a total of 12 plays because the totals of two teams "tied" for the fifth spot. Two years ago it yielded 11 plays.

In 2006 bettors using this angle would have achieved a record of 5-1 playing under the six highest totals, cashing tickets on the Yankees (97 1/2 posted total, 97 actual wins), St. Louis Cardinals (93 1/2, 83), Boston Red Sox (92 1/2, 86), Chicago White Sox (92, 90) and Cleveland Indians (90 1/2, 78) while losing on the New York Mets (90 1/2, 97).


Playing over the six lowest totals went 3-3, winning on the Florida Marlins (66 1/2, 78), Colorado Rockies (69 1/2, 76) and Arizona Diamondbacks (72 1/2, 76) while losing on the Kansas City Royals (63 1/2, 62), Tampa Bay Devil Rays (69, 61) and Baltimore Orioles (72 1/2, 70).

In 2005 playing under the six highest totals went 3-2-1. It won on the Yankees (101 1/2, 95), Minnesota Twins (89 1/2, 83) and Chicago Cubs (89 1/2, 79). It lost on the Cardinals (93 1/2, 100) and L.A. Angels (91 1/2, 95) and pushed on the Red Sox (95, 95).

Playing over the lowest totals in 2005 went 3-1-1. It won on the Nationals (68 1/2, 81), Toronto Blue Jays (69, 80) and Milwaukee Brewers (69, 81). It lost on the Royals (65, 56) and pushed on the Rockies (67, 67).

Overall, that's a record of 14-7-2 (.667), certainly strong enough to make good money at the betting windows.

It's also worth noting that even in this small sample of 23 wagers, there were two pushes, or ties against the posted total. This illustrates the importance of securing the best possible number before betting.

By opening day, it's likely a handful of Las Vegas sports books will have placed baseball season-wins over/unders on the board. It's not unusual for the total on particular team to vary by a half-game or a game - and finding a more attractive betting line by just a half-game on the Rockies and Red Sox would have turned two pushes into winning tickets, raising that 14-7-2 mark to 16-7 (.696).

There are never any guarantees in sports betting, but gamblers subscribing to this strategy will be looking at plays on the following teams under for 2007: Yankees (96 1/2), Red Sox (90 1/2), Angels (89 1/2), Dodgers (88 1/2) and Phillies (88). It's telling that bettors would have to play under three totals in the 80s, more than in 2006 (zero) and 2005 (two) put together.

They'll be looking to go over these teams' posted 2007 regular-season victory totals: Nationals (66 1/2), Royals (67), Devil Rays (67), Pittsburgh Pirates (71 1/2) and Orioles (73 1/2).

One other team last year where it paid to shop around was the Blue jays. They were 86.5 and 87 most places. I took them at under 87.5 at WWTS and, you guessed it, they won 87 for a win that was a loss or tie at most places. It happens more than one would think with a 162 game season.

Ironically , the above bet would be my last at WWTS as they kicked us Americans out shortly after and wasn't paid for a while until Bodog took the US accounts!

This year I like:

Pirates over 71.5

Still looking for more.

I posted this in the other win totals thread...


Here are my plays on all 30 teams in the game. I will check these at the end of the season and see how I did (I was 70% in NFL last two seasons, over 60% in MLB last season, over 65% the year before)...

NOTE: I'm going by Bodog futures as of 2/28...

Arizona - 78.5 - OVER
Atlanta - 82.5 - OVER
Baltimore - 73.5 - UNDER
Boston - 91 - OVER
Chicago (NL) - 84.5 - UNDER
Chicago (AL) - 87 - OVER*
Cincinnati - 77 - UNDER
Cleveland - 85.5 - OVER*
Colorado - 75.5 - UNDER
Detroit - 88.5 - UNDER*
Florida - 78.5 - UNDER
Houston - 78.5 - OVER
Kansas City - 67.5 - OVER
Los Angeles (NL) - 88.5 - OVER
Los Angeles (AL) - 90 - OVER
Milwaukee - 81.5 - UNDER
Minnesota - 83.5 - OVER
New York (NL) - 89.5 - UNDER
New York (AL) - 97 - UNDER
Oakland - 84.5 - OVER
Philadelphia - 88.5 - OVER
Pittsburgh - 72 - OVER
San Diego - 84.5 - OVER
San Francisco - 81.5 - UNDER
Seattle - 76.5 - UNDER
St. Louis - 84.5 - OVER*
Tampa Bay - 67.5 - OVER
Texas - 81 - OVER
Toronto - 86.5 - UNDER
Washington - 67 - UNDER

17 overs, 13 unders


* = my Top Plays, St. Louis over 84.5, Detroit under 88.5, Cleveland over 85.5, and the White Sox over 87. here's why...

St. Louis - very banged up last year with a very bad rotation (minus Carpenter and Suppan at the end of the year). They enter the season as the defending World Series Champions in a rather weak division. They brought back a lot of their key components and got rid of some waste (Jason Marquis). They won just 83 games last year but the pressure is off of their shoulders now. They got the monkey off their backs now and they can kick some ass. Pujols/Rolen/Edmons/Eckstein and company will keep their offense consistent enough to win at least 88 games. Carpenter/Suppan/Wainwright/Reyes and the rest of their staff will be much better than last season. Isringhausen won't be there to blow anymore saves and lose games. Also, look for them to make a huge deal before the deadline. Whether it's trading away Rolen or picking up some superstar (Miguel Cabrera), I see them pulling off a huge deal during the season.

Detroit - most overrated team of 2007. They were properly rated in 2006 and they proved that by winning the AL pennant. But their young pitchering staff will be under a lot of pressure and playing an extra month will come back to hurt them this season (just ask the 2006 White Sox how much an extra month can affect you the next season). Their offense will still be solid but nowhere near the '06 version. The addition of Gary Sheffield may make their lineup stronger, but it will also bring a lot of unwanted attention. He's already made headlines by not cooperating with George Mitchell in the steroid case. I see them topping off at 83 wins.

Cleveland - they have one of the best bullpens in the league. Their lineup is stacked from top to bottom. The only question mark is their starting rotation. Full of veterans and solid pitchers, health is the only concern. If Sabathia, Westbrook, Lee, and company can stay healthy, this team easily wins 90 games.

Chicago (AL) - They won 90 games last year (99 the year before) and they had a horrible Mark Buehrle, bad 1st half Jon Garland, bad 2nd half Jose Contreras, and a very shaky Javier Vazquez. Their bullpen wasn't all that sexy either. They now have a very solid bullpen which should be the best staff they've had in a while. Three of their four starters return in '07, but their best one is missing (Freddy Garcia). However, as a whole, the staff will be fresh and healthy, something they weren't last year. Buehrle will be ontop of his game, he has to be, as this is a contract year for him. He will make sure he earns Barry Zito money by finally winning 20 games and keeping his ERA in the low 3's. Garland has won more games than any Sox starter the last 3 seasons, including 18 in each of the last two. Contreras has officially been dubbed the ace of the 2007 staff and I see him proving it. Vazquez will either get his head out of his ass and overcome his 6th inning breakdowns, or John Danks/Nick Massett/Charlie Haeger will be right behind him waiting to take his spot. Gavin Floyd is the favorite to be the 5th starter, and word is the kid has great stuff. They will only go as far as their starting rotation goes, and I see them going far. Their lineup should be a little improved (they were very good in 2006) with Brian Anderson having a full season under his belt, Juan Uribe having to get his good name back after a bad offseason, and Podsednik having surgery on what has troubled him since the 2nd half of the 2005 season. The additions of Darin Erstad and Toby Hall make the Sox bench the best in the game (Mackowiak, Ozuna, and Cintron are there as well).


There you have it, hope I make you guys some money.

Anyone want to elabotatre on the attraction to the Pitt. over 72.
This seems like a team that gives up a few times throughout the season.

O/T...Does any pitcher win 21 games this year?

Some people like Pirates over because they went 37-35 after Break last year(after 30-60 before). Still added up to 67 wins same as year before and their 14th straight losing record. 72 wins doesn't seem that high for a seemingly improving team but I say that almost every year and am a Pirate fan and they continue to dissapoint. Impartial observers I have talked to like them this year for a .500 record any way. Reasonable over bet for me.

take the over on red sox easy money

Ramonskee said:

Arizona - 78.5 - OVER
Atlanta - 82.5 - OVER
Baltimore - 73.5 - UNDER
Boston - 91 - OVER
Chicago (NL) - 84.5 - UNDER
Chicago (AL) - 87 - OVER*
Cincinnati - 77 - UNDER
Cleveland - 85.5 - OVER*
Colorado - 75.5 - UNDER
Detroit - 88.5 - UNDER*
Florida - 78.5 - UNDER
Houston - 78.5 - OVER
Kansas City - 67.5 - OVER
Los Angeles (NL) - 88.5 - OVER
Los Angeles (AL) - 90 - OVER
Milwaukee - 81.5 - UNDER
Minnesota - 83.5 - OVER
New York (NL) - 89.5 - UNDER
New York (AL) - 97 - UNDER
Oakland - 84.5 - OVER
Philadelphia - 88.5 - OVER
Pittsburgh - 72 - OVER
San Diego - 84.5 - OVER
San Francisco - 81.5 - UNDER
Seattle - 76.5 - UNDER
St. Louis - 84.5 - OVER*
Tampa Bay - 67.5 - OVER
Texas - 81 - OVER
Toronto - 86.5 - UNDER
Washington - 67 - UNDER

17 overs, 13 unders

Click to expand...

14-12 so far with 4 totals pending.
2-2 on "top plays"