The REAL Opening Line

austintx05 · Mar 4, 2007

During the course of the NBA season, I have been tracking results based on opening/closing lines. What I am curious about is what is the REAL opener?

Using SBR/DonBest/Wagerline...I can find out what the offshore opener is...

Using vegasinsider..I can find out what the LVSC opener is...

I am under the assumption that LVSC is the REAL opener...I am assuming that they open the line first then offshore....but do I have my wires crossed? Is it the other way around?

Any feedback would be helpful..

Thank You

:toast:

ensign_lee · Mar 4, 2007

My understand is between Cris, Pinny, and Oly, the lines are formed.

Cris usually bends to pressure. It's a give and take with Pinny and Oly.

austintx05 · Mar 4, 2007

So you are saying the accurate openeing line is with offshore and not the LVSC opener?

austintx05 · Mar 4, 2007

For example. Tonight's NBA Charlotte @ Seattle

Vegas Insider shows LVSC opener was Seattle -7
CRIS was the first to open this morning offhosre Seattle -9.5

So what is the REAL opener?

bellyputter · Mar 4, 2007

austintx05 · Mar 4, 2007

so offshore is the accurate REAL opening line?

MitchCumstein · Mar 4, 2007

You will never see the "Real Opener". The places mentioned above open their # based on the bets they take befor they accually post on Don Best or even on their site. Each book has sharp bettors call first and they take bets from
2-4 different people, then set "The Opening Line" for everyone else. So the opening number you see at Pinny Cris and Oly, have been opened in house about a half hour before they post it to the public.

austintx05 · Mar 4, 2007

Mitch Cumstein said:
You will never see the "Real Opener". The places mentioned above open their # based on the bets they take befor they accually post on Don Best or even on their site. Each book has sharp bettors call first and they take bets from
2-4 different people, then set "The Opening Line" for everyone else. So the opening number you see at Pinny Cris and Oly, have been opened in house about a half hour before they post it to the public.

This is more along the lines of what I was thinking...

So would you lean to say the more accurate number resides in Vegas or Offshore?

VIEJODINOSAUR · Mar 4, 2007

Mitch....are you one of those select few that get the REAL openers......LOL

gynecologist · Mar 4, 2007

Mitch Cumstein said:
You will never see the "Real Opener". The places mentioned above open their # based on the bets they take befor they accually post on Don Best or even on their site. Each book has sharp bettors call first and they take bets from
2-4 different people, then set "The Opening Line" for everyone else. So the opening number you see at Pinny Cris and Oly, have been opened in house about a half hour before they post it to the public.

This is what I've always heard..

wilheim · Mar 4, 2007

Each book has sharp bettors call first and they take bets from

That is true although I doubt if each book does it themselves. The original line that is posted first by LVSC has been sharpened by a group of very sharp players who are allowed to bet into what the LVSC linemaker thinks the right numbers are and then adjusted accordingly. This is what was always known as the "Outlaw Line" and was the invention of Bob Martin 40 years or so ago.

Eg. LVSC Linemaker makes The Lakers -4 and the Outlaw players all lay it he will open Lakers -6 or -6.5. etc. etc.

Natrually like Mitch says individual books can and probably do the same thing. However the vast majority of books wait for lines to flatten out before they hang them and do not need these early bettors.

wil.

austintx05 · Mar 4, 2007

Ok...I appreciate everyone's response in here and I hate to sound redundant...but based on the info provided in this thread would you say the closest to the REAL opener is LVSC or offshore?

bellyputter · Mar 4, 2007

VIEJO, remember the sunday night "outlaw" line?

BadCo · Mar 4, 2007

spaeking of the LVSC line a funny story.

There was a casino website that opened a sportsbook was three of them only one I can remenber the name is Lucky Dog.

They posted these LVSC overnight and that was the end of it.

Me and my buddy(who I met at another site by posting his e-mail if anyone wanted these bogus lines,he got banned for that was 2003)took them to school.

It was like free money except for the fact they only paid via US postal.

They have since got out of the sportsbook operations.

wilheim · Mar 4, 2007

IMO you can get as close to the average man on the street can get to the real openers by following BetCRIS. You can either use sources like Rx. Live Lines which happens to post BetCRIS' openers or you can be logged on to their website when the lines actually go up and note the openers from actual real time. Finding out what any specially selected early bettors (the real openers) bet into is next to impossible for the average guy.

wil.

austintx05 · Mar 4, 2007

ok...so going based off of CRIS' opener would be more accurate that that from LVSC?

wilheim · Mar 4, 2007

BTW. These days the original line is probably not even bet into rather than appraised by paid consultants who work for LVSC.

wil.

wilheim · Mar 4, 2007

ok...so going based off of CRIS' opener would be more accurate that that from LVSC?

I really don't know anymore - myabe Viejo Dinosaur will comment.

I remember calling offshore bookmakers with openers from pay phones in front of The Stardust going back 20 years ago at 8AM Pacific every morning.

wil..

austintx05 · Mar 4, 2007

Sorry making it so difficult wil...I do appreciate your reponses.

I understand that I cannot get the exact same opener that this group of people get before its released publicly...just trying to get as close to the REAL opener as possible.

I revert back to my original example

LVSC - Seattle -7
CRIS - Seattle -9.5

What is the REAL opener?

wilheim · Mar 4, 2007

I revert back to my original example

LVSC - Seattle -7
CRIS - Seattle -9.5

I would say the real opener is the number the rest of the world did NOT open with. Natrually that number (real opener) is never going to be widely available unless the number moves back to it for one reason or another, like an injury, weather, very heavy public money etc..Almost all of your offshores will have openers that have been flattend out to some degree before they are hung.

wil.