Need Hockey betting help vs a local- Opinions needed

I have a local who says if you take favorite it is ALWAYS -1.5 goals at -100/+100 for the bet and if you take dog it is always +1 goal -100/+100.

So for tonite he has NY Rangers -1.5 -100/+100
and
NY Islanders +1 -100/+100


Can I swing the odds in my favor for this too work? How much is a half a goal worth on average I guess would be the 1st question.

I would assume in this 1st example of tonites game that NY Islanders +1 -100 is a great bet as they are +104 on the money line. So I would say small money line dogs getting a goal and being -100 are +ev bets.

Am I on to something betting this or will the odds always be in his fair? It seems this could be very beneficial. What am I missing here?

sall fishhead stupid.

Nice find, most of the time you'll be playing dog+1 at +100 but sometimes favourite-1.5 will be the side.

Tonight if NYI+1.5 is -200 and ML is +100 then NYI+1 calculates to -150.

The value of 0.5, 1 and 1.5 goals is dependent on the moneyline. You can always get the numbers from Pinny as well as using the ML, RL odds to calculate a synthetic-1 line (discussed sometime ago). Offhand I'd say you can get at least 20-25% +EV over the Pinny real line.

Ice don't know if this helps, but I only play dogs currently 37-20 +13,075. If played it at your book would be 37-9 +14,000. Considering I've lost my last three games bet in a shootout, not much difference. Plus your total would be higher than 13,075 'cause you have waaay more outs!

not that simple

It depeds on the total of the game as well. Lower totals mean each half goal is worth more.

For example, take tommorow's game. Using Pinny's current lines

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Tue 3/6</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>51</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New Jersey Devils</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +155 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -201 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 5.5 +100 <TD vAlign=center rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>52</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Philadelphia Flyers</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -165 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +183 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 5.5 -110 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

subtracting the VIG (e.g. assuming the "True" line is Philly +1.5 -160)

In this case the equivalent line (using an analytical model to calculate) is Philly +1 -105. Meaning the 1/2 goal is worth 55 cents in this case

betedgeonly said:

sall fishhead stupid.

Click to expand...

call

Iceman said:

I have a local who says if you take favorite it is ALWAYS -1.5 goals at -100/+100 for the bet and if you take dog it is always +1 goal -100/+100.

So for tonite he has NY Rangers -1.5 -100/+100
and
NY Islanders +1 -100/+100
Can I swing the odds in my favor for this too work? How much is a half a goal worth on average I guess would be the 1st question.

I would assume in this 1st example of tonites game that NY Islanders +1 -100 is a great bet as they are +104 on the money line. So I would say small money line dogs getting a goal and being -100 are +ev bets.

Am I on to something betting this or will the odds always be in his fair? It seems this could be very beneficial. What am I missing here?

Click to expand...

hey tubby little fishhead they pushed tonite...:bigfinger

u tried using pinny drop down box? or do they even have one for hockey? u may be able to make a bet or two a week with this guy but he should be tough

Iceman said:

I have a local who says if you take favorite it is ALWAYS -1.5 goals at -100/+100 for the bet and if you take dog it is always +1 goal -100/+100.

So for tonite he has NY Rangers -1.5 -100/+100
and
NY Islanders +1 -100/+100


Can I swing the odds in my favor for this too work? How much is a half a goal worth on average I guess would be the 1st question.

I would assume in this 1st example of tonites game that NY Islanders +1 -100 is a great bet as they are +104 on the money line. So I would say small money line dogs getting a goal and being -100 are +ev bets.

Am I on to something betting this or will the odds always be in his fair? It seems this could be very beneficial. What am I missing here?

Click to expand...

if you can buy a goal for .04 you are stealing

Tkeller said:

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tue 3/6</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">51</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New Jersey Devils</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">

-1.5 +155 </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">

-201 </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">

OVER 5.5 +100 </td><td rowspan="2" valign="center"></td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">04:05 PM</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">52</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Philadelphia Flyers</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">

+1.5 -165 </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">

+183 </td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">

UNDER 5.5 -110 </td></tr></tbody></table>

subtracting the VIG (e.g. assuming the "True" line is Philly +1.5 -160)

In this case the equivalent line (using an analytical model to calculate) is Philly +1 -105. Meaning the 1/2 goal is worth 55 cents in this case

Click to expand...

Using the above odds you can buy Flyers+1 for +106.79, so the half goal is worth over 71 cents using the lines you are able to get.

Tkeller said:

It depeds on the total of the game as well. Lower totals mean each half goal is worth more.

Click to expand...

Looking at all of today's games using Pinny lines I find as follows:


<table class="MsoTableClassic3" style="border: medium none ; border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: black -moz-use-text-color black black; border-width: 1.5pt medium 1pt 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: navy none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> +1.5 RL <o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: solid none; border-color: black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1.5pt medium 1pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: navy none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> Total goals <o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: black black black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1.5pt 1.5pt 1pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: navy none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> Value of 0.5 goal (cents)<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -250<o></o>
</td> <td style="border: medium none ; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 6.5<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid none none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1.5pt medium medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 78<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -246<o></o>
</td> <td style="border: medium none ; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 6<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid none none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1.5pt medium medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 79<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -236<o></o>
</td> <td style="border: medium none ; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 5.5<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid none none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1.5pt medium medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 86<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -225<o></o>
</td> <td style="border: medium none ; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 5<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid none none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1.5pt medium medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 79<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -183<o></o>
</td> <td style="border: medium none ; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 5<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid none none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1.5pt medium medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 69<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -163<o></o>
</td> <td style="border: medium none ; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 6.5<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid none none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1.5pt medium medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 64<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -163<o></o>
</td> <td style="border: medium none ; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 5.5<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid none none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1.5pt medium medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 68<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -154<o></o>
</td> <td style="border: medium none ; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 6<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid none none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1.5pt medium medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: silver none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 61<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: black -moz-use-text-color black black; border-width: 1.5pt medium 1.5pt 1.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: white none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> -148<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: solid none; border-color: black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1.5pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: white none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 6.5<o></o>
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: black black black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1.5pt 1.5pt 1.5pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: white none repeat scroll 0%; width: 88.55pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" valign="top" width="118"> 63<o></o>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
which, from inspection, indicates that the value of half a goal depends upon both the ML and the total number of goals.

With enough data, which I don't care to collect, one could get the correlations.

Absolutely correct.

Without getting too technical, Hockey is a sport that can be modeled quite precisely.

The properly-built model, once calibrated with any established (e.g. consensus) line and total, can be used to readily determine the value of a new line. Again, all you need is one set of numbers (spread and total), to run the model. Then its easy to determine the value of a new line. Pinny has a puckline, spread, and total. You can use any two to derive the other. And yes, one can sometimes be off.

As you have shown, by looking at games with the same puckline but different totals, you will see how (in most cases) Pinny adjusts the M/L accordingly.