System Talk

I am more of a system player than a handicapper and have a couple things in mind for the season (will disclose later, not the subject of this post). I am not opposed to martingale systems and DO NOT want to discuss the merits (or lack thereof) of martingale system so please do not address that in this thread.

I am looking for ideas or systems that you have heard for baseball, whether dogs, favorites, o/u, whatever. I want to really lock in something that will/should work and work well.

Let's hear what you have.

I have pretty much all the data for 99-06 so if something sounds good, we should be able to back check it pretty easily.

good to see you here fhmes, I'll get back to you on this once the march madness settles down for me this weekend

This one i heard about, i don't have the info to back it up. if u like it u can start a post this season and i will follow looks pretty solid. let me know wat u think.

Rules for the 5 run 4-Game Chase System

1) Use only teams with a winning percentage of .470 or lower.
2) Wait for that team to win a game by 5 runs or more.
3) Skip that teams next 2 games.
4) Bet against that team for up to the next 4 games.
5) If the team wins by 5 runs or more during the series, skip another 2 games and begin again.
6) If two <.470 teams are scheduled to meet each other next, we will cancel out that series. If they face each other in the middle of a series, we will cancel out that series as well.
7) The betting process is:
a) Place your wager (unit)
b) If you lose, bet what you lost, plus a unit.
c) Collect a unit when you win

mofak7 said:

This one i heard about, i don't have the info to back it up. if u like it u can start a post this season and i will follow looks pretty solid. let me know wat u think.

Rules for the 5 run 4-Game Chase System

1) Use only teams with a winning percentage of .470 or lower.
2) Wait for that team to win a game by 5 runs or more.
3) Skip that teams next 2 games.
4) Bet against that team for up to the next 4 games.
5) If the team wins by 5 runs or more during the series, skip another 2 games and begin again.
6) If two <.470 teams are scheduled to meet each other next, we will cancel out that series. If they face each other in the middle of a series, we will cancel out that series as well.
7) The betting process is:
a) Place your wager (unit)
b) If you lose, bet what you lost, plus a unit.
c) Collect a unit when you win

Click to expand...

5) Do you abandon the current series if a team you are fading wins a game by 5 or simply start them in a second series?
6) when you say cancel do you mean abandon or stop playing and pick it back up when they play a team >.470?

Do you have any idea the results from this system? Even estimates or what you have heard.

BTW, I imagine Frankster will be back during the regular season. He kind of just posted his plays and then left, not a big poster in other threads. If he doesn't, I and many others know his system and could post it.

well, i hope it ain't dwight man they threw him off the police force man

elvis1 said:

well, i hope it ain't dwight man they threw him off the police force man

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??????????

naw, it is pretty simple. u wait till the team wins a game by 5 or more and skip two games and then fade them, if the win by five or more while fading u rest for another two games then start again, i would only chase for 4 games.

cancel means when u look at the upcoming schedule after skipping two games if there is another <.470 team on schedule don't play the series.

last year i think it netted 40+ units most wins coming in the first game and never went pass 3 games

i'm really interest in frankster system so i would happy if u can start it when the season starts it seemed only profitable in the 1st half of the season but fell apart in the second half.

what other systems are u looking at currently?

here is a scenario, team is <.470

win by 6 - starts series
skip
skip
win by 1 - lose game 1
win by 7 - lose game 2
skip
skip
Do you pick up game 3 or start over at game 1 and accept the two game loss?

So you are also saying that if a team <.470 is scheduled for 1 of the 4 games you would pass that series all together, correct?

a couple of things,

- if a team loses 2 straight games where they are home favorites of -130 or higher, chase that team the next four games when they are HF of -130 or higher until winning once. The games do not have to be consecutive.

- if a team wins 2 straight games where they are road dogs of +110 or higher, fade that team the next four games when they are RD of +110 or higher until winning one. The games do not have to be consecutive.

The combined results for those two series from 06-01 are:

101
133
224
270
-11
245

I checked those with Pinny numbers and it was 05 where Pinny went to dime lines and really began changing lines quickly. I don't know if that or the drug testing is responsible for the lesser results the last two years. I suppose we will find out this year as I am using CRIS or 5Dimes regular lines as the determining line for plays.

Other System:

If a team loses at least 3 straight games, is a home favorite in their next game and has a winning percentage of >.450, chase that team for the next 4 games until winning.

If a team wins at least 3 straight games, is a home dog in their next game and has a winning percentage <.550, fade that team for the next 4 games until winning.

If a team wins at least 3 straight games and is a ROAD dog in their next game, fade that team for the next 4 games until winning.

The combined results for the 3 immediately above systems are:

06 +64
05 +92
04 -100 (from my review, a complete anomaly, don't really know what happened)
03 +74
02 +137
01 +82
00 +111

I don't really know what happened in 04. I am going to take the risk that it was a just statistical anomaly.

I know it may sound confusing, but it is really pretty simple and I will set up a spreadsheet for me that will spit out the plays when we have them. It is actually a ton of work to keep it updated. I just hope I don't get burned out.

I would really like something using o/u as well. If I get squared away on the parameters of your system I can back check pretty easily.

yea u r rite, u pick up at 3, supposedly chase till game 4, but as u know about systems we can also use our discression when u feel it would be needed. i like ur other systems. i just hope u can keep up a thread so i can tail it. if u get everything set-up with spreadsheets u can mail it to me and when u think u can post anymore, i will take over or can help from time to time because i'll try to keep my spreadsheet updated with u.

we gat to do this i'm putting alot on this baseball season and want to be up at least 150 units by season's end for real

mofak7 said:

yea u r rite, u pick up at 3, supposedly chase till game 4, but as u know about systems we can also use our discression when u feel it would be needed. i like ur other systems. i just hope u can keep up a thread so i can tail it. if u get everything set-up with spreadsheets u can mail it to me and when u think u can post anymore, i will take over or can help from time to time because i'll try to keep my spreadsheet updated with u.

we gat to do this i'm putting alot on this baseball season and want to be up at least 150 units by season's end for real

Click to expand...

Cool, I am going to run the numbers on your system and will let you know how they come out.

We can work out something if I get burned out.

Mofak,

Just ran the numbers on your system for last year and without excluding teams that were playing teams also <.470, it would have been 163-7 on a 4 game chase. Three of the 7 losses did come to a team that was under .470 winning % so they would have been passes. I don't know how many wins we would have passed on, but there would have been 4 losses during last season.

It would have been too difficult to calculate all of the opponents winning % at the time of play. I will also run the numbers from 05-99.

I wonder if the converse would work as well; i.e., if a team >.530 loses a game by 5+, play them to win one of their next 4.

Mofak,

Sorry, one last thing on those numbers, I also had to exclude step 5 due to excel formula limitations.

Regarding the reverse of that system I noted about w/ teams >.530. in 06 it would have been 209-15 with no passes, but 11 of the losses came when a +.530 opponent was scheduled. That reduces the losses to 4, not sure how many wins would be knocked off the 209. Likewise, I also had to exclude step 5 due to the formula limitations.

Those systems that have already been posted in this thread seem pretty interesting. Here is one system that I will probably be following from may 15th-Sept 15th this year:

-----------

Past Underdog Post
How to win big $$ in baseball winning only 33% of the time!
Gentlemen,

Baseball is one of the easiest sports to make money at if you quit chasing away your money playing favourites and start playing dogs...this system has made me over 6-digits the last two years and will work if you follow my lead..........I will explain how this works and will be somewhat lengthy but worth the reading.

First, please realize that there is way too much emphasis put on starting pitchers in a game...why???...Simple, think about how many games are won in the 8th and 9th innings when the starters are no longer around...enough said!

Second, use the simple mathematical formula by looking at any winning team in the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very best teams hardly ever win more that 67% of their games...A team that wins 100 games in a season still loses 62! (38%)

Third, use the simple mathematical formula by looking at any of the worst teams for the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very worst teams win at least 55 games a year! (34%)

Yes, there are a few exceptions to the above but overall have stood the test of time!

In other words, even the very best teams average losing 1 in every three games and even the very worst teams average winning 1 in every 3 games. This will be important later on.

What does all this mean underdog??? I will tell you now!

I call this feature Baseball the Underdog Way!


What I generally look for (with a multitude of variations) is a generally weaker team playing on the road at a .500 or stronger opponent. What this guarantees me is, that my weaker team will be an underdog for all games in the series. I AM COUNTING ON MY WEAKER TEAM TO WIN AT LEAST 1 OF THE GAMES IN THE SERIES. A series is usually 3 games but sometimes can be 4. Once your team wins, you must stop and wait for the next series to begin!

Here is an example of a series:

Tampa Bay @ Ny Yankees

Game 1 NYY -200 Tampa +180
Game 2 NYY -180 Tampa +160
Game 3 NYY -230 Tampa +190


You may start with any bankroll that you wish...I personally will start with $7000. Divide your starting bankroll by 7 (this example $1000). The reason that you divide by 7 is that if you lose game 1, you double game 2 and if that loses, then you double game 2 amount for game 3.

If you win the first game, stop--you made $1800
If you lose game one, double your bet for game 2 ($2000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $2200 ($3200 win for game 2 - game 1 loss of $1000).
If you lose game two, double the amount from game 2 ($4000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $4200 ($7200 win for game 3 - game 1 and 2 loss of $3000)
If you lose, sorry to you and me............I have done this for the past 3 years for a total of 162 series---I have won 160 times and got swept all three games twice...........that is some serious winnings.

I use a lot of various factors when choosing the series that I will play.... some of those are as follows:

1) don’t play against a team on a winning streak of 3 or more games.
2) Don't play on a team that is on a losing streak of 3 or more.
3) Look at a teams road performance against opponent @ opponents stadium.........some teams have remarkably good or bad history in certain ballparks...I have found a lot of gems this way.
4) Is weather going to be a factor?? ---Yes, the weather. I don't worry about 1st game weather only subsequent weather days.... because if one game gets cancelled in your series, it may not be made up right away...I don’t worry about game one, because if that game gets cancelled, then I cancel the series play and wait for next.
5) In general, the team I am playing on, must be at least 4-6 in their last 10 games played and be at least a .400 team on the road or at least a .400 team versus opponent.
6) In general, the team I am playing against must be no better than 6-4 in their last 10 games played.
7) The team I am playing on, must have at least a .400 winning % versus the opponent over the last 3 years.
8) As I stated before, these are general guidelines that I use but will very depending on other criteria that may be relevant.


As a favour to all the guys in this forum, I will be posting these series plays every time I am playing one...if you follow my lead, you will make a profit .........again, I am 160-2 over the last 3 years doing this and have gobbled up plenty of profit to show for it!

Make sure that when you bet on these games, that you use a sports book that allows you to play "action goes" this simply means that if the game is played, you have it...a lot of books use starting pitchers only. So if there is a late pitching change, you have a "no action" wager.

NOW GO WIN SOME MONEY!!

fhmesq44 said:

Mofak,

Sorry, one last thing on those numbers, I also had to exclude step 5 due to excel formula limitations.

Regarding the reverse of that system I noted about w/ teams >.530. in 06 it would have been 209-15 with no passes, but 11 of the losses came when a +.530 opponent was scheduled. That reduces the losses to 4, not sure how many wins would be knocked off the 209. Likewise, I also had to exclude step 5 due to the formula limitations.

Click to expand...

Ok, I figured out how to work in rule 5, the record if you didn't pass when an opponent was also <.470 would have been 146-8. 6 of the losses came when an opponent was also <.470, so there are really only 2 losses under your system. Unfortunately determining the number of wins is a TON of work b/c I cannot easily calculate and determine opponents winning %. I will do more back checking.

I saw that posted somewhere else Intrinsik. It seems interesting. What were the results the past few years? Tough part is it takes some handicapping and ideally I would like to go straight mechanical plays.

FHM i sent you an e-mail to your yahoo account

ToddInVegas said:

FHM i sent you an e-mail to your yahoo account

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ok, I will check it out and get back to you. may not be until morning.

fhmesq44 said:

I saw that posted somewhere else Intrinsik. It seems interesting. What were the results the past few years? Tough part is it takes some handicapping and ideally I would like to go straight mechanical plays.

Click to expand...

Well, the guy who wrote that up said he has gone 160-2 over the last three years, but that is unverified, just what he said.

He seems like it could defintely work, which is the main reason I am going to try it out this year. I will be running that system, and also, like you said, a more "mechanical" system, where there isn't any handicapping involved at all. Possibly one of or all of the systems posted in this thread. They seem solid, will be very interesting to see what you come up with for your back checking on them.

Intrinzik said:

Well, the guy who wrote that up said he has gone 160-2 over the last three years, but that is unverified, just what he said.

He seems like it could defintely work, which is the main reason I am going to try it out this year. I will be running that system, and also, like you said, a more "mechanical" system, where there isn't any handicapping involved at all. Possibly one of or all of the systems posted in this thread. They seem solid, will be very interesting to see what you come up with for your back checking on them.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure I buy 160-2 playing a dog chase system, but if so, great to him. I forget where I saw that posted.

I have back checked the two systems I initially outlined and have the numbers in the thread. I will do back checking on mofak's system and advise of the results. Seems like it will work. Also just thought of something else on the drive home that I will research.