As another Baseball season approaches we already have posters asking for ways of beating the book and as usual we are bombarded by hare-brained schemes that would confuse Einstein in his prime. Not only is there a myriad of statistics for the game to suck people in but also the usual propaganda from the books saying one has to know the game and jokers posting how it’s the easiest Sport to bet on only confuse the issue. Baseball betting is no different to any other betting proposition in that one needs to get to the heart of what affects a match and how to transform that into a comparable price. It has to be remembered that the people that has most to lose by ignoring all angles are the Bookmakers, that’s why they pay substantially for premium opinions and therefore can be relied on for doing the donkey work for you. Because of this one can focus on one particular aspect and use the Books odds as a measuring stick.
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As someone who hasn’t a clue about Baseball my observations may annoy the hard-core bettors that rely on things like ERA and WHIP numbers. To me the biggest fallacy is the importance put on Pitchers, its one of those situations where because one has been brought up with that view that it goes unquestioned but as far as I can see, batters still have to score runs to win and that happens more in the innings where the starting Pitcher is in the shower. How anyone can place a bet quoting the Pitcher as the difference is beyond me, especially as depending on the schedule and pressure of nagging injuries, a Coach will play out a loss not only without trying but with the Fans backing, certainly here one has to make a definite split as to what is good for the Team long term and a betting proposition. Talk of Bullpens, closing pitchers, pinch hitters, rotation all goes out the window betting wise in a long season when all the punter wants is the batter to hit the ball.
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The bettors ploy is further exasperated in the knowledge (at least one should be aware of) that mathematically only ¾ of a run is the difference in most games and when all these considerations are put in place and cold calculated reasoning used, its obvious this game is a complete guess. Because of this firstly its critical to realise the importance of beating the Books percentage (vig) in the long haul, minus vig will eat into any method regardless of success, secondly one needs to find a strong situation that beats the Books initial pricing. After looking at the game from a layman/bettor perspective I have come to the conclusion that the best option is in the Home run stats as that one Home Run many times is the difference in the match and doesn’t give the Punter the heartache of changed pitchers etc. Of course just looking up who has the best Home run stats isn’t the answer as the books price may well have incorporated these, so a good understanding of bookmaking is needed.
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Obviously I cannot tell you how to equate the findings into a price as this is a hard earned trick that took years of bookmaking to suss out and telling the world would be folly but basically your ultimate betting price must be achieved by incorporating the Books vig of 10%, a negation of Home/Away advantage and a Half run in odds to your favour. This may appear to ask a lot but its only when these things happen that you have the Books at your mercy long term, any deviation from this is leading down a no-hope alley. The figures I use in these cases are –0.05 for the Home Team and –0.20 for the road Team, half point is –0.25, so with the vig figure of –0.10, that means the final price should read
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Home Team –0.40
Road Team –0.55
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Once you have equated your price from your own main reasoning tool and add the above, the selection becomes a bet if your Bookmaker is offering a better price, surprisingly more often than you think. I don’t know Baseball enough to comment on value of the said price as to staking, whether going down the road of run-lines when it’s a minus figure or playing Totals on the back of stats is advisable but I will post my Totals theory later. :drink:
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<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>As someone who hasn’t a clue about Baseball my observations may annoy the hard-core bettors that rely on things like ERA and WHIP numbers. To me the biggest fallacy is the importance put on Pitchers, its one of those situations where because one has been brought up with that view that it goes unquestioned but as far as I can see, batters still have to score runs to win and that happens more in the innings where the starting Pitcher is in the shower. How anyone can place a bet quoting the Pitcher as the difference is beyond me, especially as depending on the schedule and pressure of nagging injuries, a Coach will play out a loss not only without trying but with the Fans backing, certainly here one has to make a definite split as to what is good for the Team long term and a betting proposition. Talk of Bullpens, closing pitchers, pinch hitters, rotation all goes out the window betting wise in a long season when all the punter wants is the batter to hit the ball.
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>The bettors ploy is further exasperated in the knowledge (at least one should be aware of) that mathematically only ¾ of a run is the difference in most games and when all these considerations are put in place and cold calculated reasoning used, its obvious this game is a complete guess. Because of this firstly its critical to realise the importance of beating the Books percentage (vig) in the long haul, minus vig will eat into any method regardless of success, secondly one needs to find a strong situation that beats the Books initial pricing. After looking at the game from a layman/bettor perspective I have come to the conclusion that the best option is in the Home run stats as that one Home Run many times is the difference in the match and doesn’t give the Punter the heartache of changed pitchers etc. Of course just looking up who has the best Home run stats isn’t the answer as the books price may well have incorporated these, so a good understanding of bookmaking is needed.
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>Obviously I cannot tell you how to equate the findings into a price as this is a hard earned trick that took years of bookmaking to suss out and telling the world would be folly but basically your ultimate betting price must be achieved by incorporating the Books vig of 10%, a negation of Home/Away advantage and a Half run in odds to your favour. This may appear to ask a lot but its only when these things happen that you have the Books at your mercy long term, any deviation from this is leading down a no-hope alley. The figures I use in these cases are –0.05 for the Home Team and –0.20 for the road Team, half point is –0.25, so with the vig figure of –0.10, that means the final price should read
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></o>Home Team –0.40
Road Team –0.55
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>Once you have equated your price from your own main reasoning tool and add the above, the selection becomes a bet if your Bookmaker is offering a better price, surprisingly more often than you think. I don’t know Baseball enough to comment on value of the said price as to staking, whether going down the road of run-lines when it’s a minus figure or playing Totals on the back of stats is advisable but I will post my Totals theory later. :drink:
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