Tennis Miami - Leviathan

Leviathan · Mar 20, 2007

Hi, I'am new at the forum but I have been betting for some time. I have been reading this forum a longer time and really like it because here is so many opinions. Tennis is maby my best sport so here comes my tips. I'am trying to find value. Feel free to comment.

Qualifying men:

G.Canas - T.Alves -745 10/10
Yeah, this is small odd but Canas has been in great form recently and his opponent is brasilian and Canas said after he came back he'll never lose against brasilian. So far he is 14-0 against em after his return. Also head to head is for Canas 2-0.

P.Capdeville - K.Kim -156 6/10
Kim played yesterday a good match against waske and won. Waske has played all year not so good and Kim has some good results from this tournament but Kim is this year at major evens 2-13 at challengers 6-8 and Capdeville is maby a little weak mover but his serves are good. Only good thing for Kim is home advantage.

K.Karlovic - F.Dancevic +119 4/10
Karlovic hurted himself again last week against Monfils after winning the first set at tiebreak. So far his condition is a little riddle because he played against Zverev who retired at first set, Karlovic was leading 5-1. Dancevic played very good match at Indian Wells against Gonzalez and this is pretty even match for me. I would bet with bigger amount but I think Dancevic is mentally weak and not good in tiebreaks.

Leviathan · Mar 20, 2007

Yesterday Canas won but Capdeville and Dancevic lost.

First round men wednesday:
R.Ginepri - V.Spadea +130 10/10
T.Johansson - A.Martin -475 8/10
R.Ramirez Hidalgo - G.Gaudio -138 8/10
S.Roitman - P.Kohlschreiber +380 1/10
A.Kuznetsov - P Starace +121 4/10
D. Udomchoke - S.Greul -145 7/10

Leviathan · Mar 20, 2007

Adding:

J.M. Del Potro - J.Bjorkman -200 7/10

Hope1 · Mar 20, 2007

gl with your plays, welcome to the Rx and thks for sharing

:toast:

where abouts are you in Europe?..........clay court season around the corner.

Leviathan · Mar 20, 2007

Thanks, I live in cold north and they play no major events here, anyway it is not so cold anymore...yeah, clay court season is coming and the nearest tournament for me would in Sweden Bastad. Have not been there but I was in Stockholm last year at autumn at indoor hardcourt tournament.

They are not playing very much in Canada either? Rogers Masters in Montreal at least :103631605

Leviathan · Mar 21, 2007

...by the way I was looking games for women matches and does a name Aleksandra Wozniak say anything for you? She is canadian young player. I thought she might have some possibilities against Morigami with good odd but she has lost all her four games against japanese opponents so far.

Hope1 · Mar 21, 2007

Yes, we have a TMS event here in Canada :103631605

. I live in Ontario and go to The Rexall Centre every yr, this yr the ladies visit.

Aleksandra is a fairly good player, ranked just outside the top 100. She has beatin' quality in the past--Poutchkova, Azarenka, N Li. She's certainly capable of beating Morigami on her day. No idea regarding her form at the moment tho.

women's lines still not all up with the books i use, amazing.

the courts are purple at Miami this yr, good grief.

Leviathan · Mar 21, 2007

Puple...an universal colour, I hope they won't chance the colour for yellow, that would be something. I have in my notes the court is slow paced hardcourt with high bounce and good for both, baseliners and serve volleyers.

Apperently from my earlier picks Johansson and Del Potro are the only ones playing today and rest are tomorrow. Here is some plays for today.

Men:
G.Kuerten - R.Sluiter -166 6/10
J.Hajek - T.Gabashvili -365 8/10

Women:
T.Pironkova - K.Kanepi -129 4/10
S.Peng - E.Vesnina -175 7/10
A.Morigami - A.Wozniak +202 2/10
In this my opinion is that Morigami is in better shape but Wozniak has more potential, too big odd for Wozniak.
M.Tu - R.Oprandi -145 6/10
F.Pennetta - V.Razzano +146 2/10

eSTOXX · Mar 21, 2007

my earlier picks:
1. Paradorn Srichaphan (THA) [Games HC] 0:3 @1.85 7/10 (gamebookers)
2. Gustavo Kuerten (BRA) [Games HC] 0:3 @1.85 5/10 (gamebookers)
3. Gustavo Kuerten (BRA) @ 2.51 3/10 (10bet)

joker25 · Mar 21, 2007

Gl !!

Leviathan · Mar 21, 2007

Not a bad day for a wednesday. I will update the record after tomorrow when they have played the first round.

Men first round:

T.Henman - G.Canas -242 10/10
Head to head is 5-1 for Canas and for me it seems that Canas is inform and Henman is outform.
K.Kim - B.Becker +186 4/10
If somebody would have said a few weeks ago that I would bet Kim over Becker with that odd I would have laughed but here we are. Kim played greatly in qualifications and seems like Becker has not everything right just a moment. Very bad results from him.
A.Delic - J.Benneteau -210 5/10
2004 Benneteau went here to the fourth round and now he has been in great form and he is clearly better compared to Delic. Delic's two matches from qualifiqations so not so big stake.
A.Montanes - A.Clement +465 1/10
Too big odds ti ignore at this court.
J.Tipsarevic - A.Seppi -104 4/10
Tipsarevic has been in good form lately but I think this court suits much more for Seppi who has already two wins.

Leviathan · Mar 22, 2007

Women first round:
E.Loit - S.Bammer +265 2/10
K.Bondarenko - A.Nakamura -128 4/10

Leviathan · Mar 22, 2007

Men and second round, apparently playing at friday:

L.Hewitt - R.Sluiter +465 2/10
This has not been the Hewitt we once knew and he had back problems in his last match against Tipsarevic.

D.Ferrer - J.Monaco +249 4/10
Monaco has beaten Ferrer twice on clay 2004 and 2005. The court is better for Ferrer but this odd is way too much.

S.Bolelli - D.Tursunov +203 2/10
Tursunov does not like slow surfaces.

G.Simon - L.Horna +150 3/10

Leviathan · Mar 22, 2007

It seems rainy, rainy day. Hopefully they can complete some matches today. Completed bets so far:

G.Canas - T.Alves -745 10/10 WON +1,34
P.Capdeville - K.Kim -156 6/10 LOST -6,00
K.Karlovic - F.Dancevic +119 4/10 LOST -4,00
T.Johansson - A.Martin -475 8/10 WON +1,68
J.M. Del Potro - J.Bjorkman -200 7/10 WON +3,5
G.Kuerten - R.Sluiter -166 6/10 WON +3,61
J.Hajek - T.Gabashvili -365 8/10 WON +2,19
S.Peng - E.Vesnina -175 7/10 WON +3,99
A.Morigami - A.Wozniak +202 2/10 LOST -2,00
M.Tu - R.Oprandi -145 6/10 WIN +4,13
F.Pennetta - V.Razzano +146 2/10 WON +2,92

8-3-0
Risked 66 units
+11,36 units

Leviathan · Mar 22, 2007

R.Ginepri - V.Spadea +130 10/10 WON +13,00
A.Kuznetsov - P Starace +121 4/10 LOST -4,00
D. Udomchoke - S.Greul -145 7/10 LOST -7,00
T.Pironkova - K.Kanepi -129 4/10 LOST -4,00
T.Henman - G.Canas -242 10/10 WON +4,13
K.Kim - B.Becker +186 4/10 WON +7,44
A.Delic - J.Benneteau -210 5/10 LOST -5,00
E.Loit - S.Bammer +265 2/10 WON +5,30
K.Bondarenko - A.Nakamura -128 4/10 WON +3,12

record:

13-6-0
risked 116 units
+24,35
1 unit flat betting +4,42

Leviathan · Mar 23, 2007

Few more games for friday, mostly surprises and one big bet:

P.Goldstein - A.Murray +640 1/10
Small stake for Goldstein because Murray had problems last week with his leg. I know you should not bet because of a one reason but in this match it is almost all. Goldstein usually starts his matches well.

M.V.Arguello - A.Roddick +1800 1/10
Hunting a big surprise. After Jimmy Connors started to coach Roddick his game looked better compared to earlier but now for me his game has gone worse. Arguello seems to be a little bit underrated but Roddick is pretty much his big serves and his big heart when everything is going ok and if Arguello can steal one game per set he has a small chance to win.

F.Lopez - M.Safin +180 5/10
Safin is very unpredictable player and I think this surface suits for him compared to Lopez but head to head between these players is 3-1 for Lopez, sets 7-2 but all at faster tournaments.

N.Li - T.Paszek +199 4/10
Again we have one teenager and I admit she is a little mystery for me and because of that medium stakes but all I have heard about Paszek is positive and for me this game is pretty even.

E.Bychkova - S.Bremond -134 10/10
Very bad results from Bremond this year. Bychkova trough qualies but not against good opponents. They have met last year at challenger final on clay at Marseille which Byckhova won 6-1, 6-2.

GL.

joker25 · Mar 23, 2007

Some nice results Lev. Too bad Danai couldn't hold after first set.

I see you are into tough games today, i am with Safin though because i dont believe in Lopez's abilities :missingte .

Gl.....

Leviathan · Mar 23, 2007

Danai might have some problems and not the first time for him to choke but biggest upset for me was Delic over Benneteau. Delic was breaking Benneteau like nothing.

My bookie released some matches for saturday:

P.Starace - N.Almagro +187 3/10
There is a huge difference when Almagro is playing on clay and when Almagro is playing on hard even if it is a slow one. Almagro favourite but not so big imo.

F.Verdasco - F.Mayer +107 3/10
I have favoured Mayer clearly but he had some sort of injury last week, should be ok now and Verdasco played pretty well against Nadal so I'am lowering stake.

E.Korolev - J.Nieminen +109 2/10
Nieminen had big expections for this season but was ill at the start of the season and has not found his rhythm. There has been marks of better. Set from Gasquet and set from Youzhny. He is playing without a coach and I don't know how he can handle his bad start with himself. Until he shows some good performance I will play against him. Nieminen is better returner than server so this court should suit for him and offers a good chance to take some wins.

Hope1 · Mar 23, 2007

good luck today, and very nice capping.

:toast:

Leviathan · Mar 23, 2007

Bad start for a day, seven games, 5 lost and 2 voided. Now looking little better after Bychova and Bolelli won. I will give one unit for our teenager:

D.Hantuchova - M.L.De Brito +1700