About 3 weeks ago I posted an oppurtunity with a local who has hockey lines at -1.5 -110 and +1 -110. Some are -2.5/+2, etc... Basically all lines are half goal different and juice is -110 on every game.
I have used Pinny and 5Dimes to compare the true line with his all -110 numbers. I started ahead right away. He only takes $300 a game so I have spread bet sizes depending on the edge from $100-300.
Also have did totals with him but if you push you lose so I have bet only totals with hooks on them. Such as under 5.5 -130 at Pinny.
Some of these bets after you combine the favorite price to the dog price should be -140+(true line) and you pay -110. Example Edmonton -1.5 +130 and St.Louis +1 -150 at 5 Dimes. Which I end up betting St.Louis +1 -1. I am getting over half the games a nite with this guy. Almost every -2.5/+2 I end with a huge edge betting +2 -110 as the true line is +170 or so.
First 100 bets I went 55-45 (that is not counting the pushes and there are alot of them but you dont lose on side pushes just totals). Anyways I am down a little after most or all of the favs won and covered. Obviously I am betting dogs 95% of the time.
Just goes to show you that you never know. I keep thinking I am missing something and if I am please feel free to bring it up to me as this local I have has alot of UGLY rules set up in his favor (i.e hockey total pushes are losses for the bettor, WTF).
Going to stay the course but just wondering what others think or if there has been an inordiante amount of favs covering the past month. Maybe bad karma from the gambling gods for this but believeve me this guy has a ton of screwy rules in his favor, like when you bet a dog in HOOPS you lose the hook so if the line is -6.5 you get -6.5 or +6. Maybe my edge is not is big as I think but I am sure I am figuring this out right as I am geting true lines that are -150 (60% win rate) for -110.
Willing to hold on win or lose to the end but a little surprised that after 200 bets I am down as I have been smart and disciplined every nite with these.
I have used Pinny and 5Dimes to compare the true line with his all -110 numbers. I started ahead right away. He only takes $300 a game so I have spread bet sizes depending on the edge from $100-300.
Also have did totals with him but if you push you lose so I have bet only totals with hooks on them. Such as under 5.5 -130 at Pinny.
Some of these bets after you combine the favorite price to the dog price should be -140+(true line) and you pay -110. Example Edmonton -1.5 +130 and St.Louis +1 -150 at 5 Dimes. Which I end up betting St.Louis +1 -1. I am getting over half the games a nite with this guy. Almost every -2.5/+2 I end with a huge edge betting +2 -110 as the true line is +170 or so.
First 100 bets I went 55-45 (that is not counting the pushes and there are alot of them but you dont lose on side pushes just totals). Anyways I am down a little after most or all of the favs won and covered. Obviously I am betting dogs 95% of the time.
Just goes to show you that you never know. I keep thinking I am missing something and if I am please feel free to bring it up to me as this local I have has alot of UGLY rules set up in his favor (i.e hockey total pushes are losses for the bettor, WTF).
Going to stay the course but just wondering what others think or if there has been an inordiante amount of favs covering the past month. Maybe bad karma from the gambling gods for this but believeve me this guy has a ton of screwy rules in his favor, like when you bet a dog in HOOPS you lose the hook so if the line is -6.5 you get -6.5 or +6. Maybe my edge is not is big as I think but I am sure I am figuring this out right as I am geting true lines that are -150 (60% win rate) for -110.
Willing to hold on win or lose to the end but a little surprised that after 200 bets I am down as I have been smart and disciplined every nite with these.