I am actually down a little with my betting hockey w/dumb local

Iceman · Mar 22, 2007

About 3 weeks ago I posted an oppurtunity with a local who has hockey lines at -1.5 -110 and +1 -110. Some are -2.5/+2, etc... Basically all lines are half goal different and juice is -110 on every game.

I have used Pinny and 5Dimes to compare the true line with his all -110 numbers. I started ahead right away. He only takes $300 a game so I have spread bet sizes depending on the edge from $100-300.

Also have did totals with him but if you push you lose so I have bet only totals with hooks on them. Such as under 5.5 -130 at Pinny.

Some of these bets after you combine the favorite price to the dog price should be -140+(true line) and you pay -110. Example Edmonton -1.5 +130 and St.Louis +1 -150 at 5 Dimes. Which I end up betting St.Louis +1 -1. I am getting over half the games a nite with this guy. Almost every -2.5/+2 I end with a huge edge betting +2 -110 as the true line is +170 or so.

First 100 bets I went 55-45 (that is not counting the pushes and there are alot of them but you dont lose on side pushes just totals). Anyways I am down a little after most or all of the favs won and covered. Obviously I am betting dogs 95% of the time.

Just goes to show you that you never know. I keep thinking I am missing something and if I am please feel free to bring it up to me as this local I have has alot of UGLY rules set up in his favor (i.e hockey total pushes are losses for the bettor, WTF).

Going to stay the course but just wondering what others think or if there has been an inordiante amount of favs covering the past month. Maybe bad karma from the gambling gods for this but believeve me this guy has a ton of screwy rules in his favor, like when you bet a dog in HOOPS you lose the hook so if the line is -6.5 you get -6.5 or +6. Maybe my edge is not is big as I think but I am sure I am figuring this out right as I am geting true lines that are -150 (60% win rate) for -110.

Willing to hold on win or lose to the end but a little surprised that after 200 bets I am down as I have been smart and disciplined every nite with these.

phdinsports · Mar 22, 2007

yes!!!! the favs are coming in big time!!!! I only bet dogs, and I've lost 10 STRAIGHT games!!!! That's why your down a little. Favs covered last 14 straight games, not good for a dog player. I've lost last 6 in OT and shootouts!! Hopefully we'll get a few bounces are way playing dogs, or else I'm going to hang up the skates and quit while I"m ahead. Best of luck the rest of the way!!!

Iceman · Mar 22, 2007

phdinsports said:
yes!!!! the favs are coming in big time!!!! I only bet dogs, and I've lost 10 STRAIGHT games!!!! That's why your down a little. Favs covered last 14 straight games, not good for a dog player. I've lost last 6 in OT and shootouts!! Hopefully we'll get a few bounces are way playing dogs, or else I'm going to hang up the skates and quit while I"m ahead. Best of luck the rest of the way!!!

Wow, I knew it was alot. 14 straight? Well that explains it. I am in it for the long haul. The edge is too big not for me. It will come back!!!

phdinsports · Mar 22, 2007

phdinsports said:
Favs covered last 14 straight games, not good for a dog player. !!!

My bad Ice, It's actually 16 straight, I was only looking at the past two days!! Both Favs covered on monday.

Doug · Mar 22, 2007

I thought you were getting +100 ?

long-term you have to beat him with this deal.

royalfan · Mar 22, 2007

you would have to post his lines on a given day for me determine if you are doing it correctly, which I am guessing you are, but you would be up more, so there is an outside shot you are fucking something up.

Doug · Mar 22, 2007

Before you said it was +100, now -110 ? Did he change it ? I'm sure you are doing right, Ice ! It's just a bad run.

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Need Hockey betting help vs a local- Opinions needed
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>I have a local who says if you take favorite it is ALWAYS -1.5 goals at -100/+100 for the bet and if you take dog it is always +1 goal -100/+100.

So for tonite he has NY Rangers -1.5 -100/+100
and
NY Islanders +1 -100/+100

Can I swing the odds in my favor for this too work? How much is a half a goal worth on average I guess would be the 1st question.

I would assume in this 1st example of tonites game that NY Islanders +1 -100 is a great bet as they are +104 on the money line. So I would say small money line dogs getting a goal and being -100 are +ev bets.

Am I on to something betting this or will the odds always be in his fair? It seems this could be very beneficial. What am I missing here?
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royalfan · Mar 22, 2007

Doug said:
Before you said it was +100, now -110 ? Did he change it ? I'm sure you are doing right, Ice ! It's just a bad run.

<TABLE class=tborder id=post3895184 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid">03-05-2007, 07:17 PM </TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid" align=right>#1 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 0px solid" width=175>Iceman<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_3895184", true); </SCRIPT>
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Need Hockey betting help vs a local- Opinions needed
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>I have a local who says if you take favorite it is ALWAYS -1.5 goals at -100/+100 for the bet and if you take dog it is always +1 goal -100/+100.

So for tonite he has NY Rangers -1.5 -100/+100
and
NY Islanders +1 -100/+100

Can I swing the odds in my favor for this too work? How much is a half a goal worth on average I guess would be the 1st question.

I would assume in this 1st example of tonites game that NY Islanders +1 -100 is a great bet as they are +104 on the money line. So I would say small money line dogs getting a goal and being -100 are +ev bets.

Am I on to something betting this or will the odds always be in his fair? It seems this could be very beneficial. What am I missing here?

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Greath catch doug, something seems odd.

Doug · Mar 22, 2007

This is what I'd play at +1 -110:

SJ,Mont,NJ,Pitts,.... Nash barely makes it

I assume if they lose by one goal, you receive a push, and OT counts. I'd play the limit, even on Nash, no need to size bets, just bet limit because I know his bank can take a $300 bet with these overlays.

royalfan · Mar 22, 2007

I cannot imagine a local being dumb enough to really offer a game like the Penguins getting a goal at even money. This just is simply not happening.

WVU · Mar 22, 2007

Doug said:
This is what I'd play at +1 -110:

SJ,Mont,NJ,Pitts,.... Nash barely makes it

I assume if they lose by one goal, you receive a push, and OT counts. I'd play the limit, even on Nash, no need to size bets, just bet limit because I know his bank can take a $300 bet with these overlays.

It's good to have you back Doug. We missed you man.:Sad Face:

Journeyman · Mar 22, 2007

Well to his credit he said he's losing so it's not like he's making it up.

Doug · Mar 22, 2007

I'd take Columbus if its +2 -110, also.

MattRain · Mar 22, 2007

This thing encourages bets on the dogs 90% of the time. Favorites will most likely win until the end of the season. The bookie might not be that dumb.

This offer would be a goldmine during early and mid-season though.

Doug · Mar 22, 2007

Journeyman said:
Well to his credit he said he's losing so it's not like he's making it up.

The lines are hugely scalpable, losing can't continue. You can easily bet 5% of BR on these, or $300, whichever is less.

Doug · Mar 22, 2007

Matt Rain said:
This thing encourages bets on the dogs 90% of the time. Favorites will most likely win until the end of the season. The bookie might not be that dumb.

This offer would be a goldmine during early and mid-season though.

lines can't be that far off, remember you should push quite a few bets.

Journeyman · Mar 22, 2007

Doug said:
The lines are hugely scalpable, losing can't continue. You can easily bet 5% of BR on these, or $300, whichever is less.

okay I understand now...I didn't realize what was at stake til I reread it.

I've noticed one thing about Ice Man, he desn't go for the kill, very conservative approach, maybe he's not taking full advantage, I'm sure he'll explain it more when he gets back.

royalfan · Mar 22, 2007

The line is probably 1/2-pick on pitt game. No way a book is giving pitt a goal at even money. Or now, -110, the story seems to change.

royalfan · Mar 22, 2007

on on the very slim chance I am wrong and games like pitt are offered at that, then Iceman is not smart at all if he is not maxing every one of them, like Doug says.

SSI · Mar 22, 2007

Ice, as you may or may not know.......... i have done alot of work with a ML dog system for professional sports (all 4 of them).........

really good results in baseball, basketball and i think the nfl would do ok..... but the results for the nhl are down for the year......

i do not think this has been a dog year for the nhl.......