What are your predicted lines for the MLB opening game?

JakeT. · Mar 26, 2007

Mets (Glavine) @ Cardinals (Carpenter)

Glavine and Carpenter both pitching very well during the spring.

Glavine had a great home start against Cards last year but got hit hard once and hit for a few runs once on the road against StL.

Carpenter pitched twice in NY and pitched very well once and gave up some runs once. No home starts against the Mets.

Bullpen edge to the Mets although the Cardinals have a good one as well and Izzy is healthy.

Cards hit .273 at home last year.
Mets hit .272 on the road last year.

Mets hit .268 versus righties last year.
Cards hit .264 versus lefties last year.

JakeT. · Mar 26, 2007

I say the line will come out at:

StL -130, U8.5 -115

Journeyman · Mar 26, 2007

jakethompson said:
I say the line will come out at:

StL -130, U8.5 -115

I would think higher than -130, more like -150

JakeT. · Mar 26, 2007

Journeyman said:
Wait you have the game listed @ St Louis.

That's what Yahoo is showing. Is it not in StL?

Journeyman · Mar 26, 2007

I misunderstood Jake...I thought you were saying it was in NY but listed at STL....my mistake.

CapNWatch · Mar 26, 2007

Cardinals -160....as the predicted line.

JakeT. · Mar 26, 2007

Journeyman said:
I misunderstood Jake...I thought you were saying it was in NY but listed at STL....my mistake.

Ahh k. You really think it will be at -150? I thought about -135 for a second but just couldn't make it that high considering how well Glavine has pitched and the bullpen the Mets are bringin to town. They put up some offense on the road usually.

CapNWatch · Mar 26, 2007

I think at least -145

CapNWatch · Mar 26, 2007

What is so good about the Mets bullpen? Not impressed really if you ask me.

JakeT. · Mar 26, 2007

CapNWatch said:
What is so good about the Mets bullpen? Not impressed really if you ask me.

Lowest ERA in the league in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.

Wagner had a 2.24 ERA last year with 40 saves.

Sanchez, his setup guy, had a 2.60 ERA.

Mota was unhittable in the 18 innings for the Mets last year.

Even Heilman pitched great when called upon.

Very deep and very good.

mike0187 · Mar 26, 2007

I can roll with -130

CapNWatch · Mar 26, 2007

jakethompson said:
Lowest ERA in the league in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.

Wagner had a 2.24 ERA last year with 40 saves.

Sanchez, his setup guy, had a 2.60 ERA.

Mota was unhittable in the 18 innings for the Mets last year.

Even Heilman pitched great when called upon.

Very deep and very good.

Wagner has struggled. Sanchez will be lucky to pitch by All-Star break. Mota is suspended for 50 games! Heilman is unhappy with his role. Hell right now I think the surest thing is Feliciano.

JakeT. · Mar 26, 2007

CapNWatch said:
Wagner has struggled. Sanchez will be lucky to pitch by All-Star break. Mota is suspended for 50 games! Heilman is unhappy with his role. Hell right now I think the surest thing is Feliciano.

Nothing I've heard has Sanchez out even close to that long. He'll be on the DL to start off but I heard the MRI he just had didn't show anything serious.

Wagner has only struggled so far because he is working on a new splitter that isn't going so well. There are alot of veterans that just kinda mess around with new pitches in the spring and that's what Wagner is doin. No cause for concern there.

Feliciano had a 2.09 ERA last year as well. Still not sure if he's ready for the primary setup role yet. Is Heilman getting the gig for now?

JakeT. · Mar 26, 2007

Damn, news report on Sanchez just got posted that he's gonna get a 2nd surgery now.

CapNWatch · Mar 26, 2007

Like I said, right now Feliciano is there best bet. Heilman wants to be a starter and is being treated like crap. Sanchez/Mota no factors and Wagner is getting old.

BTW Sanchez could be out whole season.
from rotoworld dot com
Duaner Sanchez is headed for a second surgery on his surgically repaired right shoulder, a source told the New York Daily News.

It's still unknown what the actual problem with the shoulder is. Sanchez had a setback last week as he continued his rehab from a separated right shoulder

JakeT. · Mar 28, 2007

Still no lines up that I can see.

buffettgambler · Mar 28, 2007

Not that this game should be scrutinized more than any other game this season, but my valuation model shows an intrinsic value of the
Cards -130/Mets +130 (assuming Edmonds plays). I am willing to bet on the Mets at any price greater than +142, and willing to bet on the Cards at any price less than -120.

My guess is that the overvaluation of Carpenter will be somewhat offset by the public flocking to the Mets, which will allow a somewhat efficient pricing in the -135/+127 range. I don't expect much value on any side in this game, but time will tell.

JakeT. · Mar 28, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Not that this game should be scrutinized more than any other game this season, but my valuation model shows an intrinsic value of the
Cards -130/Mets +130 (assuming Edmonds plays). I am willing to bet on the Mets at any price greater than +142, and willing to bet on the Cards at any price less than -120.

My guess is that the overvaluation of Carpenter will be somewhat offset by the public flocking to the Mets, which will allow a somewhat efficient pricing in the -135/+127 range. I don't expect much value on any side in this game, but time will tell.

Agree with you there. Unless the Cards are as high as some in this thread predicted, I will either lay off or force a small play just to have some action on the first game of the year. $5 bet, here I come.

mike0187 · Mar 28, 2007

Carpenter (somehow) didn't pitch against the Mets last year, at least according to Yahoo and ESPN

in '05 it has him as throwing a 7 inning shutout against the Mets

if the Mets are +125ish I'll take them, the Cards were below average hitters against Lefties last year, and Carpenters stats MAY be slightly inflated because he pitched 4 times against the Pirates (with a .90 ERA) and none against the Mets

I also have Glavine as getting a win AT St. Louis last year in his only start vs the Cards....

where are you getting your stats from your first post Jake?

EveryGamblersDream · Mar 28, 2007

Prediction Pin OL: St. Louis -147 8.5u20

What are your predicted lines for the MLB opening game?

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