FHMESQ April System Thread

Ok, I had Chinese last night and my fortune cookie was "Others are waiting on your for clues", so I figure today is as good a day as any to fully outline the systems for this season.

There are a number of systems and will be a TON of plays. So you may not want to play all of the systems. However, to assure the results, you would want to play ALL of the plays in the particular systems you choose. These are ALL martingale systems. There are many that do not think Martingale systems are worth betting. While I respect that opinion, I have been in plenty of discussions on it and would appreciate that they be taken somewhere else as I am not interested in discussing it again at this time.

These systems are not for everyone as they do involve chasing and thus you will have to risk 20-30 units on some plays. Take this into account when you determine your unit size. Figure the maximum you would ever want to place on a game and divide that sum by 35. This should keep you around the maximum you would ever want to play for plays that go out to the final play. However, there is no guarantee that you won't have to risk more. From my research, however, almost every play has stayed under 35 units risked. As I said, these systems are not for everyone.

I have researched these and many other systems at great lengths as far back as 2000 and these are the systems that I found have both good historical results and a "reasonable" level of risk given the Martingale aspect. Obviously there is no guarantee of success. As you will see below, while all of these systems are net + over the years I have researched, they haven't won each year.

I will post the plays daily and try my best to get them up early the day before so you can take advantage of overnight lines, namely, 5dimes overnight .05 baseball lines. I will also update daily the total W/L and units W/L but will only post detailed records weekly. I really burned out posting daily detailed records in NHL, so I am hoping this resolves that.

On to the systems: The goal with all of these is to win 1 unit on each chase series.

3 Straight: - These are all 4 game chases.

- Chase all Home Favorites (-110 or higher) with winning percentages of greater than .450 who have lost 3 or more straight games.

- Fade chase all Home Dogs (+100 or higher) with winning percentages of less than .550 who have won 3 or more straight games.

- Fade chase all Road Dogs (+100 or higher) who have won 3 or more straight games.

The combined results for these 3 systems are:

06 +64
05 +92
04 -100 (from my review, a complete anomaly, don't really know what happened)
03 +74
02 +137
01 +82
00 +111

For an average of +76 units/year and usually has about 8-11 losses per year.

4D System: This is also a 4 game chase system.

- Chase all Home Favorites of -130 or higher who have lost their last two games as Home Favorites of -130 or higher. In this system the ONLY games you are concerned with are when a team is a HF of -130 or higher. The two games do not have to be consecutive and neither do the chase games.

- Fade chase all Road Dogs of +110 or higher who have won their last two games as Road Dogs of +110 or more. In this system the ONLY games you are concerned with are when a team is a RD of +110 or higher. The two games do not have to be consecutive and neither do the chase games.

The combined results for those two series from 06-01 are (06 on top):

101
133
224
270
-11
245

For an average of +160 and averages about 7 losses per year.

Mofak System: This is also a 4 game chase system

- fade chase any team who wins a game by 5 or more runs if they have a winning percentage of .470 or lower provided they are scheduled to play at least 1 game on the road and DO NOT play another team with a winning percentage of .470 or lower. You wait two games to start the fade (so, if a team wins by 5 on Monday, you would start on Thursday assuming they play Tues and Weds) and if the team you are fading wins a game by 5 during the waiting or play period, you wait another two days to play them again and pick up where you left off.

- chase any team who loses a game by 5 or more runs if they have a winning percentage of .540 or higher provided they are scheduled to play at least 1 game at home and DO NOT play another team with a winning percentage of .540 or higher. You wait two games to start the play and if the team you are playing loses a game by 5 during the waiting or play period, you wait another two days to play them again and pick up where you left off.

Unfortunately I wasn't able to get exact records for this system b/c my spreadsheets aren't able to determine opponents winning percentage. However, the losses are as follows for each:

<.470 - 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 2
>.540 - 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1

O/U Systems: These are either 4 or 5 game chases as outlined below

- When a team goes over twice in a row with a total line of 8 or less, play a 4 game chase on the under the next time(s) they have a line of 8 or less. Like the 4D chase, the only games you are concerned with are when the line is 8 or less.

- When a team goes UNDER twice in a row with a total line of 9, chase them on the OVER the next time(s) they have a line of 9. Again, the only games you are concerned with are when their total is exactly 9. A 4 game chase is more conservative on this, but a 5 game chase could also work (but has had more volatile results in the past, see below).

- When a team goes over twice in a row with a total line of 9.5, play a 5 game chase on the under the next time(s) they have a line of exactly 9.5. Like the 4D chase, the only games you are concerned with are when the line is exactly 9.5.

The results for these systems are below. The first column is the number of wins, the next 4 or 5 columns are the number of losses (there are 5 columns because there are some series that don't finish by the end of the season and would thus lose say only the 1st game) and the last $$ column is the net win or loss.

When a team goes over twice in a row with a o/u of 8 or under, chase the under for 4 games:

<table style="width: 463pt; border-collapse: collapse;" x:str="" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="617"> <colgroup> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="6" width="64"> <col style="width: 57pt;" span="2" width="76"> <col style="width: 61pt;" width="81"> </colgroup><tbody> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 48pt; height: 10.5pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" height="14" width="64"> <table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 463pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="617"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="6" width="64"> <col style="width: 57pt;" span="2" width="76"> <col style="width: 61pt;" width="81"> <tbody><tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt; width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14" width="64">86</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">0</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">0</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">0</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 57pt;" x:num="8600" x:fmla="=A1*100" align="right" width="76">$8,600.00 </td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 57pt;" x:num="5534.43" x:fmla="=(B1*110)+(C1*341)+(D1*826.1)+(1844.81*E1)+(3984.1*F1)" align="right" width="76">$5,534.43 </td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 61pt;" x:num="3065.57" x:fmla="=G1-H1" align="right" width="81">$3,065.57 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">142</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">6</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="14200" x:fmla="=A2*100" align="right">$14,200.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="11178.86" x:fmla="=(B2*110)+(C2*341)+(D2*826.1)+(1844.81*E2)+(3984.1*F2)" align="right">$11,178.86 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="3021.14" x:fmla="=G2-H2" align="right">$3,021.14 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">108</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10800" x:fmla="=A3*100" align="right">$10,800.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10721.15" x:fmla="=(B3*110)+(C3*341)+(D3*826.1)+(1844.81*E3)+(3984.1*F3)" align="right">$10,721.15 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="78.850000000000364" x:fmla="=G3-H3" align="right">$78.85 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">141</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="14100" x:fmla="=A4*100" align="right">$14,100.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="7406.63" x:fmla="=(B4*110)+(C4*341)+(D4*826.1)+(1844.81*E4)+(3984.1*F4)" align="right">$7,406.63 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="6693.37" x:fmla="=G4-H4" align="right">$6,693.37 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">126</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="12600" x:fmla="=A5*100" align="right">$12,600.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10391.15" x:fmla="=(B5*110)+(C5*341)+(D5*826.1)+(1844.81*E5)+(3984.1*F5)" align="right">$10,391.15 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="2208.85" x:fmla="=G5-H5" align="right">$2,208.85 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">44</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">7</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">4</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl26" x:num="4400" x:fmla="=A6*100" align="right">$4,400.00 </td> <td class="xl26" x:num="5823.62" x:fmla="=(B6*110)+(C6*341)+(D6*826.1)+(1844.81*E6)+(3984.1*F6)" align="right">$5,823.62 </td> <td class="xl26" x:num="-1423.62" x:fmla="=G6-H6" align="right">($1,423.62)</td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 48pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 48pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 48pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 48pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 48pt; background-color: transparent;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 57pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="8600" x:fmla="=A1*100" align="right" width="76">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 57pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="5534.43" x:fmla="=(B1*110)+(C1*341)+(D1*826.1)+(1844.81*E1)+(3984.1*F1)" align="right" width="76">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); width: 61pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="3065.57" x:fmla="=G1-H1" align="right" width="81">
</td></tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 10.5pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="14200" x:fmla="=A2*100" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="11178.86" x:fmla="=(B2*110)+(C2*341)+(D2*826.1)+(1844.81*E2)+(3984.1*F2)" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="3021.14" x:fmla="=G2-H2" align="right">
</td></tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 10.5pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="10800" x:fmla="=A3*100" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="10721.15" x:fmla="=(B3*110)+(C3*341)+(D3*826.1)+(1844.81*E3)+(3984.1*F3)" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="78.850000000000364" x:fmla="=G3-H3" align="right">
</td></tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 10.5pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="14100" x:fmla="=A4*100" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="7406.63" x:fmla="=(B4*110)+(C4*341)+(D4*826.1)+(1844.81*E4)+(3984.1*F4)" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="6693.37" x:fmla="=G4-H4" align="right">
</td></tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); height: 10.5pt; background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="12600" x:fmla="=A5*100" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="10391.15" x:fmla="=(B5*110)+(C5*341)+(D5*826.1)+(1844.81*E5)+(3984.1*F5)" align="right">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="border: medium none rgb(236, 233, 216); background-color: transparent;" x:num="2208.85" x:fmla="=G5-H5" align="right">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

When a team goes under twice in a row with an o/u of 9, chase the OVER for 4 or 5 games (5 on top, then 4): (not sure which of the two I will use. As you can see, more volatility comes with the 5)

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 463pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="617"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="6" width="64"> <col style="width: 57pt;" span="2" width="76"> <col style="width: 61pt;" width="81"> <tbody><tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt; width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14" width="64">88</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">0</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">0</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">0</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 57pt;" x:num="8800" x:fmla="=A1*100" align="right" width="76">$8,800.00 </td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 57pt;" x:num="561" x:fmla="=(B1*110)+(C1*341)+(D1*826.1)+(1844.81*E1)+(3984.1*F1)" align="right" width="76">$561.00 </td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 61pt;" x:num="8239" x:fmla="=G1-H1" align="right" width="81">$8,239.00 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">109</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10900" x:fmla="=A2*100" align="right">$10,900.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="9014.3" x:fmla="=(B2*110)+(C2*341)+(D2*826.1)+(1844.81*E2)+(3984.1*F2)" align="right">$9,014.30 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="1885.7" x:fmla="=G2-H2" align="right">$1,885.70 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">104</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10400" x:fmla="=A3*100" align="right">$10,400.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="3984.1" x:fmla="=(B3*110)+(C3*341)+(D3*826.1)+(1844.81*E3)+(3984.1*F3)" align="right">$3,984.10 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="6415.9" x:fmla="=G3-H3" align="right">$6,415.90 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">98</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="9800" x:fmla="=A4*100" align="right">$9,800.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="12062.3" x:fmla="=(B4*110)+(C4*341)+(D4*826.1)+(1844.81*E4)+(3984.1*F4)" align="right">$12,062.30 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="-2262.3" x:fmla="=G4-H4" align="right">($2,262.30)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">118</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">4</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="11800" x:fmla="=A5*100" align="right">$11,800.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="13559.4" x:fmla="=(B5*110)+(C5*341)+(D5*826.1)+(1844.81*E5)+(3984.1*F5)" align="right">$13,559.40 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="-1759.4" x:fmla="=G5-H5" align="right">($1,759.40)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">124</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">4</td> <td class="xl26" x:num="12400" x:fmla="=A6*100" align="right">$12,400.00 </td> <td class="xl26" x:num="16607.4" x:fmla="=(B6*110)+(C6*341)+(D6*826.1)+(1844.81*E6)+(3984.1*F6)" align="right">$16,607.40 </td> <td class="xl26" x:num="-4207.4" x:fmla="=G6-H6" align="right">($4,207.40)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">88</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="8800" x:fmla="=A8*100" align="right">$8,800.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="6095.43" x:fmla="=(B8*110)+(C8*341)+(D8*826.1)+(1844.81*E8)+(3984.1*F8)" align="right">$6,095.43 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="2704.57" x:fmla="=G8-H8" align="right">$2,704.57 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">109</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10900" x:fmla="=A9*100" align="right">$10,900.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10270.15" x:fmla="=(B9*110)+(C9*341)+(D9*826.1)+(1844.81*E9)+(3984.1*F9)" align="right">$10,270.15 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="629.85" x:fmla="=G9-H9" align="right">$629.85 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">104</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10400" x:fmla="=A10*100" align="right">$10,400.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="3689.62" x:fmla="=(B10*110)+(C10*341)+(D10*826.1)+(1844.81*E10)+(3984.1*F10)" align="right">$3,689.62 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="6710.38" x:fmla="=G10-H10" align="right">$6,710.38 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">98</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="9800" x:fmla="=A11*100" align="right">$9,800.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="9334.05" x:fmla="=(B11*110)+(C11*341)+(D11*826.1)+(1844.81*E11)+(3984.1*F11)" align="right">$9,334.05 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="465.95000000000073" x:fmla="=G11-H11" align="right">$465.95 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">118</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">4</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="11800" x:fmla="=A12*100" align="right">$11,800.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10831.15" x:fmla="=(B12*110)+(C12*341)+(D12*826.1)+(1844.81*E12)+(3984.1*F12)" align="right">$10,831.15 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="968.85" x:fmla="=G12-H12" align="right">$968.85 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">119</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">9</td> <td class="xl24">
</td> <td class="xl26" x:num="11900" x:fmla="=A13*100" align="right">$11,900.00 </td> <td class="xl26" x:num="17274.29" x:fmla="=(B13*110)+(C13*341)+(D13*826.1)+(1844.81*E13)+(3984.1*F13)" align="right">$17,274.29 </td> <td class="xl26" x:num="-5374.29" x:fmla="=G13-H13" align="right">($5,374.29)</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Whena team goes over twice in a row with an o/u of 9.5, chase the Under for 5 games
<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 463pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="617"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="6" width="64"> <col style="width: 57pt;" span="2" width="76"> <col style="width: 61pt;" width="81"> <tbody><tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt; width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14" width="64">125</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">0</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">0</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 57pt;" x:num="12500" x:fmla="=A1*100" align="right" width="76">$12,500.00 </td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 57pt;" x:num="9135.3" x:fmla="=(B1*110)+(C1*341)+(D1*826.1)+(1844.81*E1)+(3984.1*F1)" align="right" width="76">$9,135.30 </td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 61pt;" x:num="3364.7" x:fmla="=G1-H1" align="right" width="81">$3,364.70 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">87</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="8700" x:fmla="=A2*100" align="right">$8,700.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="5030.2" x:fmla="=(B2*110)+(C2*341)+(D2*826.1)+(1844.81*E2)+(3984.1*F2)" align="right">$5,030.20 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="3669.8" x:fmla="=G2-H2" align="right">$3,669.80 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">106</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10600" x:fmla="=A3*100" align="right">$10,600.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="8419.2" x:fmla="=(B3*110)+(C3*341)+(D3*826.1)+(1844.81*E3)+(3984.1*F3)" align="right">$8,419.20 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="2180.8" x:fmla="=G3-H3" align="right">$2,180.80 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">101</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="10100" x:fmla="=A4*100" align="right">$10,100.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="9200.2" x:fmla="=(B4*110)+(C4*341)+(D4*826.1)+(1844.81*E4)+(3984.1*F4)" align="right">$9,200.20 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="899.79999999999927" x:fmla="=G4-H4" align="right">$899.80 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">92</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="9200" x:fmla="=A5*100" align="right">$9,200.00 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="11128.5" x:fmla="=(B5*110)+(C5*341)+(D5*826.1)+(1844.81*E5)+(3984.1*F5)" align="right">$11,128.50 </td> <td class="xl25" x:num="-1928.5" x:fmla="=G5-H5" align="right">($1,928.50)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 10.5pt;" height="14"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 10.5pt;" x:num="" align="right" height="14">125</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl26" x:num="12500" x:fmla="=A6*100" align="right">$12,500.00 </td> <td class="xl26" x:num="8298.2" x:fmla="=(B6*110)+(C6*341)+(D6*826.1)+(1844.81*E6)+(3984.1*F6)" align="right">$8,298.20 </td> <td class="xl26" x:num="4201.8" x:fmla="=G6-H6" align="right">$4,201.80</td></tr></tbody></table>

I will also post Frankster's Heavy Favorite System in its own thread. I do not know if I will play it myself, but since I know the rules and there seems to be interest, I will post it. If anyone else is interested in posting it, please do so as it would alleviate some of my responsibility.

Lastly, the lines posted above (e.g., +110, -130, etc.) are CLOSING Lines and we will use 5Dimes regular lines (not reduced juice or overnight) to determine plays. Some of these will have to wait to be determined as plays until immediately before games if they are close.

best of luck and if you have any questions I will be happy to answer them. here is to a great year.


Actually, one last thing. I learned a valuable (and expensive) lesson this season in NHL. Discretion, capping and deviation is out the door for me. Since all of the research I have done did not take any of them into account, all of the plays that fit play criteria mustbe played if you want the expected results. Discipline is a HUGE Key. I was horribly undisciplined in NHL and paid for it. You will need a fairly sizable bankroll if you want to play all of most of these, so please be sure to adjust your unit size accordingly.

nice work fhmes, with all this work you deserve to profit nicely this season

one question, when are you going to start playing these systems? I'll be watching and pulling for you this season, good luck

WHAT A GREAT POST...I WISH YOU GREAT SUCCESS WITH YOUR SYSTEMS..I'M SURE I'LL BE TAILING.I LIKE PLAYING OVERS AND UNDERS AND DOGS:lol: :toast: :drink: :drink:

hey FHM,
are u suggesting 5dimes as the book with the best lines. right now i use sportsinteraction and they have been pretty good for me.

Thanks guys,

Mike, they will be commenced right from the start. The research doesn't show a poor results with limited games played, so I see no reason to wait.

Mo,

No, only that 5Dimes will be used to determine whether a game meets the play or pass criteria for the systems that use lines. Although, with nickel overnight lines, they should be close to the best.

Great post man, I will be trying to play all of these throughout the season, along with a few others.

Got the CD with the spreadsheets today, by the way, thanks!

If you need any help with tracking the picks or whatever, just gimme a holler and I'm there!

a little word to the wise for all followers .

try and win a very small amount with these.

their appears to be a ton of plays available.

if you have to go to game 3 or 4 in some of these , your balls will want to shrivle up . its gets expensive.

try and win 15 or 20 bucks with each series .

dont follow any of this advice if you are starting with a $50,000 to $100,000 bankroll....

FHM , good luck with all of this . you know i'm rooting for ya...

Good luck this season. Wish you the best.

Thanks guys. WNO is correct and I tried to hit that home with the advice regarding unit size. My recommendation would be to divide your allotted bankroll by the number of systems you plan to play. Say you have a $2000 bankroll and want to play all 4, allocate $500 to each system. Then, figure out the maximum you would want to be (say it is $100) and divide it by 35 for all systems other than the O/U system which you can divide by 20. This would give you $3 unit size for the Mofak, 4D and 3 Straight systems and $5 unit size for the o/u system.

Just my .02 on proper unit size.

FHMESQ44:

Got a quick favor since you seem to have available data...I was backchecking this system when my hard drive fucking crashes.hno:

It was very simple, play against a home team coming off a 6+ road trip and they have the next 6+ games at home.

Seems that the jet lag catches up with every team good/bad and when my shit went down, I was close to about 98% winners.

Obviously it was as a chase but I think that is the direction most of us baseball bettors are going.

Thanks in advance,

CSFBB

Can I ask a dumb question?

Is your unit size based on amount to win, or amount risked?

Meaning if your unit is $100 a game, and you lose 3 games in a row, and are up to lets say the final 35 unit play of the 4 game chase, and it is a -200 fav, you are betting $7k risked to win $3500?

hey FHM,
can u check what the historical record of winning on the first game in the mofak system and 4D system.

CSFBB, are you talking as a 6 game chase?

Peter, the unit size would be an amount to win, but when I reference 35 units I am referencing what shouold be a max risked.

Mo, Sure, I will get back to you

One other thing, I realized when I posted the number of losses for the season of the 4D and 3 straight systems that I included short losses (i.e., series that didn't end up playing out all the way through the 4th game). So the actual full 4 game losses for the 4D system range from about 3-6, usually 4-5 per year. 3 straight would be about 5-7

CSFBB - That system would be a huge loser. It would also lose if you played them to win one game.

Not sure how far out you went, but if you go past 4th game on a chase it probably gets too expensive.

Mo,

It is around 50% for the 4D system. I can't really tell with your system b/c I can't easily determine opponents winning percentage. However, if you were to include the first game for every team that could be a play (i.e., independent of our pass criteria relative to opponents winning percentage and being required to play one on the road/home, as applicable):

<.470 06 on top and going back

88-58
98-50
85-54
83-48
96-57
93-49
96-57

>.540

87-59
68-50
106-55
81-53
84-56
82-49

Not sure how that would look in $$

Outstanding 44, looking forward to the plays.

Ok, thanks 44...appreciate your help

BOL this MLB season, will be checking the thread often...

CSFBB

How does this usually do the first 2 games of a series? I followed Markie in hockey but skipped the first 2 of each series and was up more for it.

guitarjosh said:

How does this usually do the first 2 games of a series? I followed Markie in hockey but skipped the first 2 of each series and was up more for it.

Click to expand...

No idea. I could figure it out, but it would take more effort than I am interested in putting forth. Sorry, don't mean to be a dick, it would take too much effort and I am just comfortable with the research I have done and results therefrom.

fhmesq44 said:

No idea. I could figure it out, but it would take more effort than I am interested in putting forth. Sorry, don't mean to be a dick, it would take too much effort and I am just comfortable with the research I have done and results therefrom.

Click to expand...

I agree with you, FHM. Guitarjosh, you have to remember that usually in most systems (of course, I'm pulling this out of my azz but the underlying point remains...) that about 70% of most chases do hit in the first 2 games.

FHM would not only have to just screen out the first 2 games of a series to come up with the output of all series results "sans first 2 games" which would likely look like a less-risk avenue with apparent more units won as you perceived. However, FHM would also have to figure out the numbers between those statistics:

• units won in the 1st two games of a series intentionally missed (which would be considerable if the number 70% holds true)
• total units lost in a LOST series (evidently much higher if playing all 5 games as opposed to final 3 games without playing the 1st 2 games-- as an example)
• total units lost in a LOST partial-series only, as in playing only the 3rd game-to-end of series (obviously any series win during between games 3 to 6 or such would mean that both concepts do win the 1 base unit equally regardless of how many units you bet)

My guess is that if you really want to figure this out, it'd be something like this formula:

Units lost in all full-series losses MINUS units lost in all partial-series losses THEN THIS TOTAL IS ADDED TO the units won playing either of 1st 2 games =

NEGATIVE result means it would be better off to play the partial-series concept
POSITIVE result means it would be better off to play the full-series concept

Guess what? This wouldn't tell you the true answer anyway because it relies on exactly same odds for all games, including Game 1 or Game 5.

Several examples where it's practically impossible to figure this out:

Series #A fading road teams (odds shown are home teams)

FS (full; play all): -180, -200, -120, +150, -200
PS (partial; miss 1st 2): no play, no play, -120, +150, -200

If the actual results for the home teams were:

LWLLL

the road team having a great 5-game road trip losing only the 2nd game and upsetting a heavy home favorite in the 5th game then,

FS = +1.0 unit won
PS = -9.7 units lost

but if actual results were:

LLLLL

FS = -91.4 units lost
PS = -10.0 units lost

This is where guitarjosh is making the point of missing the first 2 games saving about -81.4 units lost. Now, the issue at hand is whether guitarjosh also has missed out on 100 units in a season won by not playing the first 2 games...with just 1 major loss of the year illustrated above. THEN consider the tiny possibility guitarjosh have some small losses like in the 1st example (i.e. WLLL or LWLLL).

I am killing time on this post because my home computer is being backed up so I'm on my work laptop at home talking non-stop in this post. Sorry for the long babble!

IN SHORT, just play all the games in a series is what I'm suggesting without even bothering with the actual numbers on missing the 1st 2 games.

Cheers,

* CalvinTy