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Thread: I had a poster that emailed me wanting to know how I cap a baseball game (heres how)

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  1. #1 I had a poster that emailed me wanting to know how I cap a baseball game (heres how) 
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    I had a poster that emailed me the other day asking me how I cap a baseball game.

    Well the answer is a very long answer, and I did not feel it justified the time to go into great detail with just one person. So I decieded to answer his email right here in the forum.

    Im going to be posting my plays here this season for the 3rd year in a row, and if there are people that want to follow me, im sure they would like to know how I do what I do, thats what this thread is about.

    I feel that the way I do things is tested over the long haul. It works. Im not going to go into my past pre forum success anymore. I have said what I have done in the past many times, if you want to believe it fine, if not, no big deal. The truth is the truth and thats all I care about.

    But for my documented record at this forum, you can go to the tracker room and see my results for 2005 and 2006

    2005 +100 units Spring Training & Regular season combined
    2006 -40 units Spring Training & Regular season combined

    What I post may be helpful, and it may not.

    Im not trying to talk down to anyone that has knowledge about caping baseball, some of this stuff some of you already know. There is a vast range of knowledge at this forum, from rookie starter to the old veteren thats been doing this for 30 years. Im going to start from the beginning.

    So here we go:


    The first thing we all must understand is that the baseball season is very very long. There is no way in hell that you can treat baseball like football capping. You dont have all week long to cap on card worth of games.

    If you tried to cap each baseball game as indepth as you do a football game, you would be 100% burnt out by the end of May.

    So what I have done to combat that problem is to use a system (I DONT KNOW IF SYSTEM IS THE CORRECT TERM) that catagories each team and starting pitcher with a power number.

    In the offseason I go over every team front to back. I love this shit. I could spend days and weeks just reading about baseball. The only way you can be great at something is if you love it. And I love it greatly.

    The highest score a team can have is 300 (although no team has ever reached that level before, in theroy it could happen.

    I rank each offense from 1 to 70 based on there lineup.
    This changes every night based on platoon situations whether they are facing a righty or a lefty and of course injuries.

    I rank the starting pitching 1 to 120. This is the most important factor in capping a game for me. That number was 140 last season but I gave an extra 20 points to the bullpens this year for this system. This is the main adjustment I am making this season is giving the bullpens more weight.

    The bullpen gets ranked from 1 to 50

    I rank hotness or coldness of a team 1 to 20. I check there last 20 games. For every win they get a point. This is a weighted system, this does not carry much weight in my selection but it can make the difference between a 2 or 3 unit play.

    I rank Defense 1 to 15
    I rank Home Field 1 to 15 (and the road team gets negitive points)

    And I rank the manager 1 to 10.

    OFFENSE 70
    Starting Pitcher 120
    Bullpen 50
    HOT/COLD 20
    Defense 15
    Homefield 15
    Manager 10

    Add it all up and it comes out to 300.

    I come up with these rankings from my offseason study.

    Of course I make adjustments to these almost daily.

    The reason I do this is so I can quickly hit the overnight lines, see what they are and make a bet. You have to have something fast and compact for baseball.

    I am a long way from done here. The best way for me to explain this is to go thru one game and cap it from beginning to end.

    I will take the SUNDAY NIGHT GAME FOR EXAMPLE.


    ST LOUIS VS NY METS


    CARDINALS
    POWER RANKING with Carpenter at St Louis 214


    METS POWER RANKING with Glavine 188

    214-188 is 26

    This means that I have the cardinals 26 points more powerfull than the Mets on Sunday night.

    Now you may ask, Well that means you should take ST LOUIS right? Not so fast!

    In baseball you dont cap to pick winners. You cap for line value.

    26 points only justifies a St Louis play of -122 or or less.

    Since the Cards are going to be -145 or so, this is looking like a small play on the Mets.

    I have a converstion formula for my power rankings that you take the difference of the 2 teams number and you can calculate what the line should be.

    This determines if you take the fav or the dog.

    26 in my formula means that that team wins 55% of the time.

    So the next thing you have to do is go to the money line chart and convert the play to find where the moneyline value is. Here is the chart below.
    This chart helps determine value









    Fav










    moneyline

    loss
    win
    win %


    moneyline

    loss
    win
    win %
    -400
    -400
    100
    0.800


    -235
    -235
    100
    0.701
    -395
    -395
    100
    0.798


    -230
    -230
    100
    0.697
    -390
    -390
    100
    0.796


    -225
    -225
    100
    0.692
    -385
    -385
    100
    0.794


    -220
    -220
    100
    0.688
    -380
    -380
    100
    0.792


    -215
    -215
    100
    0.683
    -375
    -375
    100
    0.789


    -210
    -210
    100
    0.677
    -370
    -370
    100
    0.787


    -205
    -205
    100
    0.672
    -365
    -365
    100
    0.785


    -200
    -200
    100
    0.667
    -360
    -360
    100
    0.783


    -195
    -195
    100
    0.661
    -355
    -355
    100
    0.780


    -190
    -190
    100
    0.655
    -350
    -350
    100
    0.778


    -185
    -185
    100
    0.649
    -345
    -345
    100
    0.775


    -180
    -180
    100
    0.643
    -340
    -340
    100
    0.773


    -175
    -175
    100
    0.636
    -335
    -335
    100
    0.770


    -170
    -170
    100
    0.630
    -330
    -330
    100
    0.767


    -165
    -165
    100
    0.623
    -325
    -325
    100
    0.765


    -160
    -160
    100
    0.615
    -320
    -320
    100
    0.762


    -155
    -155
    100
    0.608
    -315
    -315
    100
    0.759


    -150
    -150
    100
    0.600
    -310
    -310
    100
    0.756


    -145
    -145
    100
    0.592
    -305
    -305
    100
    0.753


    -140
    -140
    100
    0.583
    -300
    -300
    100
    0.750


    -135
    -135
    100
    0.574
    -295
    -295
    100
    0.747


    -130
    -130
    100
    0.565
    -290
    -290
    100
    0.744


    -125
    -125
    100
    0.556
    -285
    -285
    100
    0.740


    -120
    -120
    100
    0.545
    -280
    -280
    100
    0.737


    -115
    -115
    100
    0.535
    -275
    -275
    100
    0.733


    -110
    -110
    100
    0.524
    -270
    -270
    100
    0.730


    -105
    -105
    100
    0.512
    -265
    -265
    100
    0.726


    -100
    -100
    100
    0.500
    -260
    -260
    100
    0.722









    -255
    -255
    100
    0.718









    -250
    -250
    100
    0.714









    -245
    -245
    100
    0.710









    -240
    -240
    100
    0.706










    Thats your favorite chart.


    Here is you dog chart.


    Dog








    Dog






    moneyline

    loss
    win
    win %

    moneyline

    loss
    win
    win %
    400
    100
    400
    0.200

    235
    100
    235
    0.30
    395
    100
    395
    0.202

    230
    100
    230
    0.30
    390
    100
    390
    0.204

    225
    100
    225
    0.31
    385
    100
    385
    0.206

    220
    100
    220
    0.31
    380
    100
    380
    0.208

    215
    100
    215
    0.32
    375
    100
    375
    0.211

    210
    100
    210
    0.32
    370
    100
    370
    0.213

    205
    100
    205
    0.33
    365
    100
    365
    0.215

    200
    100
    200
    0.33
    360
    100
    360
    0.217

    195
    100
    195
    0.34
    355
    100
    355
    0.220

    190
    100
    190
    0.34
    350
    100
    350
    0.222

    185
    100
    185
    0.35
    345
    100
    345
    0.225

    180
    100
    180
    0.36
    340
    100
    340
    0.227

    175
    100
    175
    0.36
    335
    100
    335
    0.230

    170
    100
    170
    0.37
    330
    100
    330
    0.233

    165
    100
    165
    0.38
    325
    100
    325
    0.235

    160
    100
    160
    0.38
    320
    100
    320
    0.238

    155
    100
    155
    0.39
    315
    100
    315
    0.241

    150
    100
    150
    0.40
    310
    100
    310
    0.244

    145
    100
    145
    0.41
    305
    100
    305
    0.247

    140
    100
    140
    0.42
    300
    100
    300
    0.250

    135
    100
    135
    0.43
    295
    100
    295
    0.253

    130
    100
    130
    0.43
    290
    100
    290
    0.256

    125
    100
    125
    0.44
    285
    100
    285
    0.260

    120
    100
    120
    0.45
    280
    100
    280
    0.263

    115
    100
    115
    0.47
    275
    100
    275
    0.267

    110
    100
    110
    0.48
    265
    100
    265
    0.274

    100
    100
    100
    0.50
    270
    100
    270
    0.270

    105
    100
    105
    0.49
    265
    100
    265
    0.274

    100
    100
    100
    0.50
    260
    100
    260
    0.278







    255
    100
    255
    0.282







    250
    100
    250
    0.286







    245
    100
    245
    0.290







    240
    100
    240
    0.294





    Now if a team is +26 over the other team, and 26 in my formula means that that team wins 55% of the time, then all you have to do is go to the moneyline chart above and see what the line should be on 55%.

    If you look at the chart it comes out to about -122.

    Im expecting The Cards to be about -145, and the mets to be +135, this would mean that there is a 13 point value on the mets for this game.

    That does not come out to be a huge play, but it does deserve a wager on the mets unless im totally wrong about what the line is going to be on the game.


    That is a basic example of what I do.

    I hope you found it helpfull. If it did, my job was a success.

    I will answer any questions on other thing about how I do this.

    It would take all day to thru the full detail. But this is a pretty good outline.


    Have great baseball season this year everyone!

    Lets make some
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  2. #2  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    I already thought of 10 things that I did not post above.

    I guess I will answer the questions as they come if anyone cares.
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  3. #3  
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    Have you asked yourself (and analyzed) what went wrong in 2006, after having such a great 2005 season?
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  4. #4  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hellokitty View Post
    Have you asked yourself (and analyzed) what went wrong in 2006, after having such a great 2005 season?
    Im chalking it up to everyone has a down year every once in a while.

    As you can see, I did not make any major changes from what I have done in the past.

    Basically the same as its been since 1996 except for the bullpen getting alittle more weight when I got my first version of Microsoft excell and put this all together.

    I have had this all in a spreadsheet since Windows 95.

    I am counting on a very good season this year. The variance just caught up to me last season.
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  5. #5  
    RX Senior earl's Avatar
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    damn chop, you are one baseball'aholic. have you ever considered taking up dating?
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  6. #6  
    RaiderNation Double J's Avatar
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    Very good write-up Chop....thanks. As for last year, I think a lot of people didn't do well. It was, by far, one of the strangest years I've seen in quite some time.

    Shit...it had to be strange, especially when my Tigers make the World Series!! That say a lot right there. Best of luck to you in the 2007 season.
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  7. #7  
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    wow, chop...

    how much time does it take per game?

    no way i have the time to do anything like that........

    best of luck this season.........

    great comparison to be made between you and me......

    you spend alot of time capping, i spend minutes running a totally mechanical system............. about as different as it can be....

    be nice if both ways turned out to be very profitable this season......
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  8. #8  
    Self appointed RX World Champion Handicapper
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    Quote Originally Posted by SSI View Post
    wow, chop...

    how much time does it take per game?

    no way i have the time to do anything like that........

    i'm guessing all the guy does is try and handicap baseball and masturbate..

    and i'd be willing to bet he's really only good at one of them ....

    i'll give you one guess which one ..
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  9. #9  
    RX Senior oatmealpancakes's Avatar
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    Thanks for posting this. Good luck today, man.
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  10. #10  
    RX Junior Uscsilb24's Avatar
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    choptalk....thanks for that man.....thats what this forum is all about to me....i rarely post and mostly lurk, but what you taking the time to type that for everyone just shows the class guy you are....

    you will get it turned around this year, and just wanted to thank you and everyone else on here for all the hardwork a lot of you put into capping....

    that is some good stuff man
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  11. #11  
    RX Senior mike0187's Avatar
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    hey chop, that is interesting, always like to see how other people are doing things

    only question is...

    how do you determine that a 26 point difference in power ratings means a team should win 55% of the time?
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  12. #12  
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    great write up......how do u decide what games u play or do you play them all based on the system?
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  13. #13  
    RX Local Jake T.'s Avatar
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    I hate it when people ask me how to cap a baseball game, not because I'm a dick that doesn't want to help, just because there are literally a million things that go thru my head and some of them don't translate well into written form. I could fill a few chapters of a book up with what goes thru my head.
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  14. #14  
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    wow what an ego
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  15. #15  
    RX Local Jake T.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHOPTALK View Post
    Im chalking it up to everyone has a down year every once in a while.

    As you can see, I did not make any major changes from what I have done in the past.

    Basically the same as its been since 1996 except for the bullpen getting alittle more weight when I got my first version of Microsoft excell and put this all together.

    I have had this all in a spreadsheet since Windows 95.

    I am counting on a very good season this year. The variance just caught up to me last season.
    I'm in the same boat. Had four years in a row where I dominated, then last year I just couldn't get on track. Good luck this year Chop.
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  16. #16  
    Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right. fhmesq44's Avatar
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    Good writeup and interesting Chop. Two questions,

    how much of what goes into the rankings is objective v. subjective?

    At what point does a game become a play and, likewise, a bigger play for you. Presumably if a team is only a few points of value you don't play it while if you cap it at +40 it would be abigger play. Wondering how you break that out.
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  17. #17  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by earl View Post
    damn chop, you are one baseball'aholic. have you ever considered taking up dating?
    Yes I am, but lucky for me, already have the women of my dreams.

    Good luck this season.
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  18. #18  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Very good write-up Chop....thanks. As for last year, I think a lot of people didn't do well. It was, by far, one of the strangest years I've seen in quite some time.

    Shit...it had to be strange, especially when my Tigers make the World Series!! That say a lot right there. Best of luck to you in the 2007 season.

    and best of luck to you.

    Thanks.
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  19. #19  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SSI View Post
    wow, chop...

    how much time does it take per game?

    no way i have the time to do anything like that........

    best of luck this season.........

    great comparison to be made between you and me......

    you spend alot of time capping, i spend minutes running a totally mechanical system............. about as different as it can be....

    be nice if both ways turned out to be very profitable this season......
    SSI, the bulk of my capping takes place in the offseason. I cap and make my major adjustments every monday, and slight adjustments every day.

    The slight adjustments on a daily bases only takes about 30mins a day.

    The weekly adjustments on Mondays take about 6 hours. So I spend about 9 or 10 hours a week capping. and about 200 hours or so in the offseason capping.

    this is the very reason for this system. So I dont have to start from strach every single day from square 1. This system gives me a great starting point.

    By the time the lines come out I already have the games capped. All I do is match the power number to the moneyline conversion chart.
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  20. #20  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by World Number One View Post
    i'm guessing all the guy does is try and handicap baseball and masturbate..

    and i'd be willing to bet he's really only good at one of them ....

    i'll give you one guess which one ..
    I dont know why you have so much hatred for me. Its starting to become comical.

    Maybe I pissed you off in a past life.

    Who knows, and more importantly Who Cares?
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  21. #21  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oatmealpancakes View Post
    Thanks for posting this. Good luck today, man.

    Thanks man. I pushed both the first 2 games today. 1 left.
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  22. #22  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uscsilb24 View Post
    choptalk....thanks for that man.....thats what this forum is all about to me....i rarely post and mostly lurk, but what you taking the time to type that for everyone just shows the class guy you are....

    you will get it turned around this year, and just wanted to thank you and everyone else on here for all the hardwork a lot of you put into capping....

    that is some good stuff man
    Thanks for the nice words.

    Not going to let 1 bad year drastically change the way I do things.

    I have a good feel for this season.

    Batter up!
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  23. #23  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike0187 View Post
    hey chop, that is interesting, always like to see how other people are doing things

    only question is...

    how do you determine that a 26 point difference in power ratings means a team should win 55% of the time?
    I took me about 3 years to come up with that number system.

    The only way I can tell that it works is if I have winning seasons on a regular basis.

    That is the most important key to this system is the power number conversion to the moneyline.

    This is why my system is a 300 point system.

    It breaks off like a non true 10 cent line.

    If a team has a 1 to 50 point difference in there power rating, its almost a point for point on the money line.

    For instance. St Louis is a 26. This makes them -122. It is about 1.25 points per point on power ranking up to 50. Once it gets past 50 it breaks off to bigger numbers.

    I will post the whole chart when I get to my other computer with the spread sheets when I get back home if anyone wants me to.
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  24. #24  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Football King View Post
    great write up......how do u decide what games u play or do you play them all based on the system?
    I need at least 10 points of money line value to make a 1 unit play.

    1 unit plays are 10 to 19
    2 unit plays are 20 to 28
    3 unit plays are 29 to 40

    Monster plays are anything above 40.

    The mets are 13 right now based on my prediction that the line is going to be St Louis -145.

    So as it stands, the Mets will be a 1 unit play.
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  25. #25  
    RX Semi-God CHOPTALK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakethompson View Post
    I hate it when people ask me how to cap a baseball game, not because I'm a dick that doesn't want to help, just because there are literally a million things that go thru my head and some of them don't translate well into written form. I could fill a few chapters of a book up with what goes thru my head.
    I hear you Jake, thats why I have put this off for so long.

    I think I did a poor job of explaining this thing after re-reading what I wrote.

    I have not even began to get into this thing the its really done.

    This is the pure basics.
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