Opening Day Intrinsic Values

As explained in this thread here, http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=470681 I derive an intrinsic value for every baseball game using my valuation model. Here are the intrinsic values (not the expected market lines) for the opening day games (give or take a few games due to some injuries that may or may not prevent some players from playing).

The first set of numbers represents the intrinsic values of both teams. The next set of numbers represents the equivalent market equilibrium price. The last set of numbers represents the margin of safety required for both teams, essentially meaning what the lowest possible price has to be to place a bet on that team.


NYM@ STL +130/-130 +126/134 +142/-120
Comment: The opening line of this game just came out at pinnacle, and is currently at the exact equilibrium price that is adjusted for vig. No value on either team.

Atl@ Phi +115/-115 +111/-119 +127/-105

Fla @ Was -107/+107 -111/+103 +104/+121

Lad@ Milw +163/-163 +159/-167 +181/-145
Comment: I am expecting the Brewers to opening up at a price well below their intrinsic value in this game and more than likely under my margin of safety, making them a play on opening day. A lot of hidden value in this game is derived based on the notion both starting pitchers are very situational pitchers. Lowe has several unfavorable factors in this match up, while it is quite the opposite for Sheets

Chic@ Reds -135/+135 -139/+131 120/+170
Comment: Expect the Cubs to open up below their intrinsic value in this game. The Reds should be one of the more overvalued teams during the first month of the season.

Pit@ Hou +226/-226 +220/-232 +255/-200
Comment: This simply is not a good fundamental match up for Duke. Expect the Astros to be slightly undervalued in this game.

Tor/Det -105/+105 109/+101 +106/+118

Bos/KC -102/+102 -106/-102 +107/+114
Comment: There probably won’t be another game on Monday that will deviate more from its intrinsic value than this one. I am expecting the Royals to be a nice value play in this game.

Oak/Sea +146/-146 +142-150 +162/-136
Comment: Expect the Mariners to trade below their intrinsic value.

Smoltz vs Myers

Willis vs Patterson

Lowe vs Sheets

Zambrano vs Harang

Duke vs Oswalt

Halladay vs Bonderman

Schilling vs Meche

Harden vs Hernandez

here are the pitchers for the games buffet listed.

Thanks for adding that CNW. By the way, where do you see Harden as the starter? All my sources show Haren as the man.

buffetgambler

do you remember your record from last year...need a solid guy to tail

Viccas,
A more prudent question would be what my ROI was last season, but still not foretelling, as a one year sample is just a snapshot of an experienced handicappers handicapping ability.

I will give you a more intuitive answer. I have been doing this for nearly two decades and can not be more happy with my ROI and end result from those two decades.

Good luck this season (by the way, opening lines are not out at a couple of shops).

You are right Haren is the Opening Day Starter. I will edit it.