Marlins @ Nationals
Play: Nationals +121
Intrinsic Value: Value +107
Consider Betting Price: +121
Comment:
Not the most value on Monday’s card, but the Nationals hit my price target. I am in the majority in thinking that the Nationals are the worst team in baseball this year, but rarely does the worst publicly perceived team making for the worst bet. Although I am expecting Willis to bounce back from somewhat of an off season last year and is primed for a solid start, his worth in this game might be overvalued. He struggled against the Nats anemic lineup last year, and might not see a lot of action in this game if last year’s opening day start is foretelling, as he only managed to pitch five innings even though he allowed just one hit. Once Willis leaves the game, the Nats have the pitching advantage in the later innings, as they have one of the more underrated bullpens in the league while the Marlins have one of the worst.
Patterson has a ton of upside potential and should put up better numbers than last years injury riddled season. He has had a history of performing better at home, as has curtailed Caberera’s damage in the past, limiting him to only 2 extra base hits in 23 at bats, while dominating a couple other key hitters in their lineup in limited at bats. The Marlins have a slightly better chance of winning this game, but not as much as the current line indicates.
Play: Nationals +121
Intrinsic Value: Value +107
Consider Betting Price: +121
Comment:
Not the most value on Monday’s card, but the Nationals hit my price target. I am in the majority in thinking that the Nationals are the worst team in baseball this year, but rarely does the worst publicly perceived team making for the worst bet. Although I am expecting Willis to bounce back from somewhat of an off season last year and is primed for a solid start, his worth in this game might be overvalued. He struggled against the Nats anemic lineup last year, and might not see a lot of action in this game if last year’s opening day start is foretelling, as he only managed to pitch five innings even though he allowed just one hit. Once Willis leaves the game, the Nats have the pitching advantage in the later innings, as they have one of the more underrated bullpens in the league while the Marlins have one of the worst.
Patterson has a ton of upside potential and should put up better numbers than last years injury riddled season. He has had a history of performing better at home, as has curtailed Caberera’s damage in the past, limiting him to only 2 extra base hits in 23 at bats, while dominating a couple other key hitters in their lineup in limited at bats. The Marlins have a slightly better chance of winning this game, but not as much as the current line indicates.