MLB: Monday April 2 Plays(write ups)

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Marlins @ Nationals
Play: Nationals +121
Intrinsic Value: Value +107
Consider Betting Price: +121
Comment:
Not the most value on Monday’s card, but the Nationals hit my price target. I am in the majority in thinking that the Nationals are the worst team in baseball this year, but rarely does the worst publicly perceived team making for the worst bet. Although I am expecting Willis to bounce back from somewhat of an off season last year and is primed for a solid start, his worth in this game might be overvalued. He struggled against the Nats anemic lineup last year, and might not see a lot of action in this game if last year’s opening day start is foretelling, as he only managed to pitch five innings even though he allowed just one hit. Once Willis leaves the game, the Nats have the pitching advantage in the later innings, as they have one of the more underrated bullpens in the league while the Marlins have one of the worst.

Patterson has a ton of upside potential and should put up better numbers than last years injury riddled season. He has had a history of performing better at home, as has curtailed Caberera’s damage in the past, limiting him to only 2 extra base hits in 23 at bats, while dominating a couple other key hitters in their lineup in limited at bats. The Marlins have a slightly better chance of winning this game, but not as much as the current line indicates.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Indians @ White Sox
Play: Indians +116
Intrinsic Value +100
Consider Betting Price: +111
After a short lived scare yesterday with a potential devastating injury to Sabathia, he is back on the mound for opening day against the White Sox once again. It’s hard to imagine Sabathia not putting up a dominating performance in this game. He ran through the White Sox last year, pitching against them six times and winning all four decisions while putting forth a low 2 ERA. He has dominated the likes of Konerko, Thome and a couple of other key hitters throughout his career. The White Sox really struggled against southpaws last year, and should regress on an aggregate level, as three hitters overachieved substantially last year. The Indians downfall last year was their bullpen (and clutch hitting, defense and managing). Although they did not improve their pen much in the off season, Sabathia is a workhorse that can avoid it well even this early in the year.

I am not surprised in the least that Contreras struggled last year, and I am expecting more of the same this year, as his dominant year two years prior was as much of an anomaly as a sustainable structural change. He struggled this preseason and was roughed up last year by the Indians. The Indians lineup is deep and could wear down a pitcher that doesn’t like going into the strike zone. He is backed by an overrated bullpen and a struggling and unreliable closer. I will take the basis points, the better pitcher and slightly better lineup in this game.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Dodgers @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -104
Intrinsic Value -163
Consider Betting Price: -145
Comment:
There is not a National League team on opening day coming with more value than the Brewers. I am not surprised that they are trading well below their intrinsic value, but am a bit surprised that they aren’t even favorites in this game. Both starting pitchers in this game are situational pitchers heavily dependent on external variables. Aside from last year, Sheets has always been far more dominant at home, during the day and earlier in the season. All three variables are working in his favor. Last year, both the Dodgers veteran and young hitters alike hit the fastball well, but struggled against the off speed pitch, which should work in Sheet’s dominant curveballs favor. I am not expecting Sheets to go deep in this game, but he is backed by a deep bullpen that should not leave any inning terribly vulnerable in this game. Both lineups hit much better at home, favoring the Brewers in this game.

Unlike Sheets, Lowe has three variables working out of his favor in this game. He has always been known to be far less impressive on the road, easier to pick up during the day, and has struggled earlier in the season. He will also have to deal with pitching to four left handed bats this game. Aside from earlier in the season last year, Lowe has notoriously struggled against left handed hitters. His solid career numbers against the Brewers are deceiving, as he has not had much success against their hitters, and struggled against Counsell when he was with Arizona.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Cubs @ Reds
Play: Cubs -109
Intrinsic Value: -135
Consider Betting Price: -120
Comment:
With all the talk surrounding the Cubs during the off season and their propensity to be a public darling, I am a bit surprised there are coming with value already this early into the season. However, I am also expecting the Reds to be one of the more overvalued teams early in the year, as they should have a hard time playing as well as they did most of last season. Zambrano is exactly the type of pitcher you want pitching for you on a road opening day game. He is a stopper and emotional pitcher who gets his team to rally around him. He should once again have no problem continuing to dominate the Reds like has had done in the past. The Reds lineup leaves a lot to be desired, as they might struggle putting a starter who can put up a batting average over 280 on the season. Zambrano has never had a problem pitching well on the road, and actually last year was more dominant away from home. He has also been one of the best day game pitchers in baseball over the last few years. Backed by one of the most underrated bullpens in baseball and the Cubs should limit the Reds hitting production throughout this game.

Prior to last year, Harrang was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. However, last years solid season has taken all the value away from him, as the public is now on to him. With a healthy Lee and Soriano, the Cubs have one of the best lineups in the league that can produce at the top and at the bottom of the order. Harang’s fly ball pitching tendencies were not rewarded kindly last year when pitching at home, as Great American Park is one of the worst for fly ball pitchers. His home ERA of 4.61 was horrible compared to his sub three on the road. During the day he struggled even worse, as the fly balls traveled even further. Don’t expect him to be dominant in this one, and once he leaves this game, things should only get worse, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and a bullpen that lacks a closer that could hold onto any potential lead on a consistent basis.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Play: Rockies +111
Intrinsic Value: -112
Consider Betting Price: -101
Comment:
Wrong team favored in this game, but I am not surprised that linesmakers put the Dbacks favored with Webb on the mound. The Rockies are my sleeper team this year, as they have a top tier lineup in the National League, but are not getting credit for it. The heart of the lineup is as potent as any in the league, while last years problem at the bottom of the order should improve this year with some young players with a lot of upside. With the way the ball now travels in Coors, the advantage of having a dominant sinker like Webb’s diminishes. He should be on a smaller pitch count than normal in this game, and once he leaves, the Rockies lineup has the clear advantage over a sub par Dbacks bullpen.

Cook continues to get disrespected by linesmakers. He too has a dominant sinkerball that could curtail the effects of a day game in Coors. He really pitched well at home last year, especially during the day games. Although I got burned more than once betting on him against the Dbacks last year, expect him to put forth better numbers against them this year. Cook’s sinkerball has the propensity to bet beat up by left handed bats, and the last couple of years, the Dbacks were loaded from the left side. With some key left handed bats no longer on the Dbacks, Cook should be more comfortable in this one. Once both starters leave the game, the Rockies have the advantage, as they have the homefield, better lineup and better bullpen working in their favor.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Red Sox @ Royals
Play: Royals +161
Intrinsic Value: +102
Consider Betting Price: +114
Comment:
I am not surprised in the least that the Royals are the most undervalued team on the opening day and the Red Sox are the most overvalued. All off season, the Red Sox have been over publicized and over hyped- and that usually is accompanied with an overvaluation once the season starts. There has been all this talk that the Red Sox lineup remains one of the most potent in the league, but that is far from the case. Aside from Manny and Ortiz, their lineup leaves a lot to be desired, and should actually depreciate from last years uneventful numbers. There has been a lot of hype surrounding Meche and his big contract. The reality is that he has some of the most dominant stuff in the league, and his mental weakness has hindered his career so far year to date. The Red Sox overrated lineup has struggled against Meche’s style of pitching in the past, and Meche dominated them late last season. There is no denying that the Royals bullpen is bad, but Royals bettors are being more than compensated for such with the price that is accompanying them.

Schilling’s best days are behind him, but he is still coming with an inflated price tag. Late last year he showed that to be the case, as he put forth a 4.58 ERA after the break, including a start where he allowed eleven hits and seven runs against the Royals in Kansas City. The Royals lineup isn’t terribly potent, but is underrated. With Gordon adding extra pop, the Royals have a few young players that could surprise a lot of people this year. They played well last year at home. The Red Sox bullpen is vulnerable prior to the 9th inning, and Schilling’s pitch count should be curtailed early in the year.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

A’s @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -107
Intrinsic Value: -146
Consider Betting Price: -136
Comment:
Nice value on the Mariners in this game. It seems like Hernandez’s sub par season last year has scared off some bettors, but truth be told, this kid is special and should put forth a much better year. He improved late last season, and put together a solid spring. He has always been far more effective at home where he seems more comfortable. Pitching against an anemic lineup should also give him the confidence to go into the strike zone, a problem in the past against the better lineups he faced. Two years ago he ran through the A’s. The A’s lineup has quickly become one of the worst in baseball this year, now without Thomas and a key situational hitter like Kotsay on the shelf. The Mariners have a decent bullpen that should not have too much trouble with this lineup and a solid and underrated closer. Seems like the A’s overvaluation is from the past and their success against the Mariners, as from a fundamental standpoint, this price is not warranted.

Haren is a solid pitcher, but seemed really hittable late last season. He is also a right hander with the propensity to struggle against right handed hitters, which could be a problem against a Mariners lineup that will be showcasing seven of them. The Mariners have the starting pitching advantage, home field advantage and better lineup. The edge in the A’s bullpen is nowhere near enough to warrant this price tag. Nice value on the Mariners.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Pirates @ Astros
Play: Astros -200
Intrinsic Value: -226
Consider Betting Price: -200
Comment:
I normally don’t like laying such odds on baseball teams, especially this early in the season, but I do see some value on the Astros in this game. Don’t be surprised if Duke gets roughed up in this game. His sophomore slump last year was as much mental as it was fundamental, and he might run into a mental road block by pitching on opening day on the road. Last years struggles mainly occurred on the road, during the day and early in the season, all obstacles he has to overcome if he wants to pull off an upset. He will also have to pitch well against an improved Astros lineup, something he was unable to do last year. The Astros were always a dangerous home team, and finally getting a potent bat to protect Berkman on a consistent basis can spell trouble for opponents. Without Gonzalez in the ninth, the Pirates solid bullpen of last year has become more vulnerable.

Oswalt has consistently been a top tier dominant pitcher the last few years. He should have no problem continuing this trend this year as he is up against an inferior lineup that he ran through last year, allowing just two runs in 20 innings of work. He has always been dominant at home and has had past success against a few key hitters in the Pirates lineup. The Pirates were the worst road hitting team in the league last year, and without their best pure hitter Sanchez, and Nady out of the lineup, its hard to expect anything different starting this year.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Rangers @ Angels
Play: Angels -139
Intrinsic Value: Angels -153
Consider Betting: -139
Comment:
Not much value, but value none the less. I am not surprised that the Rangers are entering this season overvalued, as the public perception of having a top tier lineup is far from reality this year. Their four through nine lineups in fact is one of the worst in the league. Lackey has now put forth two dominant seasons in a row, and although the has struggled throughout his career against the Rangers, expect him to improve against them this year, as the Rangers now lack the depth that could put strain on a power pitcher like Lackey. Things should only get worse for the Rangers once Lackey exits, as there are only three bullpens in the league better than the Angels. Washington may be a managerial upgrade, but has yet to show his in game managing skills, that usually are accompanied by a learning curve.

Don’t expect the Angels lineup to be as anemic as it was last year. The addition of Mathews might be overblown, but the Angels have a few young bats potentially primed for a breakout season. Millwood is looking more and more like a one hit wonder, as he didn’t pitch anywhere near his contract would indicate last year. He has historically been known to struggle out of the gates as well. The loss of Gagne doesn’t necessarily depreciate their ninth inning, but should prove costly early on when their starters are one a smaller pitch count. The Rangers already lacked depth in their bullpen, and forcing Osuka to manage the ninth really makes any inning prior to that vulnerable. Angels should win this opener, and at -139, they are worth the risk in my opinion.

THEMASK · Mar 30, 2007

Man lol you did a lot of work there ..thanks for writeups..good luck i also like the first two..

CapNWatch · Mar 30, 2007

Nice writeup buffet.

buffettgambler · Apr 1, 2007

Thanks fellas. Good luck to you as well.

teazeman · Apr 1, 2007

sharing some knowledge as usual buffet, thanks and looking forward to you posting this season.

buffettgambler · Apr 2, 2007

Thanks Teaz. Good luck this season.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 2, 2007

I hope you have some strong shoulders as I am now along for the ride the entire season. Good luck to the both of us!!

Jibba · Apr 2, 2007

Nice writeups Buffet. Always enjoyed them in the football forum. Do you plan on posting daily picks all season? If so, do you think you'll be doing this many everyday or is this just an opening day thing? Just asking because I'm looking to follow a solid capper for 2-3 picks a day and don't want to have to choose from 6-7 picks. After all, the reason I'm following for the time being is I don't trust my own judgment. Thanks and BOL.

buffettgambler · Apr 2, 2007

Good luck OSU,

Jibba,
Yes I plan to be posting everyday this season. In response to your question, my style of handicapping (fundamental/value handicapper), my job is to spot undervalued teams due to market inefficiencies. Since it’s earlier in the season when less information is available, the market has a higher propensity to put out inefficient lines deemed by my valuation process (my valuation process is also prone to being less efficient as well due it being shifted to more qualitative nature based on past quantitative numbers as opposed to current quantitative variables). Case in point is the notion that a lot of the current lines have worked have flowed to my teams that I deemed undervalued when I posted these plays a few days ago. This would lead me to potentially have a higher number of bets early in the season, but could safely say 9 games is still out of the norm for me even during the first week.

Good luck.

Jibba · Apr 2, 2007

Thanks for taking the time to explain how you plan on posting this year Buffet. So far on with you on the Tribe and the Brewers. Will probably pass on the games that you see as having less value, especially since many of the lines have changed since you posted them. But will probably add a couple more from the stronger ones and figure it out as I go along. Thanks again and BOL.

MLB: Monday April 2 Plays(write ups)

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