Jake's Picks - MLB April 1st AND April 2nd

JakeT. · Mar 29, 2007

Most all of my plays are for one unit apiece. About 3-5% are for 2 unit and those have historically hit at a rate of nearly 62% over the last two years. If you ever see me do a .5 unit play (like today), it's either because I just really want action on something I shouldn't bet, or the line looks soooo easy I start to get a little nervous.

I list my personal handicapped lines, and then make plays if there is enough of a variation between my own line and the actual line.

Good luck to everyone this season.

Mets/Cards Over 7.5 -115
.5 Unit Play

Carpenter and Glavine both had one poor start each against the opposition last year and both guys are getting older. The Mets' bullpen has quite a few issues right now and Izzy is just getting over some injuries for StL which leaves open the possibility of late runs. Both offenses have some big bats and can score runs in bunches. Although both pitchers are on top of their game, this one seems .5 or even a full run below what it should be considering all the question marks.

Day two stuff on the way.

buffettgambler · Mar 29, 2007

Solid post. Good luck.

JakeT. · Mar 29, 2007

NL coming later.

My day 2 AL lines (currently listed starters):

Toronto Pk, U8 -110
Yankees -165, O9 -120
Indians -110, U9 -115
Red Sox -130, O10 -115
Seattle -120, U8 -125
Minnesota -240, U8 -120
Angels -150, O8.5 -115

Bets:

Cleveland Indians +100
Pitchers: Sabathia/Contreras

The White Sox don't hit lefties well and Sabathia has dominated them over the last few years. Contreras is getting up there in age and was not effective in spring ball. Cleveland's bats are top notch and should score enough runs to win this one if Sabathia brings his A-game.

Kansas City Royals +175
Red Sox/Royals Over 9.5 -110
Pitchers: Schilling/Meche

Schilling has had trouble with this KC lineup for a long time and it's no wonder why since KC crushes righties at home and hits very well when they can avoid the road. Meche has had an iffy spring but had a good start or two against the BoSox last year. The Red Sox should still score some runs on him but and the weak KC bullpen, but Boston hits less on the road. I think Schilling gets rocked and Meche gives up enough runs to push this one over and get home the first dog of the year.

Seattle/Oakland Under 8.5 -110
Pitchers: Haren/Hernandez

Neither team has a mighty offense and both squads back reliable bullpens. Haren owned the M's last year, both home and on the road, and King Felix has rebounded from a poor 2006 and has had a good spring. Seems like a good setup for a low-scoring game.

JakeT. · Mar 29, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Solid post. Good luck.

Thanks bud. Hope you have a great season as well.

JakeT. · Mar 29, 2007

KC should read +155 not +175.

My day 2 NL lines (currently listed starters):

Washington -130, U9 -120
Philly -135, U9 -115
Milwaukee Pk, U7.5 -115
Cubs -115, 8.5 Pk
Arizona -125, O9 -115
Houston -200, U8 -115

Bets:

Washington Nationals +110
Pitchers: Willis/Patterson

Dontrelle has had lots of trouble with this Nats lineup over the years and even without Nick Johnson, they should put up some runs in their home park. Patterson, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in the NL and he's ready to go after a long layoff. I'll take the home team with the more reliable starter (in this matchup) at a juicy +110 price.

Philadelphia Phillies -110
.5 Unit Play
Pitchers: Myers/Smoltz

Numbers say this is a nice play but for some reason, I have a bad feeling so will only do the .5 unit play early on. Smoltz always gives up a few runs to this Philly team and they are poised to have another great offense this year. Myers has a pretty good history against the Braves so I'd expect him to perform well. The bullpens are kind of a tossup which is one of the main reasons why I'm betting half.

Dodgers/Brewers Under 8 -105
Pitchers: Lowe/Sheets

Sheets is close to unhittable when he's healthy and well, he's healthy. The Dodgers haven't hit that well on the road for whatever reason either. Lowe dominated this free-swinging Brew Crew a few times last year and he's bringing the same stuff to the table this time around. I see this one as a 3-2 or 4-2 type game.

mike0187 · Mar 30, 2007

I think the Nationals are awful....dont necessarily trust Dontrelle though either

good luck this season I like your input

JakeT. · Mar 30, 2007

mike0187 said:
I think the Nationals are awful....dont necessarily trust Dontrelle though either

good luck this season I like your input

Thanks bud. The Nats are a pretty piss poor team but given Dontrelle's struggles to pitch to them in the past and them being the home team, I think a shot on the doggy here is justified.

krh7 · Mar 30, 2007

jake, how have you done in baseball the last few years.....in terms of + or - units at the end of each season?

JakeT. · Mar 30, 2007

krh7 said:
jake, how have you done in baseball the last few years.....in terms of + or - units at the end of each season?

I don't have exact numbers since my girlfriend fried my hard drive on my old computer but these are pretty close estimates.

2002: +35
2003: +25
2004: +25
2005: +35
2006: -20

Last year was horrible. I just didn't have the same passion I had in previous years or this year. Thought I could slide by with a quick look and not the in-depth handicapping that made me cash in the past. I learned my lesson though.

I also only bet one unit a play so it doesn't look as nice as the guys who "bet" 50 and 100 units a game, but the results are very good.

JakeT. · Mar 30, 2007

Dsethi said:
good luck on the plays, i'm sure you'll do well this year---

I'm thinking Seattle's offense might surprise this year. Maybe not against the strong pitching in the AL West but I could see the additions of Vidro and Guillen really helping them out this year.
GL on the plays bro

I'm the king of betting futures a year early only to have my teams stink and then dominate the next year so if it means anything, Seattle was my surprise team last year that cost me a chunk of change. That means this year they will be very good... and they really should be good. They have the skill there.

JakeT. · Mar 30, 2007

Nice line movement on the Bo Sox/KC game. Got a line 10 cents better than the current one. Nothing else has moved yet though.

JakeT. · Mar 31, 2007

Another 5 cent move on the Nats line. It always feels good for the lines to work in your favor. If you get in early and the line move benefits you, there is probably close to a 58% expected win rate. Not saying to play line moves blindly, but if you can get in before and have it move like this, it's a very good sign.

JakeT. · Apr 1, 2007

One more bump for opening day. Good luck to everyone this year.

JakeT. · Apr 1, 2007

Lookin good.

My Mets/Cards total is half a run better.
Indians line is 5 cents better.
Royals line is 10 cents better.
Royals/Bo Sox Over is 5 cents better.
Nats line is 10 cents better.
Phillies line is 5 cents better.

My two unders haven't moved either way. Very good start with the line movement.

JakeT. · Apr 1, 2007

0-1 -.58

Not a good start. Figured the Cards could do more than that.

JakeT. · Apr 2, 2007

Dsethi said:
they should have, great defense by the Mets shut your play down...Mets really couldn't have played any better in the field.

Mets played great and Rolen looked as good as usual on a few plays. I always worry one of these injuries is gonna take something away from him but he always rebounds. Might be the best player in the league when you figure in defense.

JakeT. · Apr 2, 2007

Z's a stud. Great on both ends and younger without the health risks. He is close to overtaking him in year 2.

JakeT. · Apr 2, 2007

3-4 +.47

Not as much profit as I wanted but at least I was smart enough to only go half on two of the losses and KC came through easier than I figured.

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