Official Tony Stoffo underdog system thread- unless someone else is doing it

Iceman · Apr 1, 2007

I will track it here with others help. This is the one we all talked about in the Dsethi thread. If there is another thread like this than ditch this one but I did not see it.

Once again here are the 3 simple rules for this too work: (remember these plays are dogs only)

1) ELIMINATE any games that the dog is greater than +150

NEXT

2) Of the games still left, ELMINATE any games that involve a favorite that has won 3 or more games in a row or a dog that has lost 3 or more games in a row.

NEXT

3) Of the games still left, ELIMINATE any dog that is facing a pitcher from a favored team that is in the top 20 of the Sagarin NPERA in the USA today.

I am going to shop like crazy for the best prices on these plays as I think that is what will get you too the next level (not talked about enough) alot of plays will probably be at 5 Dimes overnite nickel lines (if I am still awake when they are up , LOL).

Word of warning: This is totally my oponion so take it for what it is worth, this system may have seen it's better days because of all the publicity it has been getting, decreasing value. I will not be betting much money doing this as it is not my style (following systems) but I know others have inquired about this so here is a good thread for discussion and a place to track it.

GOOD LUCK!!!!

namathfan · Apr 1, 2007

Ice thanks for taking the time to post the plays.

There have been 1577 plays the last 2 years with a 5 or 6% roi.

I don't think that oddsmakers are that concerned about those of us playing the Stoffo system. I still believe the vast vast majority of bettors play faves and look for the system to produce a profit again this year.

Great job with your "cutteresque" wagering the past several months, best of luck going forward.

Iceman....

:modemman:

Iceman · Apr 1, 2007

namathfan said:
Ice thanks for taking the time to post the plays.

There have been 1577 plays the last 2 years with a 5 or 6% roi.

I don't think that oddsmakers are that concerned about those of us playing the Stoffo system. I still believe the vast vast majority of bettors play faves and look for the system to produce a profit again this year.

Great job with your "cutteresque" wagering the past several months, best of luck going forward.

Iceman....

:modemman:

Thanks buddy.

Not sure I can transfer my "Cutteresque" style over into baseball successfully as that is ironically his best sport but I will die trying. We shall see.

Pumped up and ready to go.

Adam. · Apr 1, 2007

Just few words that I found on other forum about starting the system :

Last year, using this method you would have lost 4.32 units in the first three days..
Two years ago, using this method two years ago, you would have lost 3.79 units the first three days..
But don't start betting this system, until every team has played 3 games

Iceman · Apr 1, 2007

Adam. said:
Just few words that I found on other forum about starting the system :

Last year, using this method you would have lost 4.32 units in the first three days..
Two years ago, using this method two years ago, you would have lost 3.79 units the first three days..
But don't start betting this system, until every team has played 3 games

inetersting. I was actually going to look around and see when to start this. Now I know. Thanks.

trentmoney · Apr 1, 2007

i was thinking this over and am interested in your views...

if you're getting more than +150 and you're facing a pitcher that's NOT in the top 20, or lets say top 30, i would think this would be good value...

what about parameters of top 35 in AL and top 40 in the NL, which would be the top 2.5 pitchers per staff...that would equate to the back half of any rotation

in other words, if you're facing a pitcher in the back half of the rotation and getting more than +150 the value is probably good enough to play

thoughts??

also, is +100 a play in this system or not??

tendog · Apr 1, 2007

your variation may work, the only way to know would be to somehow backtrack it or chart it this year going forward. good luck, let me know if you find anything.

Iceman · Apr 2, 2007

trentmoney said:
i was thinking this over and am interested in your views...

if you're getting more than +150 and you're facing a pitcher that's NOT in the top 20, or lets say top 30, i would think this would be good value...

what about parameters of top 35 in AL and top 40 in the NL, which would be the top 2.5 pitchers per staff...that would equate to the back half of any rotation

in other words, if you're facing a pitcher in the back half of the rotation and getting more than +150 the value is probably good enough to play

thoughts??

also, is +100 a play in this system or not??

not a system player at all. So no real opinion on the above. More or less have my own style so don't want to get to locked into 1 way of picking games so I will mess with the Stoffo thing but the majority of my plays are not system oriented.

TheWolf · Apr 2, 2007

Hey Ice--- I cap games and start off pretty good every year before things fall apart in early May......Is there such a thing as a Pinny Lean for bases or anything that has been proven to work as far as watching line moves/ prices etc...?

Iceman · Apr 2, 2007

The Wolf said:
Hey Ice--- I cap games and start off pretty good every year before things fall apart in early May......Is there such a thing as a Pinny Lean for bases or anything that has been proven to work as far as watching line moves/ prices etc...?

HELL YES!!!!!!!

Will be attempting it every day, all baseball season.

billhill999 · Apr 2, 2007

Adam. said:
Just few words that I found on other forum about starting the system :

Last year, using this method you would have lost 4.32 units in the first three days..
Two years ago, using this method two years ago, you would have lost 3.79 units the first three days..
But don't start betting this system, until every team has played 3 games

I was going to suggest wait two weeks, good advice Adam.

TheWolf · Apr 2, 2007

Right, but does it work? I recall reading somewhere how guys struggled last year with it

Iceman · Apr 2, 2007

The Wolf said:
Right, but does it work? I recall reading somewhere how guys struggled last year with it

it won over 40 units (betting 1 unit a game) for the year most before June.

Iceman · Apr 2, 2007

Let me add: I put this up there for others. I will be placing around 20 bets a day every day all season on average. Most of my plays will be Pinny lean type stuff. I am not a big systems guy. This is just something to mess with.

TheWolf · Apr 2, 2007

What criteria did you use for your baseline for Pinny Lean with bases?

Iceman · Apr 2, 2007

The Wolf said:
What criteria did you use for your baseline for Pinny Lean with bases?

I am tweaking as we speak. More or less like all Pinny leans I want the number to be scalpable with Pinny number.

Tonite I had a St.Louis -1.5 +160 at a book (which lost) as Pinny was around -161 on the NY Mets +1.5.

I have about 9 different things I am messing with but this baseball season but everything plays off of getting numbers close to their apex. No capping, no opinion involved, mostly dogs and the pick mostly stems off of the lines I am getting. Most bettors I have noticed dont pay any (or enough) attention to the line in baseball and concern themselves way too much with who they think will win the game. I think that can be a big mistake and I hope to exploit it.

Iceman · Apr 2, 2007

going to bed for the nite. Good luck tomorrow.

Oh if anyone is playing this tomorrow Washington and LA Dodgers qualify as plays. I will start after 3 games.

TheWolf · Apr 2, 2007

Iceman said:
I am tweaking as we speak. More or less like all Pinny leans I want the number to be scalpable with Pinny number.

Tonite I had a St.Louis -1.5 +160 at a book (which lost) as Pinny was around -161 on the NY Mets +1.5.

I have about 9 different things I am messing with but this baseball season but everything plays off of getting numbers close to their apex. No capping, no opinion involved, mostly dogs and the pick mostly stems off of the lines I am getting. Most bettors I have noticed dont pay any (or enough) attention to the line in baseball and concern themselves way too much with who they think will win the game. I think that can be a big mistake and I hope to exploit it.

Thanks Ice Keep us updated as to how things work out for you. I got a month or so of my own plays before I need to go to Plan B.......

Yankees2007 · Apr 2, 2007

For those curious about the unders for a "pitcher's duel", there would have been 7 plays today. So far, you would have been 2-2-2, with one more still to be determined (LAA) as I'm writing this. So pretty much a wash.

CalvinTy · Apr 3, 2007

Ice, I'll be happy to help out a little bit. In case people want all the details by Stoffo, we can point anybody here to that Dsethi thread to my posts that I pasted word-by-word from Tony Stoffo.

So I will do this mini-bump of letting people know about those posts if they want a good read.

Program 9 - Baseball Underdog System (I broke it up into 4 posts)

Post 1
Post 2
Post 3
Post 4

Everyone, as I did mention in that thread, I did *not* play this system in the past so I wouldn't know more details/answers other than what Tony Stoffo wrote in his pamphlet in 2004.

OT: I love one of Stoffo's general money management programs that I owe it to you all to know more about. I'll share more about it when I get the chance to.

Cheers,

* CalvinTy