FHMESQ44, Wodering if you could look something up for me?

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Rx Wizard
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Followed and played along with another poster last year who swears up and down that if you take the morning line (the morning of, not the opener) of a dime line that if the number moves 10% away from that number it creates value and is a good play. It struggled in August so I ditched it and started betting football but I think it works as it makes all the sense. His theroy is the TRUE LINE is the morning line and when the public and others bet into it than it creates a BAD LINE and you take the value off it by fading the public.

For example here is how it work:
Cleveland -130 versus Oakland +120 morning of game: You would take Cleveland -117 or less (10% off of -130) or Oakland if the number hits +132 or more.

Chicago -152 versus St. Louis +142 morning of game: You woud take Chicago -137 or less and St. Louis +156 or higher. Those are the strike prices of 10% off morning line odds.

Is there a way to to figure this out? If so thanks. I know with injuries or pitcher scratches losses its accuracy but was wondering if you could crunch the numbers? If too much never mind. Thanks again and I enjoy your work, you are a huge asset to the forum.
 

Rx Wizard
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I will give you a few more examples as I don't want to confuse you.
Every game has a strike price for each team and that number is 10% better than morning line odds.


Detroit -122 vs Chicago -112
strike prices: Detroit -110 or Chicago +122

Boston -168 vs Tampa Bay +158
strike prices: Boston -151 or Tampa Bay +174

San Diego -150 vs LA Dodgers +140
strike prices: San Diego -135 or LA Dodgers +154
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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Sorry, I just got back from Vegas. I could figure it out easily if I had both lines. However, the data I have is from covers and is only the Pinny closing line. I wouldn't even know where to get the opening or morning lines to be able to compare. If anyone has both sets of lines I could easily figure it out once I get it into excel. More than happy to help if we can get the info.
 

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Sep 27, 2004
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guys

just signup for their free odds and vegasinsider will e-mail you the 7AM morning line daily. Every sport. It's been many years but i think that's why i was getting them.
GL
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
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just signup for their free odds and vegasinsider will e-mail you the 7AM morning line daily. Every sport. It's been many years but i think that's why i was getting them.
GL

We need historical morning lines. Any idea if they have them?
 

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