Followed and played along with another poster last year who swears up and down that if you take the morning line (the morning of, not the opener) of a dime line that if the number moves 10% away from that number it creates value and is a good play. It struggled in August so I ditched it and started betting football but I think it works as it makes all the sense. His theroy is the TRUE LINE is the morning line and when the public and others bet into it than it creates a BAD LINE and you take the value off it by fading the public.
For example here is how it work:
Cleveland -130 versus Oakland +120 morning of game: You would take Cleveland -117 or less (10% off of -130) or Oakland if the number hits +132 or more.
Chicago -152 versus St. Louis +142 morning of game: You woud take Chicago -137 or less and St. Louis +156 or higher. Those are the strike prices of 10% off morning line odds.
Is there a way to to figure this out? If so thanks. I know with injuries or pitcher scratches losses its accuracy but was wondering if you could crunch the numbers? If too much never mind. Thanks again and I enjoy your work, you are a huge asset to the forum.
For example here is how it work:
Cleveland -130 versus Oakland +120 morning of game: You would take Cleveland -117 or less (10% off of -130) or Oakland if the number hits +132 or more.
Chicago -152 versus St. Louis +142 morning of game: You woud take Chicago -137 or less and St. Louis +156 or higher. Those are the strike prices of 10% off morning line odds.
Is there a way to to figure this out? If so thanks. I know with injuries or pitcher scratches losses its accuracy but was wondering if you could crunch the numbers? If too much never mind. Thanks again and I enjoy your work, you are a huge asset to the forum.