How often does the runline matter? A question to baseball bettors

ensign_lee · Apr 1, 2007

I know in the NFL the points matter in around 1/5 games. In the NBA, about the same if you look over the numbers.

This is the first year that I'm going to attempt to handicap baseball, so I'd appreciate any help y'all could give me.

How often does the runline matter in baseball?

Thanks so much for all your help guys! Here's the chance to show you really know your stuff!

PO69 · Apr 1, 2007

In the National League, games tend to be MUCHHHH closer and will end o the 1 run quite often.

In the American League, I ALWAYS the favorite on the runline if that if my bet for that game

ensign_lee · Apr 1, 2007

Whoops, forgot one critical piece of information: I'm assuming runline = 1.5

But how much does it change if the runline is 2.5? 3.5?

2PLAYSMAX · Apr 1, 2007

Very important.

Especially when you can cash a -125 Rl versus chucking out -300 on a team when an Ace is pitching. Yeah sometimes the RL can kill you, but you keep more money on your side of the table much of the season.

As indicated above RL's cash a lot more in the AL.

winbet · Apr 1, 2007

I got my nuts squeezed by posting a topic on it which basically shows nobody has a clue. My findings are posted in the thread which roughly says if you think the total will be higher than what the books say then the Fav is a better bet on the R/L other than that the books have it covered. :drink:

2PLAYSMAX · Apr 1, 2007

winbet said:
I got my nuts squeezed

:shocked: sounds painful

Santo · Apr 1, 2007

Pretty much what Winbet said. If you want to know how much something matters, or is worth, on a major betting market, the books probably have it down pat.

Certainly better information than anyone will give you. If somebody knows there's a weakness somewhere, they're not posting that information at TheRX.

ensign_lee · Apr 1, 2007

Well I wasn't looking for a weakness persay, but some info to help cut losses and maximize winnings.

For instance, in the NFL, if I go withthe dog, I'm almost always on the M/L, and if I'm on the favorite, I'm ALWAYS on the spread. Little things that the books might underadjust to (like how I think the books underadjust the M/L's when they adjust the spreads).

I'm thinking that maybe the books underadjust their runlines when they modify the moneylines (since moneylines are the main bet of choice for baseball)

Thanks for the info, winbet. What was the title of your thread?

winbet · Apr 1, 2007

http://forum2.therx.com/showthread.php?t=472987

geno25 · Apr 1, 2007

never bet the home team on the run line.the disadvantage is you lose your bats in the botttom of the ninth.meaning if your team is winning there not batting in the bottom 9.

winbet · Apr 1, 2007

Forgot to say, lands on 1 30% of the time. 19% Home favs win by 1 11% lose by 1 , but then again I might bre pretending, ask Dub :drink:

fivedoorsdown · Apr 1, 2007

see alot of dogs losing by 1 tomorrow. becareful

ensign_lee · Apr 1, 2007

geno25 said:
never bet the home team on the run line.the disadvantage is you lose your bats in the botttom of the ninth.meaning if your team is winning there not batting in the bottom 9.

Didn't think about that. Thank you.

ensign_lee · Apr 1, 2007

winbet said:
http://forum2.therx.com/showthread.php?t=472987

Thanks winbet. I'm off to read it now.

ensign_lee · Apr 1, 2007

Winbet: I saw that you made that post because you were trying to sway people from taking the -1.5 .

I actually created this question with the question in mind of when it would be appropriate to take the +1.5 vs. the underdog m/l. How do you (or anyone else) feel about that?

winbet · Apr 1, 2007

I'm not swaying anyone from anything, its just a matter of knowing whether you are getting the correct odds on your opinion. Either way its only if your opinion on the total is different from the books that makes it value regardless of what you make the M/L. Then again I might be pretending, ask Dubpoet. :drink:

goodcall · Apr 1, 2007

I remember doing some work on this last year...check out post #213 for a little insight. I'll look at it more and try to figure out exactly what I was trying to do lol
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=383548&page=9

This is all dealing with dogs +1.5

newb411breaker19 · Apr 1, 2007

games end in one run around 30% of the time (i believe, not totally sure).. i read in the pinnacle pulse that laying the -1.5 runs is a better bet on small favorites than it is on larger favorites as they cover the spread more frequently. remember that at most shops you're betting into a 20 cent line on runlines so it's not as easy to find value. many times there is value on the moneyline but no value or less value on the runline

ensign_lee · Apr 2, 2007

goodcall said:
I remember doing some work on this last year...check out post #213 for a little insight. I'll look at it more and try to figure out exactly what I was trying to do lol
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=383548&page=9

This is all dealing with dogs +1.5

Thank you goodcall. That was very helpful.

CapNWatch · Apr 2, 2007

28% of the games end in 1 run games.

How often does the runline matter? A question to baseball bettors

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