MLB: Tuesday April 3rd Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

Padres @ Giants
Play: Padres +109
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
Wrong team favored here and I am not surprised. It seems like linesmakers are putting too much stock into Peavy’s sub par season last year, as I am viewing it as more of a fluke season stemmed from the WBC and nagging injuries that prevented him from getting into any kind of rhythm. He is far too talented to not bounce back and put forth a dominating year, and if Spring was any indication, it looks like my prediction is right on par. Tuesday is a good spot for Peavy to open the season strong, as he faces a team that he has had past success against. The Giants lineup did not get any better in the off season, only older. Adding Aurillia to protect Bonds is a waste, and his bat using up the first base spot is as well. He, like Feliz and Durham, are Giants infielders that have really struggled against Peavy in the past. If Bonds wants to start the regular season where he left off during Spring, he will have to do it against a pitcher that he has a lifetime average of .250. Although the value of aces is diminished by the smaller early season pitch count, that is not the case for the Padres, as Peavy is backed by the deepest and best bullpen in the National League, which should make it hard for the Giants to score throughout this game.

Zito and his overpaid salary make their debut. Although he is one of the more mentally strong pitchers in the league, the added pressure he is under on opening day (new team and big salary) may potentially be a hindrance. Zito’s “stuff” and Whip is far from your typical ace, and his reliance on taking advantage of a lack of patience of opposing batters may be a problem against this Padres lineup. Zito has actually struggled in his career against the left handed hitters he has faced, which could be a problem when facing a lineup who has four hitters from the left side, especially in a somewhat hitter friendly park for left handed pull hitters. Zito is a workhorse, but his pitch count will be monitored closely. This does not bode well for the Giants, as they are protecting him with one of the worst bullpens in baseball, giving the Padres a decisive advantage in the later innings. The Padres don’t have a potent lineup, but are one of the few teams who hit better on the road. In my opinion, the Padres have a slightly better chance of winning this game, so getting basis points in compensation for betting them is generous.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

Dodgers @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -127
Intrinsic Value: -166
Consider Betting Price: -154
Comment:
This is the second day in a row in which the Brewers are extremely undervalued. Again, I don’t expect the Brewers market price to be set below their intrinsic value on a consistent basis, as this is a favorable situational spot that is not fully reflected in the market price. If one plans to bet on Capuano, they should do it early in the season, as last year, he once again showed to be a different pitcher after the break as his arm wore down. However, it has been three straight years now the Capuano has quietly become one of the more dominant first half pitchers in the league. He is also a Jeckel and Hyde pitcher when it comes to pitching at home and away, as his career home ERA is nearly a run lower, 3.82. He had no problem with the Dodgers last year, and could be a pitcher that may be hard to adjust to after Sheets, who has a completely different look for hitters. Thanks to Sheets performance, he is also backed by a bullpen that is better rested compared to their counter parts.

Not sure why books are giving such respect to Wolf, he hasn’t shown any resemblance of the pitcher he once was prior to his injuries. Last year was a completed disaster, and until he proves to return to somewhere near the level he once was pitching, I remain skeptical. Wolf’s curve, his most dominant pitch in the past, is not nearly as effective, which bodes well for an overaggressive lineup like the Brewers. The Brewers have the decisive edge in southpaws in this game, and coupled with the fact that both teams are far better at home, the Brewers appear to have a lot of value in this game.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

Pirates @ Astros
Play: Pirates +161
Intrinsic Value: +126
Consider Betting Price: +141
Comment:
On Monday, I took a position on the Astros as I deemed them slightly undervalued. On Tuesday, that is just no the case, as there is not another favorite on the card coming with more of an inflated price tag. Jennings is the second pitcher on this card coming off an overpaid signing and is becoming accompanied with an overpriced price tag. Aide from last years big season, Jennings has yet to show anything, as prior to last year, he put forth three straight seasons with a five plus ERA. Many are expecting better numbers this year now that he has escaped Coors, yet he actually put forth better numbers at home last year. Jennings high whip can be a detriment to any of his starts, and his propensity to give up walks is the last thing you want against a lineup that has a hard time getting runners on base via the hit. Jennings has been a horrific indoor pitcher, including horrible performances in his new home park, as he has allowed 22 runs in just 19 innings pitched here. Lidge proved again on opening day that his problems are far from over. Although there is not much to like about the Pirates lineup, especially without Sanchez, they have a potentially intriguing spot to do damage on an overpriced pitcher.

Not many people know about Snell, but this kid has a ton of upside potential. When on, he has the stuff to dominate and overpower any lineup, making him a live dog. Snell was one of the few pitchers last year that actually put forth far better numbers away from the home crowd. His sub four road ERA and low four night ERA is far better than his aggregate numbers. Being backed by a decent bullpen and the Pirates have a chance to pull off a potential upset. Although I feel they have a greater chance of losing this game, they have a much better chance of winning compared to what the current odds reflect.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -129
Intrinsic Value: -198
Consider Betting Price: -183
Comment:
One might think that this intrinsic value is way too high, but my valuation shows that the Rockies warrant being in the range of where teams that have dominant aces on the mound usually trade for. Although Hernandez’s problems in recent years has been more of a product of a mental deficiency rather than a fundamental problem, which he appears to have fixed since joining the Diamondbacks, it appears that he will have both psychological and fundamental variables to overcome in this game. Hernandez has never pitched well in Coors, and it is no coincidence, as his style of pitching is counterproductive in the thin air. His finesse style of pitching makes his pitches vulnerable to being left up in the strike zone, which has led him to generate horrific lifetime numbers in this park. He comes into today’s game with a lifetime 8 ERA in this park after over 60 innings of work here. Things shouldn’t get any easier for him in this game, as he is up against the most talented Rockies lineup in years. I said prior to season’s start that the Rockies have a top five lineup in the National League, and yesterday they proved it by roughing up one of the best pitchers in baseball. Tuesday they have a good shot to put forth back to back impressive games, and should face favorable pitching throughout this game, as Hernandez is backed by a sub par bullpen.

Francis is a young southpaw with a lot of upside. Last year we got a glimpse of what is expected in years to come as he put up solid numbers, but should actually improve from those numbers this year. He has a nice sinkerball in his arsenal of pitchers, a huge plus in a spacious outfield. He was able to keep the ball down last year at Coors, only allowing nine homer runs in ninety innings of work. He also showed to have the upper hand against the Diamondbacks lineup, as they managed just a .190 average against him in four starts. This is the second straight game in which the Rockies are not getting the respect they deserve, and I will continue to play them until they do.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

Orioles @ Twins
Play: Twins -129
Intrinsic Value: -141
Consider Betting Price: -131
Comment:
This is one of the more intriguing match ups of the day, as it showcases two young prospects on the mound, both with completely different styles. Bonser is a control pitcher who was actually the touted prospect in the Liriano deal from the Giants. Although he started last year in unimpressive fashion, he showed his true potential by finishing of the season putting together 10 quality starts. Bonser put forth his best work in the dome, and did a solid job limiting his walk total and forced the opposition to beat him. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball should force the Orioles to score their runs early. The Orioles lineup is much more potent at home, didn’t do much against Bonser in their only game against him last year, and might have a hard time adjusting to him after facing Santana last night.

Caberera might have the most electric stuff in baseball, but his problem has always been locating his pitches. Caberera is a pitcher that really has to find his rhythm, and if his first start last year was any indication, he will have a hard time finding it on Tuesday, as he opened up last season pitching one inning and allowing seven runs. The Twins lineup has patient hitters that will force you to throw strikes, which is the exact approach you want against Cabrera. In his two starts against the Twins last year, he walked nine in just 12 innings. He is also a pitcher that is heavily dependent on the home plate umpire. When up against a small strike zone, Carbrera is in trouble, and that is exactly what he will be up against tomorrow with Bucknor, who doesn’t give anything to a pitcher that can’t locate consistently. The Orioles bullpen improved over the off season, but still is nowhere near the level of the Twins, giving the Twins the pitching edge throughout this game.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

Rangers @ Angels
Play: Angels -145
Intrinsic Value: -176
Consider Betting Price: -162
Comment:
This is the second day in a row that the Angels are coming with some nice value even when they are a decent sized favorite. It is appears there exists psychological anchoring when it comes to the Rangers lineup and the reputation they have had as being one of the most potent in the league over the last few years. With a 4-9 lineup that is one of the most anemic in the league, that is simply not the case this year. Escobar has put up ace like numbers the last three years but doesn’t get the credit he deserves by linesmakers. When he is healthy, he could dominate, and aside from a minor back sprain a couple of weeks ago, Escobar is coming into this game fresh. Although he put forth unimpressive numbers against the Rangers last year, those numbers are very misleading and value creating numbers, as he has actually had the upper hand against every big bat in the lineup that he will have to face, including the likes of Texeria and Blaylock, who come into this game with a combined 8 for 51 history against their counterpart. Being backed by and elite bullpen, and this will be the second straight game in which the Rangers will have to face some tough pitching from start to finish.

Padilla has the stuff to be one of most dominant pitchers in baseball, but has the mental makeup of someone that doesn’t belong in the big leagues. Put those two variables together, and you get an inconsistent pitcher that has never lived up to his potential. The Angels gave Padilla fits last year, and had no problem hitting him, which is a concern for a pitcher that has a higher rate of allowed baserunners via the walk compared to the league average. There aren’t many lineups in the league more dependent on one hitter compared to the Angels relying on Guerrero, so when he has a favorable match up, the Angels chances increase. He dominated Padilla last year. The Angels small ball can take advantage of the high rate of walks as well. Padilla’s lack of control causes him to accumulate a high pitch count early, forcing him to leave games prematurely, which is also a concern for an injured bullpen that lacks depth.

Jibba · Apr 3, 2007

Picks look good Buffet. Lot of favorites today. Love the Padres and Rockies picks but am on them all with you. BOL.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 3, 2007

It takes a ton of time to do what you do. Thanks for the effort. Do you plan on tracking your results in your thread?? (Just a thought)

Travis

Jibba · Apr 3, 2007

OSUCOWBOYS said:
It takes a ton of time to do what you do. Thanks for the effort. Do you plan on tracking your results in your thread?? (Just a thought)

Travis

Yeah ... the last thing I want to do is hassle you Buffet, but I was wondering this myself. Obviously you put in a lot of time as is so I didn't see it as a big deal if you can't spare even more time to track your record.

But I was wondering, are all your bets 1 unit? I notice some of your plays have much more value when considering the lines you put on them. For example, you have the Rockies play tonight at -129, but an intrinsic value of -198 and a consider betting price of -183. Compared to the lines you posted for the Twins game, it would seem this would be more value and possibly a larger wager. Thanks and BOL.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

Since sports gambling forums made a satire with regards to handicapping and recording keeping (with people keep throwing out 100 and 1000 unit plays), I chose not to track my performance on forums, as I find record keeping on forums useless and misleading. Until there exists a more stringent unitary benchmark and the record keeping shenanigans are curtailed (will never happen as it seems that sports gambling posters need a lot more attention than your typical handicapper) I will not partake in such. You are more than welcomed to track my record on your own, and in honor of these forums, you could add a few zeros on the units of all my bets.

In regards to the second question, I use a hybrid % of bankroll money management strategy, implying that on any given day, the amount bet to win is the same for each team (but the nominal amount is subject to change over the course of the season). Therefore, the nominal amount varies based on the context of the bankroll and not a subjective variable like perception of how much value. I employ a reasonable margin of safety on all my bets, so I feel I am getting enough value on each one of my bets, and don’t think a fluctuation on my bet size is warranted by a Kelly criterion strategy. Anyone with a strong mathematical background will know that when using a % of bankroll method, variance is your worst nightmare, and a Kelly criterion approach adds just that. Employing such a strategy may add to your expected return, but actually lowers your expected risk adjusted return, and any investment should be measured by the latter.

Good luck.

im2bz4yaa · Apr 3, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Since sports gambling forums made a satire with regards to handicapping and recording keeping (with people keep throwing out 100 and 1000 unit plays), I chose not to track my performance on forums, as I find record keeping on forums useless and misleading. Until there exists a more stringent unitary benchmark and the record keeping shenanigans are curtailed (will never happen as it seems that sports gambling posters need a lot more attention than your typical handicapper) I will not partake in such. You are more than welcomed to track my record on your own, and in honor of these forums, you could add a few zeros on the units of all my bets.

In regards to the second question, I use a hybrid % of bankroll money management strategy, implying that on any given day, the amount bet to win is the same for each team (but the nominal amount is subject to change over the course of the season). Therefore, the nominal amount varies based on the context of the bankroll and not a subjective variable like perception of how much value. I employ a reasonable margin of safety on all my bets, so I feel I am getting enough value on each one of my bets, and don’t think a fluctuation on my bet size is warranted by a Kelly criterion strategy. Anyone with a strong mathematical background will know that when using a % of bankroll method, variance is your worst nightmare, and a Kelly criterion approach adds just that. Employing such a strategy may add to your expected return, but actually lowers your expected risk adjusted return, and any investment should be measured by the latter.

Good luck.

Excellent post, Buff. I can't agree with you more on tracking and the money management. Thanks again for the writeups, as I've missed them so much during the off season. The new "intrinsic value/considered betting price" for this season makes it all the better.

Continued good luck to you and may this be a profitable season for us all.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

2BZ,
Thanks. Its a shame people elect to deviate from proper tracking, but expecting different is simply wishful thinking. I have always handicapped baseball with intrinsic values, but elected to inlcude it this year in my write up, as I have noticed a lot of cappers disregard price and value in their handicapping proccess.

Have a great season.

PickoPedia · Apr 3, 2007

i love your write-ups buffett...keep them coming throughout the season please, with you on pads

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 3, 2007

AsI will be a "coat tailer" all season long I will gladly track it in the thread daily. It will be only a rough figure based upon $100 units. (Not based on a percentage of BR like you actually bet). I am not going to post a W-L record as I feel it is pointless in Baseball. If you DO NOT want this done tell me anytime and I will stop immediately.

YTD = +.68 units

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

Adding two more plays, as current line movement has allowed these teams to hit my price target.

Mets @ Cardinals
Play: Mets +106
Intrinsic Value: -107
Consider Betting: +105
Comment:
The Mets make for a compelling road underdog, as their NL best lineup is actually much more potent on the road, where their power can be better utilized in more hitter friendly confines. This holds especially true against a starting pitcher that has not put forth a solid year in four years. He has been extremely hittable since his injuries, a problem that will be magnified against a lineup this deep and potent. His control problems have always been a concern, but has been a bigger problem in recent years, which will force him to pitch from the stretch against the heart of the Mets lineup. The Mets are stacked from the left side of the plate and could do damage on any right handed pitcher, especially one who has a .280 career OBA against hitters from the left side. Wells has never been known as an innings eater and this early in the season, this problem will hold especially true. With Wainwright and Looper in the rotation, the Cardinals bullpen lacks depth and is a concern when backing a 90 pitch pitcher. The Mets should put up runs in this game.

Hernandez can always be a liability on the mound, but I tend to like him most early in the season. The reason is that he has the highest speed disparity amongst his pitches, which is a big asset early in the season when hitters timing are off. He pitched well with the Mets last year, and has always been equally effective pitching on the road. He is hard on right handed hitters and vulnerable against left handed bats. Facing a lineup that isn’t a threat from the left side should work in his favor. Being backed by a top tier and deep bullpen will give the Mets more leverage in pulling the plug on him early.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2007

A’s @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -108
Intrinsic Value: -124
Consider Betting Price -112
Comment:
Late money on the A’s has allowed the Mariners to hit my price target, enabling me to play them for the second straight game. Expect Washburn to bounce back from a disappointing season last year, which should be stemmed by impressive home numbers. When on the Angels, Washburn loved visiting this park, and he continued that tendency last year when joining the team, putting forth an impressive 3.54 home ERA last year. Although the A’s got to him last year, he has actually had the upper hand on most of the hitters he will have to face in this game. His finesse style of pitching should be hard for the A’s to adjust to after seeing Hernandez last night, especially since their timing looked really off. The A’s lineup might be the worst in their league, a deficiency that doesn’t warrant the respect linesmakers are giving them.
Blanton was a major disappointment last year, and until he can prove capable of rebounding from such an off year, I remain skeptical. He has been known to start seasons slowly, and has been very hittable on the road throughout his career. He continues to put on weight, and is nowhere near the power pitcher he was in college. His solid career numbers against the Mariners is not represented by his lifetime numbers by their players, as he has not shown to have the upper hand against any of their hitters and has in fact struggled against some. The Mariners lineup is more talented and better rounded, and are backed by a live crowd.

buffettgambler · Apr 4, 2007

OSU,
You are more than welcomed to do whatever you chose, but I am not sure how closely it resemble my performance. Keep in mind, I may add plays throughout the day, so your plays may not exactly coincide with mind (like tonight).
Good luck.

tvbi · Apr 4, 2007

...thank you for all the winners:toast: much appreciated.

teazeman · Apr 4, 2007

excellent job as i expected, many here would do well to red and try and understand better the manner in which you handicapp. solid indeed!

im2bz4yaa · Apr 4, 2007

:monsters-
That's sick Buff, 8-0??? Can't give the books just one? I guess I'm going to start fading you now. Hah...j/k.

Good luck as the amount of money you put on each game is going to skyrocket....