Boxslayer's MLB 2007 (0-0, +0.00)

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

Welcome to Slaya’s MLB 2007. Baseball and Football are my sports, with basketball a distant 3<SUP>rd</SUP>. I am a baseball junkie with a has-been college playing career. Love the game, and feel I can do my small part in helping the forum out as a reliable source. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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Capping baseball is slightly different than capping other sports. But at the base of it all, you are always just trying to put yourself in +EV, high percentage situations that are favorable to you. I typically don’t lay heavy chalk, I try and stay below -150, and I play a lot of underdogs. But where there is value, there is value, and if I think there is value in a -300 game, I may play one every now and then. Baseball, however, is the one sport where you can play underdogs and be very successful. <o

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It is a marathon, and you need to maintain focus throughout the course of the long season, stay selective, know each team’s starting pitcher, and BULLPEN – among other things. <o

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Enough of the bullshit. Good luck to all.<o

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2* <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> Brewers -132<o></o>
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<st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City> is a team that I will be playing frequently this season. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1

lace></st1:City> is another. These are two teams with big time young talent, and some underrated pitchers with lots of value. Chris Capuano is one of them. This guy lead the major leagues last year in quality starts with 25, and that is all you can ask for when you bet on a team: Get a good effort out of your starter, and Cap does that more consistent than anyone in the bigs. If you don’t want to bet on <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City> in this game, IMO, you do not fade baseball’s most consistent starter. A quality left-hander like Cap should be in the 160’s minimum – but he is still getting no respect pitching in a small market like <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City>. Big market <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Los Angeles</st1

lace></st1:City>, with their aging big names, keep this line reasonable without getting too chalky. Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez are the symbols of this Dodger team: aging players approaching or in their 40’s facing the new wave of baseball. It is no coincidence that <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City>’s game yesterday was described by their manager as the best game he has ever seen a team play. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City> scored in nearly every inning. With Sheets going the distance for a CG, the Beermakers have their full bullpen at their disposal.<o

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I typically love fading teams off blowout wins, but last night’s win for <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City> wasn’t a blowout. It was just a solid, well played game – and I think they continue that tonight. <o

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With power slugger Carlos Lee a goner, this Brewers team has great young talent, many of which are not big power threats/aggressive swingers, and they will have success against newly aquired left-hander Randy Wolf who doesn’t over power you with the fastball. Chris Cap signed a one year extension, in a contract year, facing the newly acquired Wolf with the pressure to perform right away at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City>. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City> has won 2 straight games to open the season 3 years in a row, they look to make it 4, and was 10-3 last year after winning series home openers. <o

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are a team that will be overvalued and getting too much credit because of good rotation, but their lineup is questionable. Rafael Furcal is the ultimate catalyst, and the Dodgers will struggle until he comes back.<o

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<st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1

lace></st1:City> 6<o

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<st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Los Angeles</st1

lace></st1:City> 3 <o

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Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

1* San Diego/San Fran under 7.5 +120

I'm a huge Jake Peavy fan, and after a disappointing season in which he battled tendinitis last year, I'm not sure there are many pitchers in baseball looking to get off to a fresh start more than Peavy. This season couldnt have come soon enough. Although it's an away game, the Pads stay in Cali and visit their old manager Bochy. Peavy was burnt out last year from Team USA and the whole deal. So Peavy has a new manager, a new season, a fresh start I think he's ready to return to form this season and get back to his dominant self. His fastball is disgusting with great run and sink. He gets Kevin Brown-like movement, that will run in on the hands of right handed batters and away from the short porch in right field.
San Francisco's lineup isn't getting any younger. 9 guys are in their 30's. Ray Durham *gulp* protects Bonds in this lineup. Too many old players facing a young gun pitcher here. San Diego has historically been an under team and their lineup isn't too great either.
They face off against Barry Zito, making the shift to the national league and he should have some success early with his big looping 12 to 6 breaking ball. Zito has a tendency to overthrow on the fastball, his release point is high and he can leave balls up in the zone, but I dont think the Pads have the heavy hitters to make him pay.
Two good pitchers, one ready for a fresh start, the other gets to face new hitters. Both teams should struggle at the plate today, IMO, and I'll take my chances here at +120.

San Diego 3
San Francisco 2

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 3, 2007

Good luck today and throughout the Season...Congrats to you on another Championship last night, the boys earned it and the better team one...Before I read this I sent you a few messages, alot which coincides with what you have here, so take a peep when you get a chance.

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

1* San Diego Padres +105
(see above)

Getting both at + money, so even a split works for me.

Jadyn · Apr 3, 2007

thanks for the great write-ups. Im on them with you!

TomorrowsNewspaper · Apr 3, 2007

Agree on everything. It's my card except I laid off Milw even though my systems did have it as a play. Looking forward to your input this year. You have a very solid knowledge of the game and how to cap it.

Have a great season.

tn

slick69 · Apr 3, 2007

Box,

Do you cap college baseball during the regular season? In particular the SEC.

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

PyRo CaPPer said:
Good luck today and throughout the Season...Congrats to you on another Championship last night, the boys earned it and the better team one...Before I read this I sent you a few messages, alot which coincides with what you have here, so take a peep when you get a chance.

Time to face the harsh reality that the Gators own you. Don't feel alone though, they own college athletics. :aktion033

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

Jadyn said:
thanks for the great write-ups. Im on them with you!

You're very welcome. In a great mood today after my boys got it done last night in hoops. Good luck

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

Tomorrow's Newspaper said:
Agree on everything. It's my card except I laid off Milw even though my systems did have it as a play. Looking forward to your input this year. You have a very solid knowledge of the game and how to cap it.

Have a great season.

tn

Very kind words coming from quite possibly the best baseball capper here. Good luck in 2007.

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

slick69 said:
Box,

Do you cap college baseball during the regular season? In particular the SEC.

My man, I am damn-near flawless in college baseball. There is no way to say this without sounding like a cocky asshole, so I'll just say it: It's the only thing in my life that I feel there is not one person on planet earth can do better than me. I've been posting my college plays every year, and it is the time of year where I throw units out the window and triple my account. All my old plays are documented, and my "locks" are something like 22-3 the past 3 years. Actually, nobody wacks off to midget porn more than me. So that's two things. :missingte :bunnies:

I'll be posting college plays, stay on the lookout. The sport is growing, ESPN's bottom line is showing scores, books are offering more and more regular season games. Just waiting to pick my spot.

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

1* Arizona/Colorado over 10 -120

This play stands out to me as a good solid play for tonight.

Livan Hernandez is historically a very slow starting pitcher. His career pre-all star ERA is in the 4's. As we all know from his Marlin days and "I Lub You Miami", this guy does have a tendency to step up during the post-season. However, at age 32, Livan is on the downside of his career, is a historic slow starter, and is pitching at his top 3 worst venues - Coors Field. Coors has been unkind to Livan's stat sheet, and I think that continues tonight. Obviously, you gotta love playing overs at Coors with that thin air, but these totals are typically set with that factored in. Tonight at 10, I don't see it.
These two teams played a back and forth game last night with an 8-6 final. I think the tone was set last night for this game, and I think both teams come out swinging. Livan has a tendency to leave the ball up, and he could see a few leave the yard tonight.
Jeff Francis is a solid pitcher, but I think he struggles tonight as well as Arizona should answer the offensive runs by Colorado. Some of these D-Back hitters have had good success vs. Francis. I'm not a big fan of the Rockies bullpen, and I think Zona will battle in this game.

Colorado 7
Arizona 5

slick69 · Apr 3, 2007

Boxslayer said:
Boxslayer said:

My man, I am damn-near flawless in college baseball. There is no way to say this without sounding like a cocky asshole, so I'll just say it: It's the only thing in my life that I feel there is not one person on planet earth can do better than me. I've been posting my college plays every year, and it is the time of year where I throw units out the window and triple my account. All my old plays are documented, and my "locks" are something like 22-3 the past 3 years. Actually, nobody wacks off to midget porn more than me. So that's two things. :missingte :bunnies:

I'll be posting college plays, stay on the lookout. The sport is growing, ESPN's bottom line is showing scores, books are offering more and more regular season games. Just waiting to pick my spot.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I figured. I actually tailed you on a couple plays last year. They were chalky -300 ml plays, but you said they should be more like -2200. So I took a few and the final scores were 22-5. I'm looking for a book that offers regular season plays.

If you still know any players maybe you could nose around once in a while and get a feel for whether they are motivated to beat a team, or whether they don't give a rat's ass about the game and are pissed they have to travel 500 miles on a Friday when the whoriest sorority on campus is throwing a bash and they just wanna get drunk and get some puss.

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 3, 2007

Just got back in, way to start the year off with a bang! Sweep em' today...

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

slick69 said:
Yeah, I figured. I actually tailed you on a couple plays last year. They were chalky -300 ml plays, but you said they should be more like -2200. So I took a few and the final scores were 22-5. I'm looking for a book that offers regular season plays.

If you still know any players maybe you could nose around once in a while and get a feel for whether they are motivated to beat a team, or whether they don't give a rat's ass about the game and are pissed they have to travel 500 miles on a Friday when the whoriest sorority on campus is throwing a bash and they just wanna get drunk and get some puss.

Yeah, I play some college plays that can be chalky. Upsets happen every year, and I just know which teams will not be upset no matter what. Still, even without the chalk, I do very very well and have locks in regionals, super regionals and omaha. Played a few regular season games last year at the end of the year and did well.

I'll get you some winnas though. Stay patient because I'm still figuring some of these teams out. These games arent televised as much obviously, so I have been catching a few games here and there on the dish.

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 3, 2007

Prince just dropped a bomb for the BrewCrew and Pimped it haha....Ties it up early, Capuano with 68 pitches through 3...

gynecologist · Apr 3, 2007

Brewers will win cause I have the Dodgers and I suck at baseball..

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

gynecologist said:
Brewers will win cause I have the Dodgers and I suck at baseball..

:lol:

Boxslayer · Apr 3, 2007

PyRo CaPPer said:
Prince just dropped a bomb for the BrewCrew and Pimped it haha....Ties it up early, Capuano with 68 pitches through 3...

Prince IS a pimp

gotta get this over in colorado, both teams have had men on and serious ducks on the pond and nobody is cashing in and now they are about to strand a leadoff double

hiphop22 · Apr 3, 2007

Love the avatar Box. RBI baseball. I was the king of that game.

Boxslayer's MLB 2007 (0-0, +0.00)

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