Welcome to Slaya’s MLB 2007. Baseball and Football are my sports, with basketball a distant 3<SUP>rd</SUP>. I am a baseball junkie with a has-been college playing career. Love the game, and feel I can do my small part in helping the forum out as a reliable source. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
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Capping baseball is slightly different than capping other sports. But at the base of it all, you are always just trying to put yourself in +EV, high percentage situations that are favorable to you. I typically don’t lay heavy chalk, I try and stay below -150, and I play a lot of underdogs. But where there is value, there is value, and if I think there is value in a -300 game, I may play one every now and then. Baseball, however, is the one sport where you can play underdogs and be very successful. <o></o>
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It is a marathon, and you need to maintain focus throughout the course of the long season, stay selective, know each team’s starting pitcher, and BULLPEN – among other things. <o></o>
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Enough of the bullshit. Good luck to all.<o></o>
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2* <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> Brewers -132<o></o>
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<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> is a team that I will be playing frequently this season. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> is another. These are two teams with big time young talent, and some underrated pitchers with lots of value. Chris Capuano is one of them. This guy lead the major leagues last year in quality starts with 25, and that is all you can ask for when you bet on a team: Get a good effort out of your starter, and Cap does that more consistent than anyone in the bigs. If you don’t want to bet on <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> in this game, IMO, you do not fade baseball’s most consistent starter. A quality left-hander like Cap should be in the 160’s minimum – but he is still getting no respect pitching in a small market like <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City>. Big market <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Los Angeles</st1lace></st1:City>, with their aging big names, keep this line reasonable without getting too chalky. Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez are the symbols of this Dodger team: aging players approaching or in their 40’s facing the new wave of baseball. It is no coincidence that <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City>’s game yesterday was described by their manager as the best game he has ever seen a team play. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> scored in nearly every inning. With Sheets going the distance for a CG, the Beermakers have their full bullpen at their disposal.<o></o>
I typically love fading teams off blowout wins, but last night’s win for <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> wasn’t a blowout. It was just a solid, well played game – and I think they continue that tonight. <o></o>
With power slugger Carlos Lee a goner, this Brewers team has great young talent, many of which are not big power threats/aggressive swingers, and they will have success against newly aquired left-hander Randy Wolf who doesn’t over power you with the fastball. Chris Cap signed a one year extension, in a contract year, facing the newly acquired Wolf with the pressure to perform right away at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City>. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> has won 2 straight games to open the season 3 years in a row, they look to make it 4, and was 10-3 last year after winning series home openers. <o></o>
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a team that will be overvalued and getting too much credit because of good rotation, but their lineup is questionable. Rafael Furcal is the ultimate catalyst, and the Dodgers will struggle until he comes back.<o></o>
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<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> 6<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Los Angeles</st1lace></st1:City> 3 <o></o>
<o> </o>
Capping baseball is slightly different than capping other sports. But at the base of it all, you are always just trying to put yourself in +EV, high percentage situations that are favorable to you. I typically don’t lay heavy chalk, I try and stay below -150, and I play a lot of underdogs. But where there is value, there is value, and if I think there is value in a -300 game, I may play one every now and then. Baseball, however, is the one sport where you can play underdogs and be very successful. <o></o>
<o> </o>
It is a marathon, and you need to maintain focus throughout the course of the long season, stay selective, know each team’s starting pitcher, and BULLPEN – among other things. <o></o>
<o> </o>
Enough of the bullshit. Good luck to all.<o></o>
<o> </o>
2* <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> Brewers -132<o></o>
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> is a team that I will be playing frequently this season. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> is another. These are two teams with big time young talent, and some underrated pitchers with lots of value. Chris Capuano is one of them. This guy lead the major leagues last year in quality starts with 25, and that is all you can ask for when you bet on a team: Get a good effort out of your starter, and Cap does that more consistent than anyone in the bigs. If you don’t want to bet on <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> in this game, IMO, you do not fade baseball’s most consistent starter. A quality left-hander like Cap should be in the 160’s minimum – but he is still getting no respect pitching in a small market like <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City>. Big market <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Los Angeles</st1lace></st1:City>, with their aging big names, keep this line reasonable without getting too chalky. Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez are the symbols of this Dodger team: aging players approaching or in their 40’s facing the new wave of baseball. It is no coincidence that <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City>’s game yesterday was described by their manager as the best game he has ever seen a team play. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> scored in nearly every inning. With Sheets going the distance for a CG, the Beermakers have their full bullpen at their disposal.<o></o>
I typically love fading teams off blowout wins, but last night’s win for <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> wasn’t a blowout. It was just a solid, well played game – and I think they continue that tonight. <o></o>
With power slugger Carlos Lee a goner, this Brewers team has great young talent, many of which are not big power threats/aggressive swingers, and they will have success against newly aquired left-hander Randy Wolf who doesn’t over power you with the fastball. Chris Cap signed a one year extension, in a contract year, facing the newly acquired Wolf with the pressure to perform right away at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City>. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> has won 2 straight games to open the season 3 years in a row, they look to make it 4, and was 10-3 last year after winning series home openers. <o></o>
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a team that will be overvalued and getting too much credit because of good rotation, but their lineup is questionable. Rafael Furcal is the ultimate catalyst, and the Dodgers will struggle until he comes back.<o></o>
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1lace></st1:City> 6<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Los Angeles</st1lace></st1:City> 3 <o></o>