Jake's Picks - MLB Wednesday April 4th

Record will be updated after April 3rd games are finished. Currently stand at +.47 with a bunch of games pending.

Predicted AL Lines:

Yankees -330, O10 -120
Toronto -120, O8.5 -115
CHW -110, 8.5 Pk
Anaheim Pk, U9 -120
Minnesota -125, O10 -120
KC Pk, U9.5 -120
Oakland -115, U7.5 -120

Bets:

*Note: I'm not gonna touch the Cleveland/CHW line. Looks very fishy to me. Not sure I've ever been that far off on a total.

Toronto Blue Jays -105
Pitchers: Burnett/Robertson

The Blue Jays kill lefty pitchers and Robertson has had a horrible history against this club. He gives up runs every time he's faced em. Burnett is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game and can absolutely dominate at times. Detroit will get some runs but Toronto should get ALOT of runs and knock Detroit's starter out very early. Value on the road team.

Texas Rangers +130
Pitchers: McCarthy/Santana

People haven't seen much of McCarthy but he is a very solid pitcher and has put in very quality outings whenever he's pitched. Santana has pitched well against the Rangers when he is at home but he will yield a few runs. This game is a tossup and I'll take the +130 in a tossup situation anytime.

Kansas City Royals +145
Pitchers: Perez/Beckett

People don't realize how bad the Red Sox hit on the road. They also haven't been able to hit lefties well at all and Perez dominated them last season. Beckett is a fine pitcher and should do well, but the Royals hit great at home and will get some runs. This is a tossup game IMO and I'll be happy to ride the Royals as a dog once again, as I did in the opening game of this series.

Oakland/Seattle Under 8 -110
Pitchers: Harden/Batista

Pitchers' park and neither team has much of an offense to speak of. Harden is healthy and has been unhittable this spring and should dominate this Mariners' team he's dominated many times in the past. Batista is a solid pitcher and the move to a pitchers' park will make his stats look alot more presentable. Oakland doesn't have the bats to dominate him. Solid pens as well. This has 3-1 or 3-2 written all over it.

I'll do the rest at a later time. I need to head out.

Predicted NL Lines:

Florida -130, U8.5 -125
Arizona -115, O12 -115
Philly -130, O9 -120

Bets:

Washington Nationals +130
Pitchers: Chico/Sanchez

This should be a low-scoring game but I don't really want to lay -125 juice on the total. The Nats can't hit and Sanchez is a quality pitcher who did well against them last year. Chico is a guy who did well in the majors and has looked very good through the spring. This is his first major league start the Marlins don't hit lefties that well. Young guys typically do well their first go around the league so I think Chico pitches a quality game and keeps his team in it.

Arizona/Colorado Over 10.5 -115
Pitchers: Davis/Lopez

Colorado hits lefties well and generally crushes people at home. Davis is a quality pitcher but that offense should put up runs and you know the DBacks' bullpen won't help matters. Rodrigo Lopez was horrible while pitching in a normal park, how do you think he'll do in Coors? Poorly is the answer. He can't pitch anymore, his spring was horrible, and Zona should knock him out quickly. Lots of runs here.

Record: 5-8
Profit: -1.33

Dogs: 3-3 +1.3
Favs: 1-1 +1.45
Unders: 1-2 -2.35
Overs: 0-2 -1.73

Predicted NL Lines:

Cincy -130, U9.5 -120
Houston Pk, U9 -115
Milwaukee -130, U8.5 -115
Mets Pk, O9.5 -115
SF -115, U7.5 -125

Bets:

Pittsburgh Pirates +140
Pitchers: Gorzelanny/Williams

Woody Williams tapered off some toward the end of last season and you have to wonder if he still has it. Alot of the stats he put up were due to pitching in San Diego which is a pitchers' paradise. Gorzelanny did decently against the Astros last year and I've documented how horrible they hit lefties. I've ridden the Bucs in the first two games and cashed nice dog prices and they are once again a good bet.

Milwaukee Brewers +100
Pitchers: Suppan/Schmidt

The Dodgers haven't shown anything on offense and Suppan finished last year very well. The Brewers have hit well in their first two games and Schmidt is getting older and I'm not completely sold he will be as strong as he once was. At even money, I'll take the home team with the hot offense and a capable pitcher.

San Francisco/San Diego Under 7.5 -105
Pitchers: Cain/Young

Cain dominated the Padres four or five times last season. They barely could even get a hit against him and he should do well again. The Giants haven't hit in their first two games and Chris Young is one of the better no-name pitchers in baseball. Combine those two excellent starters with two average-at-best offenses and a pitchers' park and you have a 3-2 final.

Nice work, Jake

ppeter said:

Nice work, Jake

Click to expand...

Thanks bud. The early bird gets the worm. :drink:

Bump for the folks who missed it since I posted it so early.

Adding:

Marlins/Nats Under 9 -120
Pitchers: Sanchez/Chico

See above for reasoning. The line dropped 5 cents and presents more value than before. I've been debating whether or not I should go with it but I don't want to lay off any longer. I just can't see either team putting up many runs today.

Not the start I wanted. Burnett is getting hammered and now the Jays, who crushed Robertson a bunch of times last year, can't touch him.

Chico pitched like crap.

Gonna take the late games to get some profit today it appears.

jakethompson said:

Toronto Blue Jays -105
Pitchers: Burnett/Robertson

The Blue Jays kill lefty pitchers and Robertson has had a horrible history against this club. He gives up runs every time he's faced em. Burnett is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game and can absolutely dominate at times. Detroit will get some runs but Toronto should get ALOT of runs and knock Detroit's starter out very early. Value on the road team.

Click to expand...

I couldn't have agreed with you more! Jay's bats can't find the ball and AJ is throwing meat balls!!! :WTF:


:nohead:

Marcum didn't exactly help us out either. I think the Jays score some late runs but the deficit is probably too much to overcome.

At least the Nats are making a comeback, screwing my under in the process. If the Nats come in and can get the win, I'll be looking okay for late action.

Thank you Mr. Julio!

I needed that.

Now Toronto is even coming back. I go outside to do some yardwork and now everything looks much better. Maybe I should do yardwork from now on whenever it's not looking good.

-2.5 tonight. I still can't believe I lost my Sea/Oak under as Harden didn't allow a single run but the A's scored 9 by themselves as Batista was nice enough to balk home the last run which made the play a loss. Thank you Miguel.

I'll turn it around... it's only a matter of when. I say tomorrow sounds good.