"What is the BEST way to play MLB ??? Please post any formula, etc!

UncleSteve · Apr 3, 2007

Hey to you all. It's been a wild year already.

OK, here is my question = PLEASE respond if you have any desire to:

What is the BEST way to play MLB, baseball formula, pitching, etc ???

I would really like you baseball guys to speak up, I am listening, big time!

In the past, I usually try and go with the best pitcher and he must have a winning record and more wins and less losses than his opponent.

DOES ANYONE HAVE SOMETHING THAT WORKS FOR YOU ?????

Please post, as this will help everyone. Thanks in advance !!!!!!
(congrats to you guys who won last night, too)

Uncle Steve

Ramonskee · Apr 3, 2007

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=473548

Only ONE outcome makes that formula a loser. That being if the favorite wins by only 1 run. Every other outcome makes that formula a winner.

Bookie Buster · Apr 3, 2007

Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis

We are back with another edition of Gator's "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Report. This time we are taking a look at the upcoming 2007 MLB Season. Since the NBA is off until after the All-Star break and CBB is limited on Friday Night we thought it would be a good time to share some of our best MLB Systems with our readers. Of course once the season starts we will have all the qualifying selections for these and all of our 350+ MLB Systems. These systems take a look at when teams come in off a win/loss having had a certain number of hits, runs or men left on base or any combination of those. The numbers listed in () are our MLB System numbers, that is how they are listed in our data base, the records and units won are listed after each system.

(#GR1106) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite off a 5+ run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 34-15 +1155 units

(#GR1206) "Play On" any MLB Favorite off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 10+ hits and scored 4 or less runs. 41-24 +815 units

(#GR2806) "Play Against" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a win in a game in which they had 10+ hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 157-116 +2760 units

(#GR3206) "Play On" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a loss in which they had +10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 79-33 +2225 units

(#GR4606) "Play On" any MLB favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had at least 10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 89-41 +3085 units

(#GR4906) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a 2+ run loss in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 10 runners on base. 82-77 +3210 units

(#GR10706) "Play On" any MLB +140 or better Underdog whose opponent is off a win in which they had 10+ hits and scored at least 5 runs. 265-400 +4635 units

We will return with Part II of Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Report in our next issue of the E-Report Online so stay tuned.

Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Part II

(GR#806) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more that is coming in off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 44-19 +1080 units

(GR#906) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more that is off a loss in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and scored 5 or more runs. 74-31 +1760 units

(GR#1006) "Play Against" any MLB Home Underdog off a win in which they had a winning margin of at least 5 runs and had 10 or more hits. 51-94 +2375 units

(GR#1406) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 10+ hits and scored 4 or less runs. 19-6 +985 units

(GR#1606) "Play Against" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 5 or more hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 47-37 +1330 units

(GR#2706) "Play Against" any MLB Favorite off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 258-191 +1035 units

Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Part III

(GR#606) "Play On" any MLB Home Underdog in a division rivalry game with a line that is less than 200 and have won at least 6 of their last 10 games with a home win percentage of 55%+ and facing an opponent that has less than a 50% win percentage on the road. 40-20 +2685 units

(GR#3406) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a loss in which they had 10 or more hits and left 10+ runners on base. 172-210 +2410 units

(GR#4706) "Play On" any MLB -140 or more Favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 10 runners on base. 64-32 +920 units

(GR#6406) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a 1-run win in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 5 runners on base. 168-209 +1025 units

We hope that you have enjoyed our MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Reports. These systems should help put you in some profitable situations this baseball season and our goal is and has always been to try and help our clients and readers have the best possible edge in making their selections. Have a great sunday, be safe and as always good luck! Gator

UncleSteve · Apr 4, 2007

Ramonskee said:
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=473548

Only ONE outcome makes that formula a loser. That being if the favorite wins by only 1 run. Every other outcome makes that formula a winner.

Yes Ramonskee, thanks. I've looked into this before. Something I might experiment with, as well.

I wonder if the "winning by 1 run" dilemma is diminished somewhat by a game that has, say, a HIGH over/under, ex. 9-10 o/u. More runs expected is this game, instead of a close, pitching duel with an o/u of 6.7-7, where the likelyhood of a 1 run game is greater.

Anyone have any data on that ? If not, I'll start today and track this.

So, what we (me) are saying is = play it exactly like above, in this case:

METS 100/130
CARDS -1.5 (+155)

then

Go with higher OVER/UNDER total, starting at 9u and upward.

What do you think about that ? Want me to track that for a while ???

Im thinking the higher the total, the greater the chance of a wider margin of victory. If this pans out, then maybe add another factor in = two high-ERA pitchers going against each other. What ye think ????

want me to track it for a while ???

Uncle STeve in TexLand

uncle steve

UncleSteve · Apr 4, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis

We are back with another edition of Gator's "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Report. This time we are taking a look at the upcoming 2007 MLB Season. Since the NBA is off until after the All-Star break and CBB is limited on Friday Night we thought it would be a good time to share some of our best MLB Systems with our readers. Of course once the season starts we will have all the qualifying selections for these and all of our 350+ MLB Systems. These systems take a look at when teams come in off a win/loss having had a certain number of hits, runs or men left on base or any combination of those. The numbers listed in () are our MLB System numbers, that is how they are listed in our data base, the records and units won are listed after each system.

(#GR1106) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite off a 5+ run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 34-15 +1155 units

(#GR1206) "Play On" any MLB Favorite off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 10+ hits and scored 4 or less runs. 41-24 +815 units

(#GR2806) "Play Against" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a win in a game in which they had 10+ hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 157-116 +2760 units

(#GR3206) "Play On" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a loss in which they had +10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 79-33 +2225 units

(#GR4606) "Play On" any MLB favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had at least 10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 89-41 +3085 units

(#GR4906) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a 2+ run loss in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 10 runners on base. 82-77 +3210 units

(#GR10706) "Play On" any MLB +140 or better Underdog whose opponent is off a win in which they had 10+ hits and scored at least 5 runs. 265-400 +4635 units

We will return with Part II of Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Report in our next issue of the E-Report Online so stay tuned.

Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Part II

(GR#806) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more that is coming in off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 44-19 +1080 units

(GR#906) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more that is off a loss in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and scored 5 or more runs. 74-31 +1760 units

(GR#1006) "Play Against" any MLB Home Underdog off a win in which they had a winning margin of at least 5 runs and had 10 or more hits. 51-94 +2375 units

(GR#1406) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 10+ hits and scored 4 or less runs. 19-6 +985 units

(GR#1606) "Play Against" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 5 or more hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 47-37 +1330 units

(GR#2706) "Play Against" any MLB Favorite off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 258-191 +1035 units

Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Part III

(GR#606) "Play On" any MLB Home Underdog in a division rivalry game with a line that is less than 200 and have won at least 6 of their last 10 games with a home win percentage of 55%+ and facing an opponent that has less than a 50% win percentage on the road. 40-20 +2685 units

(GR#3406) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a loss in which they had 10 or more hits and left 10+ runners on base. 172-210 +2410 units

(GR#4706) "Play On" any MLB -140 or more Favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 10 runners on base. 64-32 +920 units

(GR#6406) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a 1-run win in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 5 runners on base. 168-209 +1025 units

We hope that you have enjoyed our MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Reports. These systems should help put you in some profitable situations this baseball season and our goal is and has always been to try and help our clients and readers have the best possible edge in making their selections. Have a great sunday, be safe and as always good luck! Gator

THANKS THANKS THANKS THANKS THANKS :aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033

Great info, I'm saving it as we speak.

Uncle Steve in TexLand

THEMASK · Apr 4, 2007

Those are exacly just like normal trends i dont know if you have to relly for sure on them..i think the best way to play baseball is:
favs with odds between -110 and -120 if fav has too many juice play RL
dogs with odds between +110 and +170.

IMO.

UncleSteve · Apr 4, 2007

THE MASK said:
Those are exacly just like normal trends i dont know if you have to relly for sure on them..i think the best way to play baseball is:
favs with odds between -110 and -120 if fav has too many juice play RL
dogs with odds between +110 and +170.

IMO.

Hey Mask. Are you saying play road dogs +110 to +170, and what is "RL", is that road Lefties?

And, if FAV -110 to-120 has too much Juice? Can you elaborate on that, as well?

Can you explain (it's early this morning) Thanks in advance.

Uncle STeve

THEMASK · Apr 4, 2007

No ..i wanted to say if you play simple picks you must have a plan:

If you are going to play on fav make sure they have value i meen not to have too much juice, that i why i play moneyline on favs only if odds are between -110 and -130 ..in the odds are bigger like -160 or -200 i play the Run Line to grab a better odd.
If you are going to play dogs make sure to have value so you can make some money on them, that is why i've set a barem for me whn playing dogs i want the odds to be not lower then +110 and not bigger then +170..cause then you dont know how many chances the dogs has to win that game, if you have seen the TB vs Yanks the Yankees wore -150 or more favorites and i've took them Run line just to grab a better odd and not to lose much money on that juice if Yanks would have lost the game ..Capischi?

That is my opinion if you decide to play baseball clasic as it is no systems or trends.

Dubpoet · Apr 4, 2007

My advice, Scrap all systems and read every box score and bet the games to win. If you lay big juice make sure its still value. No one is ever due to win either.

newb411breaker19 · Apr 4, 2007

Uncle Steve said:
THANKS THANKS THANKS THANKS THANKS :aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033

Great info, I'm saving it as we speak.

Uncle Steve in TexLand

this is just data-mining.. i'd be very wary of it

UncleSteve · Apr 4, 2007

So, in other words, nothing has changed much in the 30+ years I've been trying to beat the beanball guys.

Only thing I've come up with is this = When the AL starts playing the NL? Take every AL team in every game. DAmn, I won a ton of money last year, they won every game, almost. Good deal, look for that.

I just wish there was a way to feel comfortable with this baseball shit.

I mean, shit, Ive got the best pitcher ,the best team , and some jack-off comes in an gives up the victory and it's like "Oh well, that's the way it goes". Fuck all that.

Baseball is a pisser. I just get frustrated because you can't count on any 'perfect information'. It all changes every game.

I'd be better off writing a book, drinking some vodka martini's, taking a little bit of Cialis, getting ready, take a couple of Vikes, screw the hell outta my wife, then take the money I was gonna bet and go buy something with it = anything. At least, Id have something tangible, instead of winning or losing, then looking for the magic touch AGAIN tomorrow.

The never ending story = this gambling shit is a never ending story. Always a search for the 'answer'. So fucking what. EVEN if you DO have today's bad-ass, tomorrow is another risk.

Where does this shit end ????????????

It doesn't.

It never ends. Just gets in your mind. And, you feel accordingly to how you did. This is not for educated people. No. And, don't kid yourself thinking you are all that. fYou, you aint'./\\\\\\

Sad, but I'm giving up this never-ending shit. If I win, I keep going, IF I lose, I keep going. IF I win, same.

Run, Run , run and what in the fuck do you hope to gain ????????????????

What ????????????????

Uncle Steve (the light is shining bright, be honest wit yourself, HONEST)

newb411breaker19 · Apr 5, 2007

ucle steve here's a simple formula from bob mccune's book which shows you how to rate the teams.. there are two different methods bob talks about in his book, this is the much simpler method.

"an effective formula we use is to first take the batting average and add it to the on-base percentage and divide by 2. This becomes FACTOR A. FACTOR B is determined by taking the total bases, times runs scored, divided by games played. FACTOR A + Factor B becomes FACTOR C. The final power index number is achieved by dividing factor C by runs allowed."

All of the information that you will need to use can be found on USATODAY's website, just go to the baseball stats section and click on the archives and you can get many of the past season's stats.. i think it's under "team batting/pitching statistics"

Now you have an overall power number but then you need to figure out an estimated runs allowed by both teams. I like to use XERA or FIP ERA as it has more predictive power than regular ERA.. I estimate how many innings the starter will pitch.. if i say he pitches 6 innings i take 6/9 * XERA.. then i find the bullpen's home or road ERA and multiply that by (3/9).. Now you must also account for unearned runs. On the usatoday site just take runs - earned runs, and divide that number by the amound of games played.
If you are betting on totals you need to make an adjustment for the effects of the ballpark.. that equation i can find for you, it is in michael murray's book, "betting baseball".
So if i figure out that the yankees are going to give up 4.6 runs i take their team index number (the first equation) and divide that number by 4.6 and lets say i end up with a number of 38.9 (this is the number i have for today's game with pettite pitching). And for the devil rays i have a number of 17.57.. I take 38.9/17.57 and that gives me 2.21.. then i had a home field advantage of 11 cents (home field is generally 18 cents but the pitching numbers i use take home and road into account) so now for this actual game i have a line of Yankees -232, devil rays +232.
Now for bet sizing purposes i use a conservative kelly criterion fraction.. i use 1/6 kelly because i don't plan on going broke.. so let's assume my bankroll is 1000 dollars.. the proper kelly bet at 1/6 kelly with my line of +232 and the line i'm betting into at let's say +260 would be $5.28.. using kelly your bets on large underdogs are going to be much smaller than bets on favorites...it is mathematically sound however.
You need to be able to make subjective adjustments to your line as well.. how does one team fare against left handed pitchers? how good is team A on the road? in day games? etc etc.. so you would make your adjustments to the line by either adding cents for the favorite or taking away cents.
I hope this helps you

hopefully you have a program like excel to do most of the work for you

newb411breaker19 · Apr 5, 2007

so far using basically this method, i'm up about 5.5 units on moneylines on the games i have chosen to bet. this method obviously becomes a lot more accurate when you can use statistics from the current season. If teams made significant improvements during the offseason then it would be important to adjust last year's team index number or to just not bet on those games yet. For instance, i have yet to bet on cubs games because i want to wait and see just how good they are

JimmieJ · Apr 5, 2007

I have a question tooo.....
How do you figure MLB parlays with the different money lines ?
Thank's

newb411breaker19 · Apr 5, 2007

jimmieJ, www.smartcapper.com i believe has a parlay calculator that allows you to put in various lines and see what your payout will be. I think that is your question, am i right?

thefivehorse · Apr 5, 2007

Play on any pitcher with 3 or more starts pitching at home with an ERA advantage of greater than or equal to 2 runs over his opponent's starter.

JimmieJ · Apr 5, 2007

Thank You...NEWB

viccas · Apr 5, 2007

newb411breaker19 said:
so far using basically this method, i'm up about 5.5 units on moneylines on the games i have chosen to bet. this method obviously becomes a lot more accurate when you can use statistics from the current season. If teams made significant improvements during the offseason then it would be important to adjust last year's team index number or to just not bet on those games yet. For instance, i have yet to bet on cubs games because i want to wait and see just how good they are

newballbreaker19 you should post your plays :toast:

Bet-It-All · Apr 5, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis

We are back with another edition of Gator's "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Report. This time we are taking a look at the upcoming 2007 MLB Season. Since the NBA is off until after the All-Star break and CBB is limited on Friday Night we thought it would be a good time to share some of our best MLB Systems with our readers. Of course once the season starts we will have all the qualifying selections for these and all of our 350+ MLB Systems. These systems take a look at when teams come in off a win/loss having had a certain number of hits, runs or men left on base or any combination of those. The numbers listed in () are our MLB System numbers, that is how they are listed in our data base, the records and units won are listed after each system.

(#GR1106) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite off a 5+ run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 34-15 +1155 units

(#GR1206) "Play On" any MLB Favorite off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 10+ hits and scored 4 or less runs. 41-24 +815 units

(#GR2806) "Play Against" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a win in a game in which they had 10+ hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 157-116 +2760 units

(#GR3206) "Play On" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a loss in which they had +10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 79-33 +2225 units

(#GR4606) "Play On" any MLB favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had at least 10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 89-41 +3085 units

(#GR4906) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a 2+ run loss in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 10 runners on base. 82-77 +3210 units

(#GR10706) "Play On" any MLB +140 or better Underdog whose opponent is off a win in which they had 10+ hits and scored at least 5 runs. 265-400 +4635 units

We will return with Part II of Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Report in our next issue of the E-Report Online so stay tuned.

Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Part II

(GR#806) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more that is coming in off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 44-19 +1080 units

(GR#906) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more that is off a loss in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and scored 5 or more runs. 74-31 +1760 units

(GR#1006) "Play Against" any MLB Home Underdog off a win in which they had a winning margin of at least 5 runs and had 10 or more hits. 51-94 +2375 units

(GR#1406) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 10+ hits and scored 4 or less runs. 19-6 +985 units

(GR#1606) "Play Against" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 5 or more hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 47-37 +1330 units

(GR#2706) "Play Against" any MLB Favorite off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 258-191 +1035 units

Gator's MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Part III

(GR#606) "Play On" any MLB Home Underdog in a division rivalry game with a line that is less than 200 and have won at least 6 of their last 10 games with a home win percentage of 55%+ and facing an opponent that has less than a 50% win percentage on the road. 40-20 +2685 units

(GR#3406) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a loss in which they had 10 or more hits and left 10+ runners on base. 172-210 +2410 units

(GR#4706) "Play On" any MLB -140 or more Favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 10 runners on base. 64-32 +920 units

(GR#6406) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a 1-run win in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 5 runners on base. 168-209 +1025 units

We hope that you have enjoyed our MLB "Right" Angle Technical Analysis Reports. These systems should help put you in some profitable situations this baseball season and our goal is and has always been to try and help our clients and readers have the best possible edge in making their selections. Have a great sunday, be safe and as always good luck! Gator

The Units they are up are these from last season 2006 or a few seasons?

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 5, 2007

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