MLB: Wednesday April 4 Plays

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Thanks guys for the compliments yesterday. I may add up to three games later today depending on future line movement.




Devil Rays @ Yankees
Play: Devil Rays +270
Intrinsic Value: +217
Consider Betting Price: +249
Comment:

It’s hard to pass up any team at this price this early in the season. This holds especially true for a pesky Devil Rays team that has always played the Yankees hard. Even when being backed by the best lineup in baseball, at this point of his career, it’s hard to make a case for Pettite warranting such a rich line. It took a while for Pettitte to find himself last year, as he was one of the worst pitchers in the league during the first half of the season. Don’t be surprised if he starts slow out of the gates once again this year, as he has always been known as a slow starter. Although Pettitte could be a problem for young and impatient lineups, he is a finesse pitcher that feels much more comfortable pitching to hitters he has a past history against. Case and point was last year, when he struggled against inferior lineups that he didn’t have hitters with a past history. The Devil Rays have one of the most underrated lineups in the American league, stockpiled with young talent who has shown a propensity to play to the level of their competition.

There is not much to like about the Devil Rays pitching match up against the Yankees lineup. The Devil Rays send a mediocre starter on the mound that is backed by the worst pen in baseball, and must face the best lineup in baseball. However I feel that I am being more than compensated for this huge disadvantage with the price books are offering for people to take the Devil Rays. Even though I think the Devil Rays have the worst chance of winning on Wednesday compared to any other team, they hold one of the better values, trading over 50 basis points off of their intrinsic value.
 

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Blue Jays @ Tigers
Play: Tigers -104
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
It seems like books really think highly of the Blue Jays this year, but possibly too highly. It’s rare for a book to disrespect the prior years league champs this early in the season, and I won’t hesitate taking this good of a home team when undervalued. Robertson is coming off his best year, and is at a prime age to continue his upward trend. He has always been prone to have dead arm late in the season, and has put forth one of the higher disparities of pre and post all star break numbers since entering the league. Simply put, if bettors plan to back Robertson, they should do it early in the season when he is much more effective. The Blue Jays killed southpaws all last year, and it is no surprise that Robertson struggled against them. However, their lineup is not as dangerous against southpaws (but still dangerous) this year, and the loss of Molina should benefit Robertson, as no other player on last years lineup gave him more problems. There are no big bats remaining that have shown to have the upper hand against Robertson. Being backed by one of the deepest and best bullpens in the league should allow the Tigers to curtail the Blue Jays bats throughout the game. Although the Blue Jays have a potent lineup, there might not be a lineup in baseball that has shown a higher disparity of productivity at home compared to the road.

When on, Burnett is one of the hardest pitchers to hit. However, being on is a guessing game with him, making him not a terribly compelling bet on the road when not getting basis points in compensation. Since coming off TJ surgery, he has been on a heavily monitored pitch count, which should hold especially true this early in the season. Combine that with the notion of his high rate of pitches per batter, and Burnett going more than five innings in this game might be hard. This does not bode well for the Blue Jays, as although they a decent bullpen, their value comes from the backend and lack the ideal depth to replace Burnett early. The Tigers have a deep lineup that hit well at home last year despite their pitch friendly confines.
 

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Indians @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -102
Intrinsic Value: -118
Consider Betting Price: -108
Comment:
With the way the line moved off the open, it seems like the public has once again fallen in love with the Indians bats. As a value bettor, I will gladly go against them when this event occurs. With Contreras and Buerhle’s true worth well below their perception and market price, Garland probably provides White Sox bettors the most value, as he might be the best pitcher on the team, yet doesn’t get the same respect as the other two when it comes to market pricing. After following 05’s career year slowly, Garland bounced back late last season, posting a solid ERA well below four after the break. Although he has the propensity to allow a lot of home runs, making him vulnerable pitching in a hitters park, he has actually performed much better at home, including a solid start against the Indians here last year. He has done a good job limiting his walks, which could prevent the Indians bats from doing damage and keep him out of the wind up. The White Sox performances are correlated to emotion more than most teams, leading me to believe that this may be a good spot for them to bounce back after opening day’s embarrassment.

The Indians are not the only lineup in this game that could do damage against any pitcher in the league, as the White Sox have one of the best lineups in the league, and is tailor made for this park. Today they have a good chance to showcase just that, as they are up against a pitcher that they have had past success against. Westbrook has always struggled on the road, and appears to be getting less comfortable away from home, posting a five plus road ERA last year. If he wants to turn this trend around, he will have to do it against a team whose three best hitters have had the upper hand against him. The addition of Erstad paid immediate dividends Monday, and has a good chance of doing so again today, as he managed six hits in 14 at bats against Westbrook. Westbrook’s early season limited pitch count will force a sub par bullpen to face a potent lineup that they have struggled against more than ideally suitable. Hard to pass up the White Sox at home without having to lay basis points this early in the season.
 

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Devil Rays @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -108
Intrinsic Value: -140
Consider Betting Price: -130
Comment:
This is the third straight day in a row that I am backing the Rockies, as linesmakers appear to be placing a price tag nowhere near their true worth. I am not terribly excited about betting on Lopez, but feel that he should be backed by some solid run support and a fast “pulling of the plug” if he struggles. Davis is coming off a horrific year and was rewarded by a suspect signing. Although his numbers should improve off of last year, they should not improve by the amount books are apparently speculating with this line. A change of scenery might help matter, but not having Moehler (the catcher he performed much better with) calling the game should be missed. As mentioned during the past two days, the Rockies have a potent and underrated lineup, and that holds just as true when going up against left handed pitchers. Davis has always been much more effective at home, and not having a past history at Coors has been more of a liability for pitchers than an asset. Not an ideal innings eater and a small pitch count early in the season, should allow the Rockies to see this poor Diamondbacks bullpen for their third consecutive day.

There is not much to like about Lopez, but the lineup he is up against compliments his style. He lacks an overpowering pitch, forcing him to depend on movement and location. Going up against a young and impatient lineup should help his strategy of forcing hitters to swing at bad pitches. Being backed by a bullpen with relievers that could eat up more than an inning at a time should allow the Rockies to pull the plug on him early. At even price at home, I will take a stab at him.
 

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Rangers @ Angels
Play: Angels -144
Intrinsic Value: -172
Consider Betting Price: -160
Comment:

Like the Rockies, this is the third straight game I am on the Angels. As I am not terribly bullish on the Angels in my valuation model, it appears that most of the value on them is a byproduct of an overvaluation on the Rangers. This is the third straight game in which the Rangers overrated lineup is set up to face quality pitching from inning one to nine I this game. Although not getting the recognition compared to other young pitching prospects in the American League, Santana has a bright future ahead of him. He is also a fundamental cappers dream, as he is a very situational pitcher. Working in his favor is that he has shown one of the highest disparities of home and away numbers over the last couple of years, and generating a 3.09 home ERA in that time span has been matched by just a handful of pitchers. Although the Rangers bats have got the upper hand over Santana, they have yet to show capable of doing damage at Santana’s home, as he put forth a quality start both times in this park. Being backed by an elite bullpen should give the Angels the advantage in the later innings.

McCarthy was a big name prospect a lot of teams wanted early last year, but Cooper and Williams were not willing to give up on him at all costs. This was due to him possessing one of the best 12 to 6 curves in the league. However, displaying a consistent lack of location and then confidence in this pitch gave the White Sox reason to open up options. Although mostly a bullpen pitcher, he didn’t reach six innings once last year, and shouldn’t again Wednesday. Being backed by a bullpen that lacks depth should allow the Angels improved lineup to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.
 

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Red Sox @ Royals
Play: Royals +146
Intrinsic Value: +112
Consider Betting Price: +127
Comment:

Put an overrated and overpriced team up against an underrated under priced team and it is no surprise the Royals are coming with some nice value in this game. They showed on opening day that they have young bats spread around the lineup that could do their fair share of damage. They are primed for potentially another big game, as they face a power pitcher that is not afraid to go at a hitter, which is exactly what a young and aggressive lineup wants. In fact, Becket was one of the worst first pitch pitchers in baseball last year, and with a depreciating curveball, will be forced to throw more favorable pitches for the Royals again this year. Beckett has always been more comfortable at home, while the Royals are one of the more underrated home hitting teams in the league. If the Royals are once again able to jump out early and prevent Papplebon from being a factor and the Red Sox will be forced to put up mediocre pitchers on the mound after Beckett.

Perez has been a big waste of talent. Along with his injuries has been a lack of motivation stemmed by the not liking how he was treated in Las Angeles. Starting the season with a new team from the beginning might revitalize his career. He pitched well in his only start against Boston last year, and might put forth another solid outing, as the Red Sox are a lineup much more potent at home and against right handed pitchers. Although not backed by a solid bullpen, I feel more than compensated for this concern with the market price I am getting.
 

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A’s @ Mariners
Play: A’s -115
Intrinsic Value: -136
Consider Betting Price: -118
Comment:
Note:
I got in on this line early yesterday at -105. At most shops current price, the A’s trade at a price above my target entry position.
I claimed a couple of years ago that Harden and Hernandez will be the two most dominant pitchers in the American League in the upcoming years. Backing Hernandez paid off on opening day, and getting value on Harden just two days later is nice. Harden has lacked durability, but when healthy has been flat out dominant. He brings to the table a mid 90’s fastball with a lot of movement, a nasty hard slider and effective changeup. He is one of the hardest pitchers to hit, and his only concern has been his lack of control at times- a deficiency that is minimized against free swinging lineups. That is exactly what he is up against on Wednesday with the Mariners lineup. It is no surprise that Harden has owned the Mariners in the past few years, pitching 42 innings and allowing just seven runs (1.49 ERA and sub one whip). Being backed by the second best bullpen in the American league will make it really hard for the Mariners to put runs on the board throughout this game.

A converted bullpen pitcher, Batista left the American league last year to become a starter for the Diamondbacks. The result was an unimpressive ERA and high Whip. The reward was a trip back to the American league and a 9 million dollar contract. In his mid 30’s, the best years are now behind him. Although up against an anemic lineup, it is a lineup that has given him a lot of problems in the past, as he has posted a five plus ERA against the A’s. Batista has actually preferred pitching on the road throughout his career, and has been noticeably easier to pick up at the night. His propensity to allow a high rate of base runners should hurt him in this game, as the A’s lack power and are best when in a manufacturing runs role. He is not known to eat up innings, which is a concern for the Mariners, as he is backed by a bullpen that now lacks depth with two key free agent losses.
 

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Padres @ Giants
Play: Padres +104
Intrinsic Value: -128
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:

Wrong team favored in this game, but I am not surprised. Don’t get me wrong, I am a big fan of Cain, and was actually touting him before most ever heard of him. When on, his stuff is as overpowering as any. But finding that comfort zone is hard for him this early in the season. Last year he really struggled early on, as locating his pitches simply not happening. If history repeats itself, the Padres have the lineup to take advantage of this lack of control Cain is also a pitcher that is much better suited being on a team that has a solid bullpen, as his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games forces an early exit. This does not bode well for him, as he is backed by a sub par bullpen. Cain dominated the Padres in every game last year, but faced them each time in the second half of the season. His propensity to be rusty early on leaves me to believe that he might struggle more this time. Either way, he shouldn’t see more than six innings, and possibly not even that.

I don’t think there was a more dominant road pitcher in baseball last year compared to Young, a pitcher who has always preferred pitching on the road. Last year, he was nearly unhittable pitching on the road, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.71 OBA. He also showed his best stuff prior to the break. Although he has yet to pitch at this park, it is a park tailor made for his fly ball pitching tendencies. Young was dominant against both right and left handed bats, a nice asset against a balanced lineup like the Giants. Being backed by the best bullpen in the national league will make it hard for the Giants to score throughout this game. I will take the basis points and the Padres.
 

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Thanks for the plays and BOL Buffett. Really like the A's (seems even more than you) and Tigers, but will be playing most of these. I notice you're very low on the Red Sox, and while the lines may very well be inflated (especially against a team that has owned them in previous years), I think you underestimate them. That could be the Bostonian in me talking, but I'll likely be staying away from that one altogether. Am also waiting on the Devil Rays line to see if I can get it around the 270 you got. Again, BOL and thanks.
 

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BTW, figure you've seen it by now, but the Yanks/D-Rays game was postponed.
 

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is your forum always titled the same? i want to be able to bookmark your forum. nice 5-0 yesterday. i hit it on a nice parlay
 

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wow i should have said 6-0 plus the late additions. incredible information, makes me feel real good when i look at the lines first then see you are on the same team.
 

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im assuming that the consider betting price is the highest line you will bet on?
 

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Nice to see you around Buff...watch out for that assclown Magica...he's been roaming.

nice writeups and good luck!
 

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do you now see any value in the phillies and the marlins? i think they both send to promising pictures to the mound today
 

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do you now see any value in the phillies and the marlins? i think they both send to promising pictures to the mound today

I obviously wouldn't speak for him, but I like both of these games today. My guess, however, after seeing his first post, is that he may be looking for a good line on Atlanta. I grabbed the Phils early either way because I figured the line will only move, which it has. I did this as well with LAD, but was wrong about which way the line would move. Will obviously be watching this thread to see if Buffett ends up playing either of these games though. Just my $.02 after trying to understand why buffett sees value in certain types of spots.
 

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Thanks guys.


Finman,
The Marlins game is the only game on today's card in which I did not derive an intrinsic value. Placing a value on Washington with a relatively unknown pitcher, coupled with the volitility of Sanchez makes this game risky. But I could safely say, laying that much chalk on sub par road team is far from a value play.

When the lines opened yesterday, the Phillies were near my target (opened at -118 and I have a open price target of -114 on them). I was hoping the line would drop, but it has been quite the contrary. With an intrinsic value of -125, there is no value left in betting the Phillies.

Jibba,
I don't neccessarily think the Red Sox are a bad team (they are actually a pretty solid team). But they are not as good as the public thinks they are. In my opinion, this is not a team you will make money betting on them, as their assets are fully valued. Being a public favorite coupled with the Royals being a public fade, and books are forced to inflate this line.

good luck today.
 

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Against you with Texas and Toronto but I'm loving the KC play once again.
 

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