PyRo's Wednesday Diamond's

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 4, 2007

First day of the MLB for me is today, and see a few I like. Plays will most likely range from 1*-5*.

3* Cincinnatti Reds -132

Bronson Arroyo is on the hill today for the Reds, and what a team to start the 2007 season he will face: The Chicago Cubs. Arroyo has owned the Cubbies going 4-0 with a 1.01 ERA vs. them. This guy is in the prime of his career, and we are able to get him at a reasonable # here. Arroyo is very durable, last year he led the Majors in Innings Pitched. 2 Days ago, the Reds had a solid win vs. the Cubs beating them 5-1, and the pen was able to rest as Harang went 7 innings. Lefthander Ted Lilly isn't going to over power anyone, he is a finesse pitcher, which suits this all-star caliber lineup of the Reds. Cincinnatti hits lefties very well, as they were 3rd in the league against them last year. Lilly never has faced the Reds, and although he reads the scouting reports, he hasnt faced too many of these guys, which hurts him. Also, I feel the Cubs start of the season is being overshadowed by the selling of this team at the end of the year, causing distractions already early in the year. Same old season for Cubs fans it looks like to me.

Reds 6
Cubs 3

BillyWaltersJr+ · Apr 4, 2007

Love this play and I am also on it hot and heavy.

Good luck! :103631605

Boxslayer · Apr 4, 2007

PyRo CaPPer said:
First day of the MLB for me is today, and see a few I like. Plays will most likely range from 1*-5*.

3* Cincinnatti Reds -132

Bronson Arroyo is on the hill today for the Reds, and what a team to start the 2007 season he will face: The Chicago Cubs. Arroyo has owned the Cubbies going 4-0 with a 1.01 ERA vs. them. This guy is in the prime of his career, and we are able to get him at a reasonable # here. Arroyo is very durable, last year he led the Majors in Innings Pitched. 2 Days ago, the Reds had a solid win vs. the Cubs beating them 5-1, and the pen was able to rest as Harang went 7 innings. Lefthander Ted Lilly isn't going to over power anyone, he is a finesse pitcher, which suits this all-star caliber lineup of the Reds. Cincinnatti hits lefties very well, as they were 3rd in the league against them last year. Lilly never has faced the Reds, and although he reads the scouting reports, he hasnt faced too many of these guys, which hurts him. Also, I feel the Cubs start of the season is being overshadowed by the selling of this team at the end of the year, causing distractions already early in the year. Same old season for Cubs fans it looks like to me.

Reds 6
Cubs 3

:smoking: Since when does it hurt a pitcher to not face a lineup before? The basis of baseball, pitching, is founded around starting pitchers, relief pitchers and closers.

Starters need to be able to have multiple PLUS pitches and be effective multiple times through the lineup because the more a batter faces a pitcher, the better that batter becomes.

Pitching is generally the same. Change speeds, hit your spots and keep the ball down. Scout the opposing hitters, and execute your pitches.

Hitters adjust to pitchers movement, velocity, delivery, arm action, arm slot. The more they see it, the better they track the ball.

Lilly has an advantage in this game, not a disadvantage. His advantage of facing this lineup first time doesn't guarantee success. But it is still an advantage.

Holler, bro, holler. Let me know your train of thought on this one.

:modemman:

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 4, 2007

What I meant was he doesnt know how to pitch these guys aside from reading the scouting reports...He is coming over from the AL, which isnt necessarily an advantage for him in switching leagues. NL ball is different than AL for obvious reasons, and dont forget Lilly is going to have to pick up a bat today....I was in a hurry writing it, and hitters definitely face a disadvantage, more so than the pitcher, cause they are yet to face this guy...I worded it the wrong way...Thats not really the angle I was getting at anyways, just threw it in there. I like this Reds line-up offensively, and they will be a able to put up #'s...Coldweather tonight, Lilly will have to spot up his pitches in that as well.....

This game may even be cancelled, there's a strong possibility.

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 4, 2007

2* Boston Red Sox TT over 5 (-120)

I like the Red Sox to bounce back and win this one tonight, but it's a little too juicy for me and I think the Royals have a nice little ball club this year. Beckett's very capable of shutting down the Royals offense who jumped out of the gate in this 2007 season putting up a quick 5 on Schilling and adding two more insurance runs later in the game. Boston's bats were quieted by Gil Meche, whos out to prove he deserves that big contract this year. Manny typically struggles on opening day, and it was no different this year as he took an 0fer in 4 AB's...Bottom line, guys who are supposed to hit for them didnt produce. I think they bounce back today and put up at least 8 runs against an erratic Odalis Perez who may play his way down to the minors this year.

Boxslayer · Apr 4, 2007

PyRo CaPPer said:
What I meant was he doesnt know how to pitch these guys aside from reading the scouting reports....

Those scouting reports are usually right. But besides that, you are still not factoring in the hitter's point of view - only the pitchers. They only have a scouting report on this pitcher and have never faced him much.

Lilly watches film and can see Griffey has a hole in his swing, and can be jammed on the inner half late in the count. Now he needs to execute the pitch. But all Griffey has on Lilly is "great run and sink on fastball, 12-6 curve, deceptive change stays single plane" But he has no idea what that run and sink will look like unless he gets in the box and sees it out of the hand.

PyRo CaPPer said:
He is coming over from the AL, which isnt necessarily an advantage for him in switching leagues. NL ball is different than AL for obvious reasons....

How is it not an advantage for him to come over from the AL? We already determined that hitters have to adjust to him, but now also he gets the advantage of needing to get 24 outs instead of 27, because he's going to face the pitcher 3 times a game minimum. He was facing a DH in the American League with no easy outs. Not to mention, the AL is a tougher league anyway, and he'll face a more lineup friendly NL that will allow him to settle into more games, pick up more confidence, and perhaps be a better pitcher overall.

I know this wasn't the main angle of your play, but I just wanted to see where you were coming from with that, and make sure I wasnt missing something. When I read that, I was right here...:think2:

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 4, 2007

Yea youre right, I am a little off base...I totally agree that hitters have to adjust more than pitchers, i guess i was just throwing that in there as extra points that end the end didnt make sense....Regardless, I still like this play based on the fact I like this Arroyo kid on the mound, who dominates the Cubbies, and may even have a psychological advantage over them that he just has their # and cant beat him. Like I said, I love this line-up for the Reds, especially the top half in Freel, Dunn, Phillips, and Junior Griffey....

Boxslayer said:
How is it not an advantage for him to come over from the AL? We already determined that hitters have to adjust to him, but now also he gets the advantage of needing to get 24 outs instead of 27, because he's going to face the pitcher 3 times a game minimum.

This may not be easy tonight though, as Arroyo hit 2 bombs against these Cubs last year! :missingte

Boxslayer · Apr 4, 2007

PyRo CaPPer said:
Yea youre right, I am a little off base...I totally agree that hitters have to adjust more than pitchers, i guess i was just throwing that in there as extra points that end the end didnt make sense....Regardless, I still like this play based on the fact I like this Arroyo kid on the mound, who dominates the Cubbies, and may even have a psychological advantage over them that he just has their # and cant beat him. Like I said, I love this line-up for the Reds, especially the top half in Freel, Dunn, Phillips, and Junior Griffey....

This may not be easy tonight though, as Arroyo hit 2 bombs against these Cubs last year! :missingte

I know it wasnt your main angle, but it really was off base. I make mistakes all of the time in my writeups, and I'll go back and read them and I'll go...ehhh that came out the wrong way. I did not mean to say it like that.

Only reason I said anything is because I know you can handle a little discussion and questioning, which says a lot about you. :103631605

Good luck, Suckeye. :thumbsup:

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 4, 2007

Yeah, definitely came out the wrong way, i know the game better than THAT idiotic statement. No big deal. Definitely, Definitely keep the criticisim coming though!!! And I found it better to say "Luckeye", as in fortunate to come back and beat Xavier and Tennessee.

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 4, 2007

1-1 on the night as Lilly was mowing Cincy down, holidng them to 3 hits....It's early in the year, and I expect to come back strong tomorrow....That sure was a juicy loss though, gonna try staying away from those often, should a been a 2* play, oh well.

Boxslayer · Apr 4, 2007

PS - Add Bronson Arroyo to the list of overvalued pitchers. He had an absolute monster career year last year, and there is no way he repeats it.

Lay off or fade him early until his value gets on par.

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 4, 2007

Boxslayer said:
PS - Add Bronson Arroyo to the list of overvalued pitchers. He had an absolute monster career year last year, and there is no way he repeats it.

Lay off or fade him early until his value gets on par.

....Damn.

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