At the chance of jokers saying I dont know what I'm talking about and more respected Posters saying I'm bluffing or pretending, I would like to try to give some basic grounding on attempting to make Money at any Sport by Betting. Most of the talk on this Forum, outside some Joke posts by me and others is littered with posts which to anyone with a clue to Betting realise that the majority of this Forum couldnt price up the worth of a cup of Coffee yet post as if their seasoned Pro's.
So let's start with some fundamentals about Betting. Two things that give the Oddsmaker an immediate if not killing advantage is that They get to set the Odds and then proceed to stick at least 2.5% in their advantage. Most Punters, even quite learned one's think thats where it ends but Books have long spent time thinking up ways of confusing the Bettor into thinking things are more complicated than they are, thats because in reality its simple, all you have to do is beat their percentage. So their PR Men constantly talk of Stats, watching line movement, getting the best number, how much a point is worth, how shrewd bettors play alternative markets like R/Ls, First scorers , first score, halftimes , second halves etc. All these are there to undermine the Bettor from trying to beat the basic line by making him feel sharp playing into these theories.
Before I carry on I will say that I've been knocking Odds up for Donkey's Years and have great respect for other Oddsmakers, something that seems to go by the board here. These Geezers dont get paid well for being fools so always respect their view. While an oddsmaker will use standard stats to come to a price, the more important stats will be the ones the General Public see as significant like Pitcher's Stats in Baseball, this doesnt mean so fade the Public( a stupid ultimately losing ploy) but to have any chance of beating those Odds one has to look at alternative stats that while important to the Oddsmaker isnt the most influencing on his price. As I said in another post you need to negate the Books standard guidelines in your H'capping such as Home advantage,Books Vig and the worth of 1/2 run Baseball, 3pts NFL, 4 pts NBA etc.
So lets look at Baseball as its topical. Look up whatever stat you think is the key one and make a percentage of it, EG: 123 times occurance into 162 games=Team A 1.31,Team B =1.69 Team B is the dominant so 1.69 into both added = 1.77 = 56.49% = Team B -129 now add the following to adjust for the HA, Vig etc
Home Team + .40
Road Team + .55
With Team B playing at Home their price is -129 plus +40 = +111 on your H'capping, compare that to whats on offer and its either bet or no Bet.
I understand Posters will be thinking fuck me there's not many bets going to qualify but its incredible how many do and if not at least it shows you what Odds your up against and why it may be better to pass. Remember, there's no glory in being a loser.
I hope this post wasnt too negative and meaninglress for Chewmorerows of Loopaper and Cruisa Fix :drink:
incorporate the following into your price.
So let's start with some fundamentals about Betting. Two things that give the Oddsmaker an immediate if not killing advantage is that They get to set the Odds and then proceed to stick at least 2.5% in their advantage. Most Punters, even quite learned one's think thats where it ends but Books have long spent time thinking up ways of confusing the Bettor into thinking things are more complicated than they are, thats because in reality its simple, all you have to do is beat their percentage. So their PR Men constantly talk of Stats, watching line movement, getting the best number, how much a point is worth, how shrewd bettors play alternative markets like R/Ls, First scorers , first score, halftimes , second halves etc. All these are there to undermine the Bettor from trying to beat the basic line by making him feel sharp playing into these theories.
Before I carry on I will say that I've been knocking Odds up for Donkey's Years and have great respect for other Oddsmakers, something that seems to go by the board here. These Geezers dont get paid well for being fools so always respect their view. While an oddsmaker will use standard stats to come to a price, the more important stats will be the ones the General Public see as significant like Pitcher's Stats in Baseball, this doesnt mean so fade the Public( a stupid ultimately losing ploy) but to have any chance of beating those Odds one has to look at alternative stats that while important to the Oddsmaker isnt the most influencing on his price. As I said in another post you need to negate the Books standard guidelines in your H'capping such as Home advantage,Books Vig and the worth of 1/2 run Baseball, 3pts NFL, 4 pts NBA etc.
So lets look at Baseball as its topical. Look up whatever stat you think is the key one and make a percentage of it, EG: 123 times occurance into 162 games=Team A 1.31,Team B =1.69 Team B is the dominant so 1.69 into both added = 1.77 = 56.49% = Team B -129 now add the following to adjust for the HA, Vig etc
Home Team + .40
Road Team + .55
With Team B playing at Home their price is -129 plus +40 = +111 on your H'capping, compare that to whats on offer and its either bet or no Bet.
I understand Posters will be thinking fuck me there's not many bets going to qualify but its incredible how many do and if not at least it shows you what Odds your up against and why it may be better to pass. Remember, there's no glory in being a loser.
I hope this post wasnt too negative and meaninglress for Chewmorerows of Loopaper and Cruisa Fix :drink:
incorporate the following into your price.
