I may add from one to three bets throughout the day if some line movements work in my favor.
Cubs @ Reds
Play: Cubs +100
Intrinsic Value: -122
Consider Betting Price: -107
Comment:
Although I played the Reds yesterday, I will be one of the first to tell you this team is one of the worst in baseball, and more importantly, worse than public perception. Although the Cubs have always been public darlings, this might be the year that it is warranted, as their lineup is loaded, the same can be said for their bullpen, and they finally have a manager that is one of the better in game strategist in baseball. Without a decisive pitching edge, it’s hard to make a case for the Reds against the Cubs when having to lay basis points. Lohse has a good arsenal of pitches, but the lack of locating them has plagued his career. He has been one of the more hittable pitchers in baseball the last few years, and allowing too many baserunners, which has forced him to pitch out of the stretch more than normal, a spot where he just isn’t comfortable. When coming to the Reds halfway into last season, National League lineups had a hard time adjusting to him, but once they saw him and got more information, he became the same old Lohse and posted a six plus ERA in the last month of the season. The Cubs were one of those NL teams that had no problems hitting him, as he got dominated in his only start against them. Not known to eat up innings and being on a smaller pitch count than normal and the Reds will be forced to use what is one of the worst bullpens in baseball for a few innings in this game. Lohse’s propensity to allow the long ball will be magnified by this ballpark, and he did not pitch well here last year.
Marquis is the other pitcher in this game that has yet to live up to his potential. He has an arsenal of pitches that can allow him to be one of the better pitchers in the league, but his stubbornness and propensity to tip his pitches plagued his season last year. However, those two deficiencies are fixable and have been worked on, and he put forth a solid ending to spring. Marquis has always been one of those rare pitchers that has preferred pitching on the road, and has been harder to pick up during the day as well. He has a nasty sinkerball, which is a huge asset against this lineup and in this park, as the Reds are feast or famine and need the long ball to produce runs. He has dominated Dunn in the past, the only hitter on the Reds that is seeing the ball well right now. Marquis is also backed by a deep bullpen, with two lefty specialists that could be an asset in a situational spot late in the game. Dempster looks much sharper and in better shape this year as well. Marquis also adds a bat to the lineup. The weather conditions will make the ball not travel as well compared to the first day game, which favors the Cubs, as the Reds need the long ball, as they are not as well suited for manufacturing runs when compared to the Cubs lineup.
Cubs @ Reds
Play: Cubs +100
Intrinsic Value: -122
Consider Betting Price: -107
Comment:
Although I played the Reds yesterday, I will be one of the first to tell you this team is one of the worst in baseball, and more importantly, worse than public perception. Although the Cubs have always been public darlings, this might be the year that it is warranted, as their lineup is loaded, the same can be said for their bullpen, and they finally have a manager that is one of the better in game strategist in baseball. Without a decisive pitching edge, it’s hard to make a case for the Reds against the Cubs when having to lay basis points. Lohse has a good arsenal of pitches, but the lack of locating them has plagued his career. He has been one of the more hittable pitchers in baseball the last few years, and allowing too many baserunners, which has forced him to pitch out of the stretch more than normal, a spot where he just isn’t comfortable. When coming to the Reds halfway into last season, National League lineups had a hard time adjusting to him, but once they saw him and got more information, he became the same old Lohse and posted a six plus ERA in the last month of the season. The Cubs were one of those NL teams that had no problems hitting him, as he got dominated in his only start against them. Not known to eat up innings and being on a smaller pitch count than normal and the Reds will be forced to use what is one of the worst bullpens in baseball for a few innings in this game. Lohse’s propensity to allow the long ball will be magnified by this ballpark, and he did not pitch well here last year.
Marquis is the other pitcher in this game that has yet to live up to his potential. He has an arsenal of pitches that can allow him to be one of the better pitchers in the league, but his stubbornness and propensity to tip his pitches plagued his season last year. However, those two deficiencies are fixable and have been worked on, and he put forth a solid ending to spring. Marquis has always been one of those rare pitchers that has preferred pitching on the road, and has been harder to pick up during the day as well. He has a nasty sinkerball, which is a huge asset against this lineup and in this park, as the Reds are feast or famine and need the long ball to produce runs. He has dominated Dunn in the past, the only hitter on the Reds that is seeing the ball well right now. Marquis is also backed by a deep bullpen, with two lefty specialists that could be an asset in a situational spot late in the game. Dempster looks much sharper and in better shape this year as well. Marquis also adds a bat to the lineup. The weather conditions will make the ball not travel as well compared to the first day game, which favors the Cubs, as the Reds need the long ball, as they are not as well suited for manufacturing runs when compared to the Cubs lineup.
