I will more than likely add one or two come tomorrow if the lines drop a bit.
Mariners @ Indians
Play: Mariners +130
Intrinsic Value: -103
Consider Betting: +112
Comment:
No, I don’t expect the books to open the Mariners as the favorite in this game, but I do feel they have just as good chance (slightly better) of winning in this spot. Byrd showed enough evidence last year that he is essentially done being an effective pitcher on the mound, and those quietly solid numbers he was generating in years prior will be really hard to obtain now that he is 36. He no longer can hide his inability to pitcher to left handed batters and was owned by them last year. He is also one of those rare pitchers that always put up better numbers on the road, no matter what team he pitched for. Part of the value potentially derived on the Mariners might be influenced by his solid career numbers against the team. However, all those numbers were generated while he was an effective pitcher, and in his only start against them last year, he last just three innings before getting taken out. Both these teams have actually been more productive on a three year weighted average hitting on the road as well (partially derived by the pitchers park in Seattle). Add that to Byrd never pitching effectively at home, and home field advantage is inflated in this spot. The Indians just got finished playing a hard fought series against the White Sox on Thursday where they had to use a lot of bullpen pitchers. Byrd has never been a solid innings eater, something that should hold especially true with his first start.
Ramirez has yet to pitch to his potential, but being traded for Soriano shows what the Mariners think about him. He has three solid pitches that has made him effective against left handed bats, which is a huge asset going up against a team whose three starting outfielders bat from the left side, while both Hafner and Martinez do so as well. He seems to be harder to pick up under the nights with the notable disparity of numbers, and is backed by a deeper and better rested bullpen than his opponents.
Mariners @ Indians
Play: Mariners +130
Intrinsic Value: -103
Consider Betting: +112
Comment:
No, I don’t expect the books to open the Mariners as the favorite in this game, but I do feel they have just as good chance (slightly better) of winning in this spot. Byrd showed enough evidence last year that he is essentially done being an effective pitcher on the mound, and those quietly solid numbers he was generating in years prior will be really hard to obtain now that he is 36. He no longer can hide his inability to pitcher to left handed batters and was owned by them last year. He is also one of those rare pitchers that always put up better numbers on the road, no matter what team he pitched for. Part of the value potentially derived on the Mariners might be influenced by his solid career numbers against the team. However, all those numbers were generated while he was an effective pitcher, and in his only start against them last year, he last just three innings before getting taken out. Both these teams have actually been more productive on a three year weighted average hitting on the road as well (partially derived by the pitchers park in Seattle). Add that to Byrd never pitching effectively at home, and home field advantage is inflated in this spot. The Indians just got finished playing a hard fought series against the White Sox on Thursday where they had to use a lot of bullpen pitchers. Byrd has never been a solid innings eater, something that should hold especially true with his first start.
Ramirez has yet to pitch to his potential, but being traded for Soriano shows what the Mariners think about him. He has three solid pitches that has made him effective against left handed bats, which is a huge asset going up against a team whose three starting outfielders bat from the left side, while both Hafner and Martinez do so as well. He seems to be harder to pick up under the nights with the notable disparity of numbers, and is backed by a deeper and better rested bullpen than his opponents.
