Boxslayer's MLB Friday (6-4, +3.26)

6-4, +3.26

2* Chicago White Sox -1.5 +160

After a hard fought series with the Indians, the WhiteSox face another central rival as <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> comes to town. I’m playing the run line here because of the way I think this game will go. One, if not both of these pitchers will get lit up today, and I'm putting my money that it is Silva. If they both get lit, and the game becomes a high scoring affair, 1-run shouldn't make the difference here. Good odds at +160.
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Javier Vasquez has made a name for himself in this league, not because he is anything special, but by stepping up in big games. He’s a solid 3 guy that comes to pitch when a good team or good game rolls into town, and that’s what he has here. A <st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State> team, off a sweep, will get out of the friendly confines and friendly temperatures of their dome, and head down to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> in the 45-degree weather. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> should remember quickly in this game that bat to ball contact in cool weather doesn’t feel good on the hands. The White Sox have been playing in this weather for the past 3 games, and are no stranger to it so far this season.
<o> </o>
Vasquez has had a bad history vs. the Twinkies, but it is really skewed because he is a poor dome pitcher, and struggles against the Twins in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State>. When he has faced them in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City>, he has performed admirably. His last outing was 6.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs. He has also induced the Twins into groundballs more than any other team with a GB:FB ratio of about 2:1, which is very impressive. Vasquez has performed much better at home, as his ERA sits about a half run better when he pitches at home. He is also a fast starter, as his April ERA of 3.99 over the past 3 seasons is more than a run and a half better than almost any other month of the season.
<o> </o>
Carlos Silva comes into this game in the complete opposite boat. His road ERA sits 1 run higher at 5.00 on road starts. And his ERA gets almost 1 full run higher when he gets outdoors. How will he respond to the early season shivers? The White Sox swept the Twins early in the season last year, in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City>. Finally, Silva’s ugly April ERA of 6.04 is a full run to 1.5 runs worse than any other month. Tells me Silva is a slow starter, who probably doesn’t pitch well in colder conditions, as his ERA gets better as the months go by, and temperatures increase.
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> 8
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> 4

i need a 2 o clock play im a degenerate

1* Redsox/Rangers under 10.5 -110

Pretty inflated number here in a spot where two pitchers should be able to succeed.

Tim Wakefield, the 40 year old knuckleballer, gets the start today for the Red Sox after back-to-back successful outings by Beckett and Andrew Dice-K. Red Sox are playing pitcher's duels right now, and winning. I'm going to say something now, and I will say it all year long: Baseball is a game of streaks. Hitting streaks, winning streaks, scoreless inning streaks, whatever. And Boston's offense, and Texas' offense are both ice cold right now.

The past 3 years Wakefield has done his best work in April. 3.09 ERA and .216 average against himand only 7 HR's given up are all outstanding numbers for him. A knuckleball is a rare pitch to be mastered and can be unpredictable, and examining past history is key when determining how Wakefield will perform. Although he hasn't had much success vs. Texas in the past, most of the key bats in this year's Texas lineup haven't done much against him. Mark Texiera (.226), Hairston Jr. (.083), Sammy Sosa (.167), Kenny Lofton (.250), Michael Young (.257) have all been less than spectacular. Frank Catalanatto and Brad Wilkerson are the only two to really make their mark on Wakefield in their careers - and Frank Cat isn't exactly a homerun threat to break a game open.

Another thing to consider here is stolen bases. Knuckleballers are typically prone to giving up stolen bases because the velocity of the pitches that they are throwing allows runners to get good jumps. However, this Texas team really only has one double-digit stolen base threat, and that is an over-the-hill Kenny Lofton. This tells me even with Wakefield's slow velocity, the Rangers will have to continue to play station-to-station baseball - or will need a Big Fly to crack this game open, and they just aren't hitting well enough right now, and Wakefield hasnt given up homers historically this early in the season for that to happen.

On the other side, Texas starts a pitcher that will be undervalued this season: Robinson Tejeda. I just can't put my money on the Rangers right now, the way they are swinging it and vs. a team like Boston. But Tejeda is a 25 year old right hander that will run it up there in the mid 90's. He closed last season strong, and had a nice spring, and I think he is ready to make noise this year as a solid 3 starter. His downside is his inability to pitch to left-handed hitters, and with Ortiz, Drew, Cora, and Varitek able to swing it from the leftside in this game, you have 4 left-handed bats that may hurt Tejeda at some point in this game. However, with a cushion like 10.5 runs, and Tejeda pumped about making the home opening start for the Rangers, look for this game to not necessarily be a pitcher's duel, but to stay under the hefty 10.5 total.

Boston 5
Texas 3

Ken Griffey Jr Super Nintendo style.........booooooomb.

Boxslayer said:

1* Redsox/Rangers under 10.5 -110

Pretty inflated number here in a spot where two pitchers should be able to succeed.

Tim Wakefield, the 40 year old knuckleballer, gets the start today for the Red Sox after back-to-back successful outings by Beckett and Andrew Dice-K. Red Sox are playing pitcher's duels right now, and winning. I'm going to say something now, and I will say it all year long: Baseball is a game of streaks. Hitting streaks, winning streaks, scoreless inning streaks, whatever. And Boston's offense, and Texas' offense are both ice cold right now.

The past 3 years Wakefield has done his best work in April. 3.09 ERA and .216 average against himand only 7 HR's given up are all outstanding numbers for him. A knuckleball is a rare pitch to be mastered and can be unpredictable, and examining past history is key when determining how Wakefield will perform. Although he hasn't had much success vs. Texas in the past, most of the key bats in this year's Texas lineup haven't done much against him. Mark Texiera (.226), Hairston Jr. (.083), Sammy Sosa (.167), Kenny Lofton (.250), Michael Young (.257) have all been less than spectacular. Frank Catalanatto and Brad Wilkerson are the only two to really make their mark on Wakefield in their careers - and Frank Cat isn't exactly a homerun threat to break a game open.

Another thing to consider here is stolen bases. Knuckleballers are typically prone to giving up stolen bases because the velocity of the pitches that they are throwing allows runners to get good jumps. However, this Texas team really only has one double-digit stolen base threat, and that is an over-the-hill Kenny Lofton. This tells me even with Wakefield's slow velocity, the Rangers will have to continue to play station-to-station baseball - or will need a Big Fly to crack this game open, and they just aren't hitting well enough right now, and Wakefield hasnt given up homers historically this early in the season for that to happen.

On the other side, Texas starts a pitcher that will be undervalued this season: Robinson Tejeda. I just can't put my money on the Rangers right now, the way they are swinging it and vs. a team like Boston. But Tejeda is a 25 year old right hander that will run it up there in the mid 90's. He closed last season strong, and had a nice spring, and I think he is ready to make noise this year as a solid 3 starter. His downside is his inability to pitch to left-handed hitters, and with Ortiz, Drew, Cora, and Varitek able to swing it from the leftside in this game, you have 4 left-handed bats that may hurt Tejeda at some point in this game. However, with a cushion like 10.5 runs, and Tejeda pumped about making the home opening start for the Rangers, look for this game to not necessarily be a pitcher's duel, but to stay under the hefty 10.5 total.

Boston 5
Texas 3

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thanks for making this play just for me :homer:

Looks like they already postponed the ChiSox game tonight.

sportsfantatic44 said:

Looks like they already postponed the ChiSox game tonight.

Click to expand...

Seriously? hno:

Friday night's scheduled game between the White Sox and Twins at U.S. Cellular Field has been postponed because of a forecast calling for extremely cold temperatures and high winds. A makeup date has not been determined.

Thanks.

Nice call on the ranger under. I love Texas day games over when at home, but not until the weather heats up. Almost played this one under with you, just had that stat stuck in my head and passed.

Great call, never in doubt.

Easy winner Box.. Good shit my man.