Jake's Picks - MLB Friday April 6th

JakeT. · Apr 6, 2007

Record: 8-15
Profit: -5.16

Dogs: 5-7 +0
Favs: 3-3 +1.27
Unders: 11-5 -5.7
Overs: 1-2 -.73

Not the start to the season I wanted but I'll get going before too long.

Predicted Lines:

Cleveland -145, O9 -125
Washington -150, 9 Pk
Yankees -150, O9.5 -120

Bets:

Washington Nationals +100
Pitchers: Williams/Owings

Jerome Williams has always provided quality innings and the move to this pitchers' park will only help him. Arizona's lineup is not hitting as well as they should be and I'd expect Williams to do pretty well here. Owings is making his first start and wasn't impressive in the spring at all. The Nats are scoring runs here and there and that should be enough to take this home win.

Baltimore Orioles +190
Pitchers: Loewen/Mussina

I just can't lay off this juicy line. Mussina always gives up a few runs to the Orioles and although the O's aren't hitting well, the Yankees are playing some pretty poor defense. Loewen dominated the Yankees in 3 of his 4 starts last year and in the 4th, he didn't get hit that hard. Gotta back him at almost 2-1 odds to win this game.

JakeT. · Apr 6, 2007

Predicted Lines:

Florida -130, U8.5 -115
Toronto -130, O9.5 -115
Cincinnati -135, O10 -120

Bets:

Florida Marlins +100
Pitches: Mitre/Moyer

The Phillies aren't hitting anything right now and Mitre has had a solid spring. Moyer is a good pitcher but Florida is hitting very well right now and they had no problems against lefties last season. With Florida at home, I have to bite on a +100 line since Philly isn't hitting well.

Cincinnati/Pittsburgh Over 9.5 +100
Pitchers: Belisle/Maholm

Maholm has gotten hit pretty hard almost every time he's gone to Cincy and that is a ballpark where alot of runs can be scored. Pittsburgh hit decently against some strong starters in Houston and Belisle hasn't done much to impress me. Hitters' park will get this one over for us.

JakeT. · Apr 6, 2007

Predicted Lines:

Mets -135, O9.5 -115
Milwaukee -135, U8.5 -115
St Louis -125, 9 PK

Bets:

New York Mets -110
Mets/Braves Over 9.5 +100
Pitchers: Perez/Redman

Perez is inconsistent but had a good spring and the Braves have not hit that well so far this year. Redman has had trouble with this Mets team before and really isn't that effective anymore. He has worked on a curve this spring but his stuff just isn't good enough anymore and he's a good candidate to give up alot of runs to one of the best offenses in baseball.

Milwaukee/ChicagoC Under 8.5 +100
Pitches: Bush/Hill

Bush dominated the Cubs quite a few times last season and despite all the big names Chicago has, they have hit like crap in their games so far this year. Hill has alot of potential and I'd expect him to do pretty well here. Milwaukee is a pretty big park and I think both pitchers will throw quality innings.

JakeT. · Apr 6, 2007

Predicted Lines:

Detroit -350, O9.5 -110
San Diego -145, U8.5 -115
Anaheim -110, 9 Pk
Giants -130, 8.5 Pk

Bets:

Tigers -1.5 -110
2-Unit Play
Pitchers: Verlander/De La Rosa

De La Rosa is not a good lefty and the Tigers are going to absolutely demolish lefties this season. They were very good last year but adding Sheff just puts them on another planet. They should knock out this guy by the 3rd and coast to any easy victory. Whoever comes in to repair the damage for the Royals will be an even worse pitcher than the starter. Tigers win this one easy as Verlander should limit the Royals.

San Fran Giants -108
Pitchers: Penny/Lowry

Just a bet based on Penny's arm issues and SF at home. Seems to be where the value is.

Kruser6 · Apr 6, 2007

Hey Jake whats up man. Just wondering how serious the issues with Penny's arm are? I am on the Dodgers pretty heavily for tonight. . (well as heavily as an early season play permits)

JakeT. · Apr 6, 2007

Kruser6 said:
Hey Jake whats up man. Just wondering how serious the issues with Penny's arm are? I am on the Dodgers pretty heavily for tonight. . (well as heavily as an early season play permits)

Not sure if it will hold him back or not but he really hasn't pitched that well in the spring. Apparently he has okay velocity but just has alot of rust to shake off still.