MLB: Saturday April 7th Plays

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Suffered my first losing day of the season yesterday. I may add a couple of plays throughout the day.

Tigers @ Royals
Play: Royals +124
Intrinsic Value: +100
Consider Betting Price: +117
Comment:

The Royals continue to get disrespected by books even though they have showed they make for a tough team to beat at home. I said prior to his last start that Meche has the pitching arsenal to be a dominant pitcher, and he showed that on opening day by running through a Red Sox lineup. His problem has always been a mental deficiency and a lack of confidence that usually was displayed in his road starts when playing for the Mariners. When at home, he was a much more effective pitcher for Seattle, and if his first start was any indication, it appears that he is doing the same for the Royals. Not only does Meche have one of the higher disparities of home vs. away numbers, but the same could be said for his day vs. night numbers, as it appears that his curveball is much harder to pick up during the day. His lifetime day ERA is 3.72 compared to his night 5.37 ERA, a disparity beyond randomness. Probably the team that he pitched the best against last year was the Tigers, putting forth a solid ERA and OBA. There is not one player in today’s lineup that can say has Meche’s number. With the lack of patience the Tigers hitters have at the plate, Meche should avoid a high pitch count, thus allowing him to go deep into this game and avoid their bullpen. The Royals bullpen is well rested.

Not having pitched a meaningful game in nearly a year, Maroth appears to be getting a bit too much respect from linesmakers, especially since he was nothing special prior to his major injury. He never was effective pitching to right handed bats, which could be a problem against this underrated Royals lineup. In the past, Maroth had struggled against the Royals, and even left handed hitter DeJesus has hit him well. Lacking overpowering stuff, Maroth is dependent on the home plate ump to give him the corners, something that he will more than likely not get with West behind home plate. The Royals are a much better hitting team when playing at home.
 

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Twins @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -126
Intrinsic Value: -157
Consider Betting Price: -143

Comment:
Prior to seasons start, I was expecting for the White Sox to be an intriguing go- against, as I have been waiting for their inevitable regression from their World Series title. However, it appears that so are the linesmakers, as they have put a line out for them for the third straight game in which I deem below their intrinsic value. A couple of years ago I was expecting Silva to be a nice complementary right hander for Santana for many years to come. Last years disaster blamed by the WBC and inability to locate his sinker has left a lot to be desired. However, prior to last year, he was still very hittable and relied on his sinker (that has depreciated in value) to get him out of a lot of jams. He comes into this season with an OBA over .300. Silva also is much more effective inside his dome, and even when pitching well, was never effective as a road starter. He has also been known to start seasons slow, coming into today’s game with a career April ERA of nearly five. He was extremely vulnerable to the long ball last year once his sinker become ineffective, which is a disaster when pitching in this park. If there is one team that has his number, it is the White Sox, as his near six career ERA against them will reflect. Not suprisngly, Cellular Field has eaten him alive, allowing over seven runs per nine and a home run less than every three innings. Also night a surprise is the amount of players on the White Sox with past success against him, including new addition Erstad. Silva is backed by the best bullpen, but most of its strength is in the backend defending a lead. Pulling the trigger early on Silva might be hard with Ponson on the mound the following day.

The Twins lineup is improved, but is nothing to write home about outside their dome. Vazquez’s low career WHIP shows there is upside off his high ERA. He did a good job limiting the home runs allowed in this park, and his struggles against the Twins last year came in the dome. He is a right hander that is more effective against left handed hitters, which works in his favor, as the Twins two best bats are from the left side. His bullpen is suspect and has seen a lot of work, but their pitcher throwing better than any, Aardsma had the day off yesterday.
 

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Mets @ Braves
Play: Braves -114
Intrinsic Value: -128
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:

The Mets starting pitching has been downright dominant starting off the season, but don’t be surprised to see that trend end with Glavine on the mound, as he has never been able to pitch to his former team effectively. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA in the mid 5’s against the Braves, and an OBA over .300. It appears to be a deficiency beyond fundamentals, as a mental barrier seems to be limiting Glavines ability to pitch against them. Whatever the case, Glavine will have to overcome dominance by several key hitters in the Braves lineup today, including Jones, Renteria and Francour. There might not be a pitcher in the league more dependent on the home plate umpire than Glavine, especially this late in his career. He needs the corners called to be effective, something that he will not get with Marsh behind home plate. Smoltz has the power to overcome the small zone he will be pitching against today. Glavine does not.

Whenever you can get Smoltz at an undervalued price at home, it is a compelling bet. He is one of the more consistent pitchers that you can find, and a type of pitcher you want going against a hot lineup like the Mets. Smoltz had no problem against this team last year. In fact, he dominated them. He has had past success against a few key hitters on the team. He was more effective at home last year, and his pitches are much more live during day games, allowing him to put forth a career day game ERA of 3. Although it was not a factor in last night’s game, Smoltz is now backed by a very solid bullpen that was lacking last year. The addition of Soriano gives the Braves a dominant 7th inning option, while the addition of Gonzalez is a huge asset against a left handed dominated lineup.
 

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Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Play: Nationals +134
Intrinsic Value: +109
Consider Betting Price: +125
Comment:
I am well aware that the Nationals are the worst team in baseball. However, if you are patient, and pick your spots, they will be one of the more compelling teams to bet on over the course of the season, as you know that books will be inflating the price knowing full well squares won’t touch them. This is a good spot for a talented young pitcher like Patterson to bounce back from his embarrassing opening day performance. He has shown the ability to bounce back from poor outings the last couple of years. In the only three starts that he allowed at least five runs since 2005, he allowed only one run the following start. Patterson is more effective at home and pitched the Diamondbacks well on in limited action. Not many hitters on the team have a history against him, giving Patterson an embedded advantage. The Diamondbacks have always been a more effective hitting team at home, and are too young to be given the credit they are receiving by most. What the Nationals don’t get credit for is their bullpen, that ranks better than nearly half the teams in the league, including the Diamondbacks.

Webb is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. Webb is also one of the streakiest, as his ability to pitch his sinkerball has the propensity to disappear for long periods of time. This does not make him an ideal candidate as a bounce back starter, and he is coming off a poor outing where he struggled with his location. Webb, for some strange reason has struggled against the Nats in the past, while they bring a couple of hitters to the game with some success against him. The advantage of having a sinkerball somewhat goes to waste when pitching in such a spacious park, while the advantage of having a dominant pitcher does as well when facing the worst lineup in the league, as it is not necessary for having a dominant outing from your pitcher. Webb is still on a smaller pitch count compared to later in the season, and is backed by a sub par bullpen that has already blown some leads
 

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Phillies @ Marlins
Play: Marlins -108
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -113
Comment:
Don’t let last years horrible numbers against the Phillies fool you. There are only a handful of starters I would rather have on the mound over Willis when facing this left handed dominated lineup the Phillies bring to the plate everyday. His poor numbers that were accumulated last year was a product of horrible fielding in one game and simply not having his stuff in the other. Willis is extremely difficult on left handed bats, and has only allowed six home runs against left handed hitters in his career. He has dominated Rollins (9 for 48) and Utley (3 for 16), and posses a big match up problem for Howard. He was sharp on opening day, and has the ability to accumulate as high of a pitch count than any other lefty in the league, giving the Marlins a good chance of avoiding their suspect bullpen. Expect the Phillies dangerous lineup to be curtailed to day by a fundamental disadvantage.

The Marlins have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, and when backed by a solid starting pitcher, they bring a solid team to the ballpark. Although Myers pitched to this lineup well last year, he has struggled against this team in years past, and hasn’t found an answer for a couple of their young hitters. Myers pitches move much better during the day. He is not backed by a solid bullpen.
 

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Cardinals @ Astros
Play: Astros -156
Intrinsic Value: -194
Consider Betting Price: -180
Comment:
I don’t know if I could name another pitcher in the league that I would rather have on the mound at home when playing the role of stopper. Oswalt is the ideal pitcher to end a prolonged losing streak, and has a favorable match up that adds fuel to the fire. Oswalt is downright dominant at this park, coming into this game with a career 2.63 ERA, which makes a 56 basis point price awfully cheap on the surface. He ahs also always pitched this Cardinals team well and has dominated a few of their hitters. He has limited the Pujols effect, allowing just 3 home runs to him in nearly 60 at bats. Oswalt is more prone to having problems against the stacked lineup from the left side, something the Cardinals simply don’t bring to the table. The Astros bats are not the only ones that have been dormant so far this season; the Cardinals continue to struggle at the plate as well. This appears to be a spot in which the Astros receive their first win of the season.

Reyes is a young pitching prospect that has a lot of upside potential, but might be brought too early, as he still isn’t there yet. He has a nasty fastball and curve combo that can overpower any lineup, but location and consistency has plagued him last year, and he is extremely vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 17 last year in just over 80 innings of work. He is just as prone to allowing the long ball to right handed hitters, which is a concern against this lineup and in this park, which is tailor made to allow the home run for right handed hitters. He did not pitch the Astros effectively last year, and having seen him twice, the Astros have an advantage most teams can’t say they do. He lacks ideal stamina and will most certainly be on a small pitch count. I would be surprised to see him go past the 5th, and is backed by a bullpen that has more problems that most people think. They lack the ideal depth to back a pitcher like Reyes. Good value on the favorite in my opinion.
 

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Good luck buffett.. I do like the Nationals today, just too early in the season for me to pull off that kind of crazy play! ;)
 

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A’s @ Angels
Play: Angels -128
Intrinsic Value: -141
Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
There probably isn’t a pitcher in the league that I would rather have pitch to the A’s compared to Lackey. Not only has he consistently dominated them throughout his career, but now has even more extra motivation to get up and pitch against them after last year’s incident with Kendall. Lackey comes into today’s game with a career 2.89 ERA against his division rivals, including dominant starts against them last year. Lackey finished his five games against them last year with a .80 Whip. The A’s lineup might be the worst in the American League, and is prone to being overpowered by a pitcher like Lackey. It is no surprise that he has dominated many of their hitters. Being backed by a top tier bullpen will give the A’s little opportunity to put runs on the board throughout.

Haren is solid, consistent, and pitched much better than his numbers would indicate in his first start. However, he has yet to prove capable of pitching this Angels lineup effectively, as this team really gave him problems last year, as he finished with a 4.71 ERA against them and an OBA approaching .300. As said already once this season, their might not be a lineup in baseball more dependent on one hitter than the Angels are with Guerrero. That said, he has dominated Haren in the past, which gives the Angels a nice embedded advantage in this game.
 

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Other games Intrinsic Values and Price Targets

Brewers IV: -104 PT+115
Cubs IV: +104 PT +119

LAD IV: -130 PT: -118
SF IV +130 PT: +152

Cin: IV -172 PT: -158
Pit: IV +172 PT: +200

SD: IV: -156 PT -141
COL IV +156 PT +183

TOR IV -108 PT +105
TB: IV +108 PT: +126
 

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OSU do you grade buffett as a volunteer? Very cool if you do

great info in this thread...lets get soem units!
 

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Yes, he agreed to allow me to do this in his thread. Keep in mind that his personal results are different as he has a bankroll system for wagering that is much more complex than mine. These results are just based on $100 unit flat plays. (Everyone's actual results will be different because we all get different lines.) I do not post a W-L record for his plays as I feel it is pointless in baseball.

You are coat tailing the BEST if you follow this guy. NO ONE puts more time into posting and write-ups than Buffetgambler. Legit handicapping services charge thousands of dollars per season for this stuff. We are blessed to have it for FREE.
 

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Yes, he agreed to allow me to do this in his thread. Keep in mind that his personal results are different as he has a bankroll system for wagering that is much more complex than mine. These results are just based on $100 unit flat plays. (Everyone's actual results will be different because we all get different lines.) I do not post a W-L record for his plays as I feel it is pointless in baseball.

You are coat tailing the BEST if you follow this guy. NO ONE puts more time into posting and write-ups than Buffetgambler. Legit handicapping services charge thousands of dollars per season for this stuff. We are blessed to have it for FREE.

Quite a compliment. Thanks.
 

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Quite a compliment. Thanks.



very true as well, you are solid as they come bro! if anyone chooses to just follow until they learn on their own you would be one of the 2 or 3 i'd reccomend. not only do you win you provide insight into how to handicapp the game as well, thanks for your contribution and though i may not always comment on your card i will always look and rarely go against any of your plays.
 

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Thanks Teazeman.

Adding yet another home team to the mix, as their appears to be a road bias set by the books and public today.



Rockies @ Padres
Play: Padres -138
Intrinsic Value: -156
Consider Betting Price: -141
Comment:

I am not a big fan of Wells, especially this late in his career, but I do like him in this situational spot. The Rockies lineup is loaded with young talent that does not get the credit they deserve. However, it is a young lineup that tends to be over aggressive at times and is better suited going up against power pitchers. Wells crafty style will work this in his favor and work their inexperience in his favor. He also needs this spacious park to be effective, and has pitched well in this career here, allowing just 7 home runs in over 120 innings pitched, which should be able to curtail the effects of the Rockies power and propensity to drive in runs via the long ball. Wells is another lefy finesse pitcher that likes to work the corners, making his performances more correlated to the home plate umpires strike zone than most starters. Expect him to work Haun’s generous zone in his favor. He is backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which gives them a good opportunity to silence the Rockies potent lineup.

Fogg never lived up to his potential, and probably never will. He is consistently bad, and rarely puts solid games together. He is one of the more hittable pitchers in the league, and is getting more hittable as seasons progress. Last year, he really struggled against the Padres and it is know surprise. Over the course of his career, he has been one of the least effective pitchers against left handed hitters. In fact, they are batting over .300 against him lifetime. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Padres will more than likely put at least four left handed bats in the lineup in this game. He is not known to go deep into games either, especially early in the season. The Rockies do not have as good of a bullpen as they had last year.
 

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will you always post before the first game of the day? today i waited until about 11am EST and you didn't post, but then when i got back home i saw your post. well, i'll just hop on this site around noon EST and hopefully you've posted your selections. really like your information and selections.
 

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will you always post before the first game of the day? today i waited until about 11am EST and you didn't post, but then when i got back home i saw your post. well, i'll just hop on this site around noon EST and hopefully you've posted your selections. really like your information and selections.

Ninja,
I will post most of my games before the first game of the day. However, due to line movements throughout the day, games I wasn't planning to bet on hit my target and become a play. So I have a tendency of adding games. I will try to post the intrinsic value and price target of every game I have not yet bet before game time, so you will get a better feel of what might be potential plays.

Good luck.
 

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CHA-CHING just another +4.00 unit day. If you are not paying attention to this guy you are missing the boat. This is going to be a great season.
 

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this is too much work..have to thanks you everyday :103631605 well thanks again!!!
 

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