With Bookie Buster’s permission, I am importing the baseball-related portion of the service plays that he posts (mixed with hoops plays) over in the NBA forum. When the NBA season is over, BB will be posting these service plays over here in the bases forum.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
I have been recording and tracking the bases service plays via Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. On the spreadsheet you will find each services daily record (when plays are available), as well as a running season record and an overall win percentage.
<o></o>
Note: BB shares whatever service plays he can obtain, there is no guarantee as to which services will bet available on a day-to-day basis. Therefore I can only track and record the ones that are provided. That’s why on my spreadsheet you will see “NA” marked on the days that plays were unable to be obtained.
<o></o>
BOXER SPORTS
(2*) New York Mets
(2*) Florida Marlins
(2*) Pittsburgh Pirates
(2*) Boston Red Sox
Bryan Leonard - Bonus Play
PICK: Florida Marlins
Offered at: -115 Sportsbook
The Marlins are being dismissed nationally as a contender, but this is a very talented team. You may not know many of the players, but look deeper and you'll find considerable talent. 2B Dan Uggla, for instance, batted .282, hit 27 home runs, had 90 RBI and scored 105 runs while batting second in the lineup in 2006. New manager Fredi Gonzalez, 2006 Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis believe it, though. Willis the last 3 years against the Phillies has a 3.56 ERA in 83.1 innings, allowing just 68 hits with 16 walks and 61 Ks. Philadephia has hit just .215 off him! The home team has the better ace. PLAY THE MARLINS<o></o>
<o></o>
Michael Cannon Money Train
20 DIME PLAYS -
ANGELS (With Lackey as listed pitcher)
5 DIME PLAYS -
TWINS (With Silva and Vazquez as listed pitchers)
MARLINS (With Willis as listed pitcher)
ROCKIES (With Fogg and Wells as listed pitchers)
<o></o>
Dave M. - Bonus Play
PICK: over 10
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA/CHICAGO WHITE SOX Over
We had this one pegged as a 4* before the weather caused a cancellation on Friday night, and while it is a slightly different game now, we are still involved. So first, let’s refresh by going back through the Friday analysis.
Numbers can often mislead, but in this case they do not. The White Sox took an 0-5 collar against the Twins with Javier Vazquez on the mound LY, with his 6.83 in those games giving them little chance to compete. It was nothing new for Vazquez, who has a lifetime 6.52 against Minnesota, getting just one lone victory, and there is nothing from this spring to create any fear of him getting out of the box any differently. But Ozzie Guillen is in a position in which he needs for a starter to eat some innings, especially with a day game coming up on Saturday. Nick Masset is a scratch from the bullpen tonight after working 4.2 innings on Thursday afternoon, while Mike MacDougal and Matt Thornton have each worked consecutive days and badly need a night off. Even closer Bobby Jenks carries a fatigue rating, throwing 24 pitches after being brought in earlier than usual vs. Cleveland yesterday. It can be ugly early with Vazquez, and then perhaps get even worse.
Meanwhile Carlos Silva was one of our favorite play-against staters LY, with the A.L. hitters having caught up to his pedestrian stuff, and no one pelted him harder than the White Sox, to the tune of 7.82 over 25.1 innings. The fact that he is in the starting rotation again merely tells us about the state of affairs in Minnesota, with Brad Radke having retired, Francisco Liriano out for the season, and Matt Garza in need of more seasoning at AAA before being called back up. Left-handers mashed him to an ugly .586 slugging percentage LY and Chicago loads up well from that side of the plate, which should mean even more struggles to a guy that had a lousy spring and brings no confidence to the table.
While cold weather can indeed be a factor, many of the players from these teams live in it in the early and late stages of every season, and the White Sox have already had multiple games under these conditions to get acclimated. These are not power arms that can get the ball past hitters that are not loose at the plate; instead these are pitchers that will allow a lot of contact, and much of that will be very hard contact.
OK, now some things have changed. We lose a little value because the Chicago bullpen got a needed off day on Friday. But the gain is putting Silva and Vazquez out there in the daytime, and while it will be a cold afternoon on the South Side, it will be warmer for the first pitch here than it would have been last night. That is enough to have us right back in play here, in a game in which each offense should have ample opportunities to produce.
Big Al McMordie
Bonus Play: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago (A) White Sox
At 3:55pm our complimentary selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox. White Sox starter Javier Vazquez is the quintesential "talented" pitcher who gets tons of strikeouts. There's only one small problem. His ERA. It's astronomical. That's basically the same as saying a particular hockey player can fight, but only has one problem...he can't skate. Unfortunately, Vazquez isn't much use to the Sox (just like he wasn't much use to the other 3 teams he played for), but they will keep him on their roster, at least for now. His ERA the last 3 years as a full-time starter was 4.91 (Yankees in 2004), 4.42 (D-Backs in 2005), and 4.84 (this same Chicago team last season). And now Buehrle is hurting for the Sox (forearm), which gives this human batting practice machine even more job security for the time being. The Twins are red hot (off to an undefeated start in 2007) and they absolutely owned Vazquez last season, going an incredible 5-0 in games that he started. It doesn't get much more dominating than that and Carlos Silva is the absolute antithesis of Vazquez, being a low-strikeout, low walk, low ERA type of hurler (throw out Silva's disasterous 2006 season as he was hampered by nagging injuries). The loss of Francisco Liriano for the season may be too much for the Twins to overcome (2008 may be the season they win it all) but look for them to compete most of the way in 2007. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Al McMordie lost his underdog MLB play last night, and looks to rebound with a winner in the NBA today that has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it. Big Al's on a major league winning roll in Hoops, having cashed 12 of 15, and Al's ranked in the Top 5 this year in the NBA by The Sports Monitor. Get Big Al's #1 Hoops play right now.
CAPPERS ACCESS
<o></o>
(Sat) MLB Brewers
(Sat) MLB Tigers
<o></o>
ATS Financial Package
<o></o>
Baseball Financial Package.
3 units on the LA Angels (-135) over the Oakland A's, 9:00
3 units on the LA Dodgers (-140) over the San Francisco Giants, 3:00
curry bagwell saturday
Washington +130
NY Mets +105
St. Louis-Houston Over 8 +100
Chicago White Sox -130
Tampa Bay-Toronto Over 10 1/2 +105
Psychic Sports
2 units Philadelphia +105
2 units Pitt +155
3 units Boston +118
Gator Report for Saturday (confirmed-paid)
MLB: (Saturday) Play On MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 when their bullpen had an ERA of 3.33 or better last season now facing a division opponent.
(33-14 since 1997.) (70.2%) PLAY: Minnesota +120
NSA
10* MLB Boston +120
10* MLB Detroit -125
10* MLB Mets +105
M@linsky
Over Twins
Mets
D. Backs
under Angels
Chris Jordan
200 - Braves And Under And Twins Over.
Chris Jordan:
200* Braves and 200* UNDER
200* CWS/Twins OVER
Matt *****
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves 3:55 PM ET
New York Mets (Glavine) +120
The Mets have started the season 4-0 and they have yet to be challenged as both offense and pitching have been dominant. They are averaging 7.8 rpg on offense while the opposition has yet to score more than a run against the pitching as they lead the league in ERA at 0.75. Tom Glavine started the run with a solid outing against St. Louis and he is back to face his former team once again. Glavine struggled against the Braves the first few times he had faced them but he has since been very dominating for the most part.
During his first 11 starts against the Braves, Glavine was 1-8 with a 6.94 ERA. His last effort against Atlanta was a rough one but prior to that, he tossed five straight quality starts. He had a 3.32 ERA in three starts against the Braves in 2006 and that included the one blowup. Glavine has gone 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA in his past six starts against his former team. The Braves are hitting only .176 against lefties so far this season and are 1-1 against southpaw starters after going 18-23 last year against left-handed starters.
John Smoltz got a no decision in his first start this year against the Phillies which was a very average outing. The Braves did get the win but it improved their record to just 4-7 in his April starts since 2004 as he has struggled out of the gate in recent years. He has been masterful against the Mets over the last two seasons but with the way New York is swinging the bat, that likely won’t carry over. The Mets lead the National League in hitting and on-base percentage while their 31 runs are tops in the Majors.
The New York bullpen has yet to allow an earned run this season which doesn’t come as much of a surprise seeing that the Mets led the National League last season with a bullpen ERA of 3.28. Play on underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 who had a very good bullpen last season with an ERA of 3.33 or better when facing division opponents. This situation is 33-14 against the moneyline (70.2 percent) since 1997, good for close to 25 Units of profit. The Mets keep it rolling along on Saturday.
Play New York Mets 1 Unit
<o></o>
Ben Burns' Fox TV Game of the Week
<o></o>
Braves
<o></o>
Doc Sports
2* Milwakee
2* Minn/Chic Over
4* Boston
Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Apr 7 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: Tampa Bay starter Casey Fossum was lit up by Toronto last year allowing 16 runs in 16.1 innings of work. The Devil Rays are in a 40-14 Play Against System that says to play against any MLB in their first 12 games of the season if they lost 11 or more of their last 15 games last year. Toronto starter Tomo Ohka is 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA in five career starts vs. Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are 12-6 their last 18 games at the Devil Rays. 10* Play On Toronto - (Ohka vs. Fossum
Gold Key Plays
Baltimore Trachsel -R +1.5 Runs, -105 Over YANKEES (MLB, 10:05 pacific)
Power Play of the Day (One Play a Day)
Det Tigers
Proffit Plays
NYYankees
NY Mets
Detroit
Bob Balfe:
White Sox -130 over Twins Vazquez/Silva
<o></o>
Charlie
CUBS under 7' (10*)
TOR -125 (10*) Bonus Play
<o></o>
Brandon Lang
15* CHI SOX
10* FLA
5* OAK
5* SEA
<o></o>
Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Apr 7 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Reason: The Dodgers are off two wire-to-wire one-run wins and are now significantly favored in San Francisco. The value here is certainly with the Giants. The league is 48-62 as a road favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and 23-37 on the road when they are off TWO wins in which they never trailed.
The Giants actually out-hit the Dodgers 12-8 yesterday, but poor base-running and clutch hitting cost them the game. History is on the side of the Giants here, as the league is 53-51 as a DOG after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.
MTi’s FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 5 LA Dodgers 4
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB day game<o></o>
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Det Tigers at 2:10 ET. Mike Maroth made 100 starts for the Tigers from 2003-05, going 34-48 (4.90) with Detroit going 45-55 in those starts. Unfortunately for Mike, when the Tigers were able to "put it all together" last year, Maroth was sidelined with an injury, after just 13 appearances (nine starts). He was pitching fairly well, as the Tigers had won seven of those nine starts. Here, he gets his first chance of 2007 and he'll face a KC team that has not only lost 100-plus games in each of the last three seasons, but went 13-36 vs left-handers last year. Detroit dominated KC in 2006, winning 14 of 18 games, including all NINE in KC. However, the Tigers were held to just five hits and just one run last night, as the Royals won, 3-1. This afternoon, the Royals will send the team's major FA acquisition to the mound, Gil Meche. Meche was signed to a $55 million deal in the off-season, despite the fact that in six seasons, he had just one year of more than 11 wins and an overall mark of only 55-44 (4.65). However, Meche was sharp in his season debut, holding the Red Sox to six hits and one run in 7.1 innings. Do you think that will last? I sure don't and with KC's lack of success vs lefties plus the Tigers' domination of KC last year (also note Tigers were plus-$1,700 on the road LY at $100/game), I'm backing Maroth in his first starts since May 25 of last year. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Det Tigers.
FPBE Free Picks
Matty O'Shea - KC +118 (MLB)
Ben Burns - MIL -115 (MLB)
Tony George - KC +118 (MLB)
Larry Ness - MIN/CHW over 10 (MLB)
JB Sports - NYM +105 (MLB)
Premium Picks from InfoPlays April 7
6* on Chicago White Sox -120
The Sox got on the board with their first win of the season yesterday and they'll keep rolling against the Twins who will find their first loss of the season easily today having to play away from the dome in chilly Chicago. We'll make this play against Silva here today. Silva is just 2-11 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Silva isn't the guy you want going for you on the road. We'll take advantage here.
Sebastian
7* White Sox
7* Cleveland (game 1 Sabathia vs. Weaver)
7* Toronto
10* Arizona
10* Dodgers Run Line (-1.5)
Trev Rogers
1. Dodgers vs. Giants OVER 9
2. Rockies +135
3. Rockies vs. Padres OVER
A Play
20* Vip - Padres Under
DAVE COKIN
GAME OF THE WEEK -- New York Mets
Under the Hat -- Florida Marlins
Window Play -- Blue Jays
(3*) Los Angeles Angels
(3*) Cincinnati Reds (RL)
JIM FIEST
Platimum -- Florida Marlins
(4*) Boston Red Sox
(3*) Los Angeles Angels
LENNY STEVENS
Philadelphia Phillies
Scott Sprietzer
White Sox
***ADDED PLAYS***
(5*) Kansas City Royals
Professional-Plays
3-Units Toronto -125
Jim Hurley's Hit & Run Baseball
3* Giants (Ortiz) +125 over Dodgers (Lowe)
3* Angels (Lackey) -135 over A's (Haren)
<o></o>
Razor Sharp
YOUR FREE WINNER FOR SATURDAY:
SAN DIEGO (Wells) -145 over Colorado
<o></o>
Jimmy The Moose comp
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Apr 7 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: The Jays send Ohka to the mound tonight and he's coming off a very impressive spring. Toronto is 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. left-handed starters. In their last 5 home games as an undergog of +110 - +150 the Devil Rays are 1-4. Tampa is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings with Toronto. The Jays have won 6 of the last 9 meetings between the clubs in Tampa. Toronto blew it in the 9th last night but come back on Saturday with a win. Play on the Blue Jays
<o></o>
BRYAN LEONARD
Today's Free Pick
PICK: Florida Marlins
REASON FOR PICK: The Marlins are being dismissed nationally as a contender, but this is a very talented team. You may not know many of the players, but look deeper and you'll find considerable talent. 2B Dan Uggla, for instance, batted .282, hit 27 home runs, had 90 RBI and scored 105 runs while batting second in the lineup in 2006. New manager Fredi Gonzalez, 2006 Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis believe it, though. Willis the last 3 years against the Phillies has a 3.56 ERA in 83.1 innings, allowing just 68 hits with 16 walks and 61 Ks. Philadephia has hit just .215 off him! The home team has the better ace. PLAY THE MARLINS
<o></o>
DAVE MALINSKY
Today's Free Pick
4* MINNESOTA/CHICAGO WHITE SOX Over
the super best bet
chicago cubs
<o></o>
Terry’s Teasers
<o></o>
Dodgers (D Lowe) vs Giants (R Ortiz)(FOX) 03:55 pm Dodgers -145 Listed Pitchers
Tigers (M Maroth) vs Royals (G Meche) 02:10 pm Tigers -135 Listed Pitchers
Athletics (D Haren) vs Angels (J Lackey) 09:05 pm Angels -135 Listed Pitchers
Mets (T Glavine) vs Braves (J Smoltz)(FOX) 03:55 pm Mets +110
Cardinals (AN Reyes) vs Astros (R Oswalt) 07:05 pm Cardinals +150
Twins (C Silva) vs White Sox (J Vasquez)(FOX) 03:55 pm Twins +115
<o></o>
PLAY PITT+150 FOR $50 TO WIN $75
THEN DID A IF BET PARLAY OFF PITT
Dodgers (D Lowe) vs Giants (R Ortiz)(FOX) 03:55 pm Dodgers -145 Listed Pitchers
Mets (T Glavine) vs Braves (J Smoltz)(FOX) 03:55 pm Mets +110 Listed Pitchers
Phillies (B Myers) vs Marlins (D Willis) 07:05 pm Marlins -125 Listed Pitchers
Cardinals (AN Reyes) vs Astros (R Oswalt) 07:05 pm Cardinals +150 Listed Pitchers
Tigers (M Maroth) vs Royals (G Meche) 02:10 pm Tigers -135 Listed Pitchers
Twins (C Silva) vs White Sox (J Vasquez)(FOX) 03:55 pm Twins +115 Listed Pitchers
Blue Jays (T Ohka) vs Devil Rays (C Fossum) 07:10 pm Blue Jays -135 Listed Pitchers
Red Sox (J Tavarez) vs Rangers (K Millwood) 08:05 pm Red Sox +115 Listed Pitchers
Athletics (D Haren) vs Angels (J Lackey) 09:05 pm Angels -135 Listed Pitchers
Wager Amount: $75.45 to win $56002.86
Bet Placed: Saturday, April 7, 2007 at 09:58 am
If Bet: Action Pending WIN on #S-11300158
<o></o>
DETROIT (Maroth) -130 over KANSAS CITY (Meche)
BEST BET<o></o>
<o></o>
The Royals got a fine performance out of free agent Gil Meche to open the season, but with this team he will inevitably get tagged with a number of losses, and the first one should come today. The Tigers are far more talented, and managed to post huge road profits in 2006 (+$1700). The Royals, on the other hand, were only 13-36 against lefthanders (-$1405), and let's not forget how effective Mike Maroth was in nine starts last year before being sidelined with injuries (+$520, 3.56 ERA). The price on this game is very reasonable considering the disparity in talent.
<o></o>
MASTER SPORTS
<o></o>
BRAVES
B. JAYS
Saturday Baseball Grand Slam
Reds (Harang) -165 over Pirates (Armas)
Mets (Glavine) +110 over Braves (Smoltz)
Devil Rays (Fossum) +120 over Blue Jays (Ohka)
Angels (Lackey) -135 over A's (Haren)
Brandon Lang Write Up<o></o>
<o></o>
15 DIME
White Sox
10 DIME
Marlins
5 DIME
A's
Mariners
WHITE SOX
The ppd game yesterday isn't enough to get me off the White Sox.I just like Vazquez all that much more today.First of all, the Twins haven't started 4-0 in over 20 years. There is a reason why. It's just hard to do.Next, I am not a Silva fan. He was 11-15 over 31 starts last year and if you think that isn't very good, look at his numbers at U.S.Cellular Field.In 3 starts, he is 1-2 with an 8.10 ERA giving up 30 hits including 8 homers in just 16 2/3 innings.I will back the White Sox and look for Silva to continue to struggle at Chicago.
MARLINS
I learned since he came up in the big leagues that you ride Dontrelle Willis in April. Simple as that.Willis, who won his first start this year over Washington allowing 1 earned over 6 inning in a 9-2 win.He is 10-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 16 career April starts - his best winning percentage and lowest ERA in any month. The ERA also is the lowest among active pitchers with at least eight lifetime April starts. It doesn't get much better than that.Now he faces a Phillies team that he is 6-5 with an era just over 3.Now the Marlins get to face Brett Myers, who is 5-5 with a 4.44 ERA in 17 career starts against the Marlins. I am riding Willis and his hot April streak today.
SEATTLE
Providing it doesn't snow today, I am backing Jeff Weaver over Sabathia.Sabathia has not been as dominant at home than he has been on the road throughout his six-year career. In 88 home starts, Sabathia is 33-31 with a 3.97 ERA. On the road he is 49-25. He is also just 0-2 with a 3.48 at home versus Seattle.I think the cold weather gets to him today before it gets to Weaver.Jeff Weaver is 5-5 in 12 appearances versus Cleveland and I feel he will be on the money back in the American league.I am on the nice dog Mariners in the frigid cold weather today.
OAKLAND
Like the A's today.I just feel Lackey is going to get hit today.He was let off the hook by the Rangers in a performance that wasn't as good as you would be led to believe.Yes, he did shut them out over 5 innings but he was in trouble almost every inning.The A's match up well against him as does Haren against this Angels lineup.Haren was a hard luck loser in his opening start, going 6 innings allowing no earned runs but took the loss at Seattle.These two battle hard against each other as this series is 1 apiece rolling into today.
My dollar is on the nice dog A's to get another win over their A.L.West rival.
Chris Jordan write-up<o></o>
<o></o>
OVER ChiSox/Twins - Neither pitcher was impressive in their respective roles last season, as Silva was 4-9 with a 7.54 ERA on the highway, and Vasquez is a dismal 0-4 in last five starts versus Minnesota. He has given up 22 earned runs in those games, spanning 30 innings.
When Silva travels to the South Side, he's 0-3, and has given up 18 earned runs dating back to last season. This is an Over.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
I have been recording and tracking the bases service plays via Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. On the spreadsheet you will find each services daily record (when plays are available), as well as a running season record and an overall win percentage.
<o></o>
Note: BB shares whatever service plays he can obtain, there is no guarantee as to which services will bet available on a day-to-day basis. Therefore I can only track and record the ones that are provided. That’s why on my spreadsheet you will see “NA” marked on the days that plays were unable to be obtained.
<o></o>
BOXER SPORTS
(2*) New York Mets
(2*) Florida Marlins
(2*) Pittsburgh Pirates
(2*) Boston Red Sox
Bryan Leonard - Bonus Play
PICK: Florida Marlins
Offered at: -115 Sportsbook
The Marlins are being dismissed nationally as a contender, but this is a very talented team. You may not know many of the players, but look deeper and you'll find considerable talent. 2B Dan Uggla, for instance, batted .282, hit 27 home runs, had 90 RBI and scored 105 runs while batting second in the lineup in 2006. New manager Fredi Gonzalez, 2006 Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis believe it, though. Willis the last 3 years against the Phillies has a 3.56 ERA in 83.1 innings, allowing just 68 hits with 16 walks and 61 Ks. Philadephia has hit just .215 off him! The home team has the better ace. PLAY THE MARLINS<o></o>
<o></o>
Michael Cannon Money Train
20 DIME PLAYS -
ANGELS (With Lackey as listed pitcher)
5 DIME PLAYS -
TWINS (With Silva and Vazquez as listed pitchers)
MARLINS (With Willis as listed pitcher)
ROCKIES (With Fogg and Wells as listed pitchers)
<o></o>
Dave M. - Bonus Play
PICK: over 10
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA/CHICAGO WHITE SOX Over
We had this one pegged as a 4* before the weather caused a cancellation on Friday night, and while it is a slightly different game now, we are still involved. So first, let’s refresh by going back through the Friday analysis.
Numbers can often mislead, but in this case they do not. The White Sox took an 0-5 collar against the Twins with Javier Vazquez on the mound LY, with his 6.83 in those games giving them little chance to compete. It was nothing new for Vazquez, who has a lifetime 6.52 against Minnesota, getting just one lone victory, and there is nothing from this spring to create any fear of him getting out of the box any differently. But Ozzie Guillen is in a position in which he needs for a starter to eat some innings, especially with a day game coming up on Saturday. Nick Masset is a scratch from the bullpen tonight after working 4.2 innings on Thursday afternoon, while Mike MacDougal and Matt Thornton have each worked consecutive days and badly need a night off. Even closer Bobby Jenks carries a fatigue rating, throwing 24 pitches after being brought in earlier than usual vs. Cleveland yesterday. It can be ugly early with Vazquez, and then perhaps get even worse.
Meanwhile Carlos Silva was one of our favorite play-against staters LY, with the A.L. hitters having caught up to his pedestrian stuff, and no one pelted him harder than the White Sox, to the tune of 7.82 over 25.1 innings. The fact that he is in the starting rotation again merely tells us about the state of affairs in Minnesota, with Brad Radke having retired, Francisco Liriano out for the season, and Matt Garza in need of more seasoning at AAA before being called back up. Left-handers mashed him to an ugly .586 slugging percentage LY and Chicago loads up well from that side of the plate, which should mean even more struggles to a guy that had a lousy spring and brings no confidence to the table.
While cold weather can indeed be a factor, many of the players from these teams live in it in the early and late stages of every season, and the White Sox have already had multiple games under these conditions to get acclimated. These are not power arms that can get the ball past hitters that are not loose at the plate; instead these are pitchers that will allow a lot of contact, and much of that will be very hard contact.
OK, now some things have changed. We lose a little value because the Chicago bullpen got a needed off day on Friday. But the gain is putting Silva and Vazquez out there in the daytime, and while it will be a cold afternoon on the South Side, it will be warmer for the first pitch here than it would have been last night. That is enough to have us right back in play here, in a game in which each offense should have ample opportunities to produce.
Big Al McMordie
Bonus Play: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago (A) White Sox
At 3:55pm our complimentary selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox. White Sox starter Javier Vazquez is the quintesential "talented" pitcher who gets tons of strikeouts. There's only one small problem. His ERA. It's astronomical. That's basically the same as saying a particular hockey player can fight, but only has one problem...he can't skate. Unfortunately, Vazquez isn't much use to the Sox (just like he wasn't much use to the other 3 teams he played for), but they will keep him on their roster, at least for now. His ERA the last 3 years as a full-time starter was 4.91 (Yankees in 2004), 4.42 (D-Backs in 2005), and 4.84 (this same Chicago team last season). And now Buehrle is hurting for the Sox (forearm), which gives this human batting practice machine even more job security for the time being. The Twins are red hot (off to an undefeated start in 2007) and they absolutely owned Vazquez last season, going an incredible 5-0 in games that he started. It doesn't get much more dominating than that and Carlos Silva is the absolute antithesis of Vazquez, being a low-strikeout, low walk, low ERA type of hurler (throw out Silva's disasterous 2006 season as he was hampered by nagging injuries). The loss of Francisco Liriano for the season may be too much for the Twins to overcome (2008 may be the season they win it all) but look for them to compete most of the way in 2007. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Al McMordie lost his underdog MLB play last night, and looks to rebound with a winner in the NBA today that has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it. Big Al's on a major league winning roll in Hoops, having cashed 12 of 15, and Al's ranked in the Top 5 this year in the NBA by The Sports Monitor. Get Big Al's #1 Hoops play right now.
CAPPERS ACCESS
<o></o>
(Sat) MLB Brewers
(Sat) MLB Tigers
<o></o>
ATS Financial Package
<o></o>
Baseball Financial Package.
3 units on the LA Angels (-135) over the Oakland A's, 9:00
3 units on the LA Dodgers (-140) over the San Francisco Giants, 3:00
curry bagwell saturday
Washington +130
NY Mets +105
St. Louis-Houston Over 8 +100
Chicago White Sox -130
Tampa Bay-Toronto Over 10 1/2 +105
Psychic Sports
2 units Philadelphia +105
2 units Pitt +155
3 units Boston +118
Gator Report for Saturday (confirmed-paid)
MLB: (Saturday) Play On MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 when their bullpen had an ERA of 3.33 or better last season now facing a division opponent.
(33-14 since 1997.) (70.2%) PLAY: Minnesota +120
NSA
10* MLB Boston +120
10* MLB Detroit -125
10* MLB Mets +105
M@linsky
Over Twins
Mets
D. Backs
under Angels
Chris Jordan
200 - Braves And Under And Twins Over.
Chris Jordan:
200* Braves and 200* UNDER
200* CWS/Twins OVER
Matt *****
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves 3:55 PM ET
New York Mets (Glavine) +120
The Mets have started the season 4-0 and they have yet to be challenged as both offense and pitching have been dominant. They are averaging 7.8 rpg on offense while the opposition has yet to score more than a run against the pitching as they lead the league in ERA at 0.75. Tom Glavine started the run with a solid outing against St. Louis and he is back to face his former team once again. Glavine struggled against the Braves the first few times he had faced them but he has since been very dominating for the most part.
During his first 11 starts against the Braves, Glavine was 1-8 with a 6.94 ERA. His last effort against Atlanta was a rough one but prior to that, he tossed five straight quality starts. He had a 3.32 ERA in three starts against the Braves in 2006 and that included the one blowup. Glavine has gone 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA in his past six starts against his former team. The Braves are hitting only .176 against lefties so far this season and are 1-1 against southpaw starters after going 18-23 last year against left-handed starters.
John Smoltz got a no decision in his first start this year against the Phillies which was a very average outing. The Braves did get the win but it improved their record to just 4-7 in his April starts since 2004 as he has struggled out of the gate in recent years. He has been masterful against the Mets over the last two seasons but with the way New York is swinging the bat, that likely won’t carry over. The Mets lead the National League in hitting and on-base percentage while their 31 runs are tops in the Majors.
The New York bullpen has yet to allow an earned run this season which doesn’t come as much of a surprise seeing that the Mets led the National League last season with a bullpen ERA of 3.28. Play on underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 who had a very good bullpen last season with an ERA of 3.33 or better when facing division opponents. This situation is 33-14 against the moneyline (70.2 percent) since 1997, good for close to 25 Units of profit. The Mets keep it rolling along on Saturday.
Play New York Mets 1 Unit
<o></o>
Ben Burns' Fox TV Game of the Week
<o></o>
Braves
<o></o>
Doc Sports
2* Milwakee
2* Minn/Chic Over
4* Boston
Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Apr 7 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: Tampa Bay starter Casey Fossum was lit up by Toronto last year allowing 16 runs in 16.1 innings of work. The Devil Rays are in a 40-14 Play Against System that says to play against any MLB in their first 12 games of the season if they lost 11 or more of their last 15 games last year. Toronto starter Tomo Ohka is 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA in five career starts vs. Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are 12-6 their last 18 games at the Devil Rays. 10* Play On Toronto - (Ohka vs. Fossum
Gold Key Plays
Baltimore Trachsel -R +1.5 Runs, -105 Over YANKEES (MLB, 10:05 pacific)
Power Play of the Day (One Play a Day)
Det Tigers
Proffit Plays
NYYankees
NY Mets
Detroit
Bob Balfe:
White Sox -130 over Twins Vazquez/Silva
<o></o>
Charlie
CUBS under 7' (10*)
TOR -125 (10*) Bonus Play
<o></o>
Brandon Lang
15* CHI SOX
10* FLA
5* OAK
5* SEA
<o></o>
Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Apr 7 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Reason: The Dodgers are off two wire-to-wire one-run wins and are now significantly favored in San Francisco. The value here is certainly with the Giants. The league is 48-62 as a road favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and 23-37 on the road when they are off TWO wins in which they never trailed.
The Giants actually out-hit the Dodgers 12-8 yesterday, but poor base-running and clutch hitting cost them the game. History is on the side of the Giants here, as the league is 53-51 as a DOG after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.
MTi’s FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 5 LA Dodgers 4
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB day game<o></o>
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Det Tigers at 2:10 ET. Mike Maroth made 100 starts for the Tigers from 2003-05, going 34-48 (4.90) with Detroit going 45-55 in those starts. Unfortunately for Mike, when the Tigers were able to "put it all together" last year, Maroth was sidelined with an injury, after just 13 appearances (nine starts). He was pitching fairly well, as the Tigers had won seven of those nine starts. Here, he gets his first chance of 2007 and he'll face a KC team that has not only lost 100-plus games in each of the last three seasons, but went 13-36 vs left-handers last year. Detroit dominated KC in 2006, winning 14 of 18 games, including all NINE in KC. However, the Tigers were held to just five hits and just one run last night, as the Royals won, 3-1. This afternoon, the Royals will send the team's major FA acquisition to the mound, Gil Meche. Meche was signed to a $55 million deal in the off-season, despite the fact that in six seasons, he had just one year of more than 11 wins and an overall mark of only 55-44 (4.65). However, Meche was sharp in his season debut, holding the Red Sox to six hits and one run in 7.1 innings. Do you think that will last? I sure don't and with KC's lack of success vs lefties plus the Tigers' domination of KC last year (also note Tigers were plus-$1,700 on the road LY at $100/game), I'm backing Maroth in his first starts since May 25 of last year. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Det Tigers.
FPBE Free Picks
Matty O'Shea - KC +118 (MLB)
Ben Burns - MIL -115 (MLB)
Tony George - KC +118 (MLB)
Larry Ness - MIN/CHW over 10 (MLB)
JB Sports - NYM +105 (MLB)
Premium Picks from InfoPlays April 7
6* on Chicago White Sox -120
The Sox got on the board with their first win of the season yesterday and they'll keep rolling against the Twins who will find their first loss of the season easily today having to play away from the dome in chilly Chicago. We'll make this play against Silva here today. Silva is just 2-11 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Silva isn't the guy you want going for you on the road. We'll take advantage here.
Sebastian
7* White Sox
7* Cleveland (game 1 Sabathia vs. Weaver)
7* Toronto
10* Arizona
10* Dodgers Run Line (-1.5)
Trev Rogers
1. Dodgers vs. Giants OVER 9
2. Rockies +135
3. Rockies vs. Padres OVER
A Play
20* Vip - Padres Under
DAVE COKIN
GAME OF THE WEEK -- New York Mets
Under the Hat -- Florida Marlins
Window Play -- Blue Jays
(3*) Los Angeles Angels
(3*) Cincinnati Reds (RL)
JIM FIEST
Platimum -- Florida Marlins
(4*) Boston Red Sox
(3*) Los Angeles Angels
LENNY STEVENS
Philadelphia Phillies
Scott Sprietzer
White Sox
***ADDED PLAYS***
(5*) Kansas City Royals
Professional-Plays
3-Units Toronto -125
Jim Hurley's Hit & Run Baseball
3* Giants (Ortiz) +125 over Dodgers (Lowe)
3* Angels (Lackey) -135 over A's (Haren)
<o></o>
Razor Sharp
YOUR FREE WINNER FOR SATURDAY:
SAN DIEGO (Wells) -145 over Colorado
<o></o>
Jimmy The Moose comp
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Apr 7 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: The Jays send Ohka to the mound tonight and he's coming off a very impressive spring. Toronto is 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. left-handed starters. In their last 5 home games as an undergog of +110 - +150 the Devil Rays are 1-4. Tampa is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings with Toronto. The Jays have won 6 of the last 9 meetings between the clubs in Tampa. Toronto blew it in the 9th last night but come back on Saturday with a win. Play on the Blue Jays
<o></o>
BRYAN LEONARD
Today's Free Pick
PICK: Florida Marlins
REASON FOR PICK: The Marlins are being dismissed nationally as a contender, but this is a very talented team. You may not know many of the players, but look deeper and you'll find considerable talent. 2B Dan Uggla, for instance, batted .282, hit 27 home runs, had 90 RBI and scored 105 runs while batting second in the lineup in 2006. New manager Fredi Gonzalez, 2006 Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis believe it, though. Willis the last 3 years against the Phillies has a 3.56 ERA in 83.1 innings, allowing just 68 hits with 16 walks and 61 Ks. Philadephia has hit just .215 off him! The home team has the better ace. PLAY THE MARLINS
<o></o>
DAVE MALINSKY
Today's Free Pick
4* MINNESOTA/CHICAGO WHITE SOX Over
the super best bet
chicago cubs
<o></o>
Terry’s Teasers
<o></o>
Dodgers (D Lowe) vs Giants (R Ortiz)(FOX) 03:55 pm Dodgers -145 Listed Pitchers
Tigers (M Maroth) vs Royals (G Meche) 02:10 pm Tigers -135 Listed Pitchers
Athletics (D Haren) vs Angels (J Lackey) 09:05 pm Angels -135 Listed Pitchers
Mets (T Glavine) vs Braves (J Smoltz)(FOX) 03:55 pm Mets +110
Cardinals (AN Reyes) vs Astros (R Oswalt) 07:05 pm Cardinals +150
Twins (C Silva) vs White Sox (J Vasquez)(FOX) 03:55 pm Twins +115
<o></o>
PLAY PITT+150 FOR $50 TO WIN $75
THEN DID A IF BET PARLAY OFF PITT
Dodgers (D Lowe) vs Giants (R Ortiz)(FOX) 03:55 pm Dodgers -145 Listed Pitchers
Mets (T Glavine) vs Braves (J Smoltz)(FOX) 03:55 pm Mets +110 Listed Pitchers
Phillies (B Myers) vs Marlins (D Willis) 07:05 pm Marlins -125 Listed Pitchers
Cardinals (AN Reyes) vs Astros (R Oswalt) 07:05 pm Cardinals +150 Listed Pitchers
Tigers (M Maroth) vs Royals (G Meche) 02:10 pm Tigers -135 Listed Pitchers
Twins (C Silva) vs White Sox (J Vasquez)(FOX) 03:55 pm Twins +115 Listed Pitchers
Blue Jays (T Ohka) vs Devil Rays (C Fossum) 07:10 pm Blue Jays -135 Listed Pitchers
Red Sox (J Tavarez) vs Rangers (K Millwood) 08:05 pm Red Sox +115 Listed Pitchers
Athletics (D Haren) vs Angels (J Lackey) 09:05 pm Angels -135 Listed Pitchers
Wager Amount: $75.45 to win $56002.86
Bet Placed: Saturday, April 7, 2007 at 09:58 am
If Bet: Action Pending WIN on #S-11300158
<o></o>
DETROIT (Maroth) -130 over KANSAS CITY (Meche)
BEST BET<o></o>
<o></o>
The Royals got a fine performance out of free agent Gil Meche to open the season, but with this team he will inevitably get tagged with a number of losses, and the first one should come today. The Tigers are far more talented, and managed to post huge road profits in 2006 (+$1700). The Royals, on the other hand, were only 13-36 against lefthanders (-$1405), and let's not forget how effective Mike Maroth was in nine starts last year before being sidelined with injuries (+$520, 3.56 ERA). The price on this game is very reasonable considering the disparity in talent.
<o></o>
MASTER SPORTS
<o></o>
BRAVES
B. JAYS
Saturday Baseball Grand Slam
Reds (Harang) -165 over Pirates (Armas)
Mets (Glavine) +110 over Braves (Smoltz)
Devil Rays (Fossum) +120 over Blue Jays (Ohka)
Angels (Lackey) -135 over A's (Haren)
Brandon Lang Write Up<o></o>
<o></o>
15 DIME
White Sox
10 DIME
Marlins
5 DIME
A's
Mariners
WHITE SOX
The ppd game yesterday isn't enough to get me off the White Sox.I just like Vazquez all that much more today.First of all, the Twins haven't started 4-0 in over 20 years. There is a reason why. It's just hard to do.Next, I am not a Silva fan. He was 11-15 over 31 starts last year and if you think that isn't very good, look at his numbers at U.S.Cellular Field.In 3 starts, he is 1-2 with an 8.10 ERA giving up 30 hits including 8 homers in just 16 2/3 innings.I will back the White Sox and look for Silva to continue to struggle at Chicago.
MARLINS
I learned since he came up in the big leagues that you ride Dontrelle Willis in April. Simple as that.Willis, who won his first start this year over Washington allowing 1 earned over 6 inning in a 9-2 win.He is 10-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 16 career April starts - his best winning percentage and lowest ERA in any month. The ERA also is the lowest among active pitchers with at least eight lifetime April starts. It doesn't get much better than that.Now he faces a Phillies team that he is 6-5 with an era just over 3.Now the Marlins get to face Brett Myers, who is 5-5 with a 4.44 ERA in 17 career starts against the Marlins. I am riding Willis and his hot April streak today.
SEATTLE
Providing it doesn't snow today, I am backing Jeff Weaver over Sabathia.Sabathia has not been as dominant at home than he has been on the road throughout his six-year career. In 88 home starts, Sabathia is 33-31 with a 3.97 ERA. On the road he is 49-25. He is also just 0-2 with a 3.48 at home versus Seattle.I think the cold weather gets to him today before it gets to Weaver.Jeff Weaver is 5-5 in 12 appearances versus Cleveland and I feel he will be on the money back in the American league.I am on the nice dog Mariners in the frigid cold weather today.
OAKLAND
Like the A's today.I just feel Lackey is going to get hit today.He was let off the hook by the Rangers in a performance that wasn't as good as you would be led to believe.Yes, he did shut them out over 5 innings but he was in trouble almost every inning.The A's match up well against him as does Haren against this Angels lineup.Haren was a hard luck loser in his opening start, going 6 innings allowing no earned runs but took the loss at Seattle.These two battle hard against each other as this series is 1 apiece rolling into today.
My dollar is on the nice dog A's to get another win over their A.L.West rival.
Chris Jordan write-up<o></o>
<o></o>
OVER ChiSox/Twins - Neither pitcher was impressive in their respective roles last season, as Silva was 4-9 with a 7.54 ERA on the highway, and Vasquez is a dismal 0-4 in last five starts versus Minnesota. He has given up 22 earned runs in those games, spanning 30 innings.
When Silva travels to the South Side, he's 0-3, and has given up 18 earned runs dating back to last season. This is an Over.